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QJo, 18bb, fish limps, good spot to pick up dead money?
bennymacca
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February 18, 2011 - 10:14 am
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we are very deep into this tourney – 1400 or so started, 135 left. 

i had been crushing, in top 10 for just about the whole tourney, save for the last 30 mins where i lost a couple of flips and unsuccessfully double barrelled to find myself with 18bb. 

 

MP limper is a 58/17 and is clearly a huge fish. 

 

do we ever get folds if we jam here?

 

 

Poker Stars $10 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t400/t800 Blinds + t75 – 9 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: BB = 28.6, t22898
UTG+2: BB = 25.1, t20044
MP1: BB = 65.5, t52401
MP2: BB = 17.6, t14040
Hero (CO): BB = 17.9, t14339
BTN: BB = 53.5, t42839
SB: BB = 57.4, t45915
BB: BB = 46.9, t37518
UTG: BB = 56.9, t45491

Pre Flop: (t1875) Hero is CO with J of diamonds Q of clubs
3 folds, MP1 calls t800, 1 fold, Hero ??

G0liath
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February 18, 2011 - 10:24 am
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in my experience i would say yes. I would prefer to do this with less people behind but his stats are perfect for this play since he is raising 17% preflop the limp is just broadcasting that he's got a marginal hand. I like to have a couple stat up on my hud that help me with this play. 'call open %' and 'limp fold %'. if the call open stat is over 50% dont bother trying, or if the limp fold stat is high then he's open game. ideally CO <20 and LF>80

bennymacca
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February 18, 2011 - 10:31 am
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G0liath said:

in my experience i would say yes. I would prefer to do this with less people behind but his stats are perfect for this play since he is raising 17% preflop the limp is just broadcasting that he's got a marginal hand. I like to have a couple stat up on my hud that help me with this play. 'call open %' and 'limp fold %'. if the call open stat is over 50% dont bother trying, or if the limp fold stat is high then he's open game. ideally CO <20 and LF>80


hand sample was only about 20, so i dont think those stats will be that valid, but i think if someone is playing that many hands, we can conclude fishyness from a small sample, (bayes theorem etc)
No1uNo
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February 18, 2011 - 11:15 am
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I like the shove here. The good news in those stats is that he will raise some. So, I think you can expect a fold more often than not. In this spot, I get called often with small pairs, but that is a good situation.

I have stopped making this shove on players with stats like 30/0. They limp their entire range and often have me crushed.

Krul Hul
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February 19, 2011 - 2:05 am
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I think there is a fold here for the fish. I find alot of times they see this as your shove as in you waited for your hand and its time to go. If they call alot of times your not in that bad of shape.Can get them thinking how they may have to ajust if the table starts to play back at them like that. If he had not been shoved back at like this too many times I think they can fold and just move on to the next hand.

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praetor
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February 19, 2011 - 2:19 am
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    Has he been calling many preflop raises?  If you were to shove, he might consider calling because it would not hurt him much if he lost. I know his sample size is small, but I would looks at preflop fold to raise %.  I think I would just go with a 3x here, unless I thought he would fold to a jam. Agianst a guy with these stats, I like post-flop play. However, I am more on the nitty side. Plus you still have the SB and BB to act, one of them could have woke-up. I am use to opponents calling me wide when they have > 3x my BB, if I don't have a pair it becomes a race.

"Your either in Sheen's Korner or your with the trolls."

bennymacca
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February 19, 2011 - 8:10 am
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FWIW villain limped QQ and i didn't even get a gutshot to sweat 🙁

 

I was happy with my shove but disappointed that i didn't go deeper given that i had more than 100bb for the first 3 hours or so of the tourney. 

savant111
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February 19, 2011 - 8:34 am
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I think this is a spot where meta-game is really important. Your image, your history w villain, the villains potential to spazz out post flop, and as others have mentioned the likelyhood of him limp/calling would all factor in my decision.

 

I like the shove if you haven't played many pots w the villains and he has a high fold to raise % (which at 50/17 he likely doesn't) and if you haven't been messing with him too much (again at 50/17 you probably were).

 

I know we are all trained to jam with 18bbs, but personally I think this is a good spot to overlimp and take a flop in position. Here you can have a lot of options postflop while still keeping the ability to find a good spot to jam later.

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