Hello everyone,

I've been here a coouple of days and watched a couple of vids. In particular TPE Theory: MTT Math

I am now starting to implement the EV calculations into my Hand analysis. I'd like to step through what I am doing with this one and I would welcome any comment as to whether my analysis is correct, or whether I am missing something major. If this should be on another forum btw, please tell me where 🙂

If it is correct, I will then practice this in future until it becomes second nature.

So, here is the hand:

Poker Stars $2.28+$0.22 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t200/t400 Blinds + t50 – 7 players –
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

BTN: BB = 26.5, t10593
Hero (SB): BB = 5.6, t2240
BB: BB = 28.2, t11290
UTG: BB = 4.6, t1830
UTG+1: BB = 11.1, t4443
MP: BB = 19.4, t7770
CO: BB = 4.9, t1950

Pre Flop: (t950) Hero is SB with K A
5 folds, Hero raises to t2190 all in, BB calls t1790

Final Pot: t4730

BB has 2 4

Equity against Villain's range:

No read on Villain. However, he paused quite a long time before callling my all in. He could be mutlitabling, or he could have been thinking about it. If the latter, it could indicate that his calling range is <100% here.

So I am going to do two cases. Villain calls 100% and villain calls 50% ( which just about includes 42s).

Villain calls 100%:

my equity v villain:

I win 65.32%  chips: 4730

I lose: 34.68% chips: 0

Draw: 1.701% chips: 2365

Push EV is [VFold] 0* (1990+950) + [Vcall +Iwin] (0.6532*4730) +[VCall +Draw] (0.017*2365) +[VCall+ Ilose] (0.3468*0)

(inside the Square brackets are the explanations of the calculation)

=3129

Fold eV is [Mystack] 1990

=2.8 Big blinds.

Bust rate: 34.68%

My judgement: Clear shove – although 34% chance of death probably won't get another chance as good as this before I get too small.

Villain calls 50%

My equity v villain:

I win: 63.53% chips 4730

I lose: 36.469% chips 0

Draw: 2.931% chips 2365

Push EV is [VFold] (0.5*1990+950) +[VCall+Iwin] (0.5*(0.6353*4730))+ [VCall+Ilose] (0.5*(0.36469*0)) +[VCall+Draw] (0.5*(0.02931*2365))

=3007.7

FoldEV is [Mystack) 1990

Push EV is worth about 2.5 BB over folding.

My Judgement: Again a clear shove, not that much difference between a 50% and 100% calling range.

So my question is – have I made any glaring errors, should I be doing this differently? I am going through this manual calculation initially even if it is a bit torturous at first because I want it to become embedded in my thinking as quickly as possible – that way I will learn quicker to get a feel for these situations when at the table. Then  at some point I'll switch over to using tools like the provided spreadsheet.

I have one other question. I used Flopzilla to calculate the equity vs range. For some reason my pokerstove no longer works – it tells me my version has expired. Pokerstove.com no longer provides it, I did download a version from somewhere ( 1.21) but that message still appears. Do others also find that, if so, what is the current equity calculator of choice for people? I also use the one in PT4.

Sorry if this is a long post – as I said if there is a better place to post things like this in the forums, please let me know.

CB

Edited: removed the “view hand” link from the hand  which is in effect a spoiler.