April 14, 2016
Assuming he is ahead now is it not just a maths spot to see if you have the odds to call.
7b in the pot plus his 21 so 28 you have to call 21 so your pot odds = 21/(28+21) = 43%
Your equity needs to be higher than this.
If you think your Q and J are live then you have 14 outs = 29% ish so fold
Think even if he makes a pot size bet you have to fold here unless you think you had fold equ then you can shove over the top.
If you think he is doing it with a flush draw I think as much times as your Q high is winning it can still be loosing to a flush draw with kx, ax flsh draws. Then there are semi blfss 8x with flsh drw, etc. Shving like this looks to me like one of these type of hands as gets a tonne of fold equity with a lot of equity if called but also could be strong hands that wanted xr the flp and now wants to price out any draws you might have.
Fold in my mind.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
I don’t really see why you wouldn’t bet the flop. If he’s limp-calling such a wide range, you still have a big range advantage on that board and QJ is basically the best bluffing hand in your range.
I think I’m fine with just betting ~4bb on the flop with the intention of either checking behind or jamming the turn depending on what it is and how quickly he calls flop. If he check-jams flop we have around 50% equity versus one pair so we should be fine calling it off.
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