December 30, 2015
No Limit Holdem Tournament PokerStars
9 Players
$2.00+$2.00+$0.40
Blinds 70/140 9
UTG turbo-tuborg 5,970
UTG+1 Ortess 13,266
MP1 hozolife 5,472
MP2 AnteBukin 6,877
MP3 andRdn 1,540
CO boxhan 6,604
D Hero 41,970
SB rockandmicha 3,563
BB Mr.Jones2000 11,603
9 399 Hero is BTN 4 6
turbo-tuborg raises to 280, Ortess calls 280, 4 folds, Hero calls 280, 2 folds
3 1,239 3 A 5
turbo-tuborg bets 619, Ortess raises to 1,400
Hi,
No specific reads at this stage. Play is fairly loose in general. Long-running late registration still on. I’m playing very loose aggressive preflop, around 42%, opening pretty wide and getting away with a lot post flop. Basically bullying and getting lucky with tables/seats. I don’t think I’ve ever been 300BB deep in a tournament before. It was kind of a dream situation for a progressive KO tournament, but it creates an interesting dynamic where it can be tempting to take extra risks versus preservation.
I’m pretty confident V in the middle has an A here. Probably not AJ+ flatting form UTG+1 unless AK or AA and planning to squeeze. A2-A5 is very possible including A-high flush draw. I expect a shove to be called.
[Edit: I can’t recall how much the bounties were but starting chips were 3K I believe, so to get to 13k V likely has a couple under his belt. Perhaps as much as a tourney buy-in, FWIW.]
What line would you take here?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Can’t see anything other than raising being correct. Even if it weren’t a KO, I’d want to raise (what would your bluffing range be here, if not this exact hand?), and in a KO, where even if he doesn’t fold it’s a great spot for you… nom nom nom just a great spot to raise. I mean, you’d prefer a fold, but you are a favorite against an Ace! Just raise and pretend you have a set (and yes, you should raise here if you have a set).
December 30, 2015
Foucault said
Can’t see anything other than raising being correct. Even if it weren’t a KO, I’d want to raise (what would your bluffing range be here, if not this exact hand?), and in a KO, where even if he doesn’t fold it’s a great spot for you… nom nom nom just a great spot to raise. I mean, you’d prefer a fold, but you are a favorite against an Ace! Just raise and pretend you have a set (and yes, you should raise here if you have a set).
How do you feel about a shove?
– UTG likely to fold either way.
– I could probably get some non-A-high flush draws and perhaps a few Ax to fold.
– I’d still be 190BB deep if V calls and I if I miss
– I have almost nothing invested so I’d be getting just better than 1:1 and I’m guessing I’m a slight favorite?
—
After typing the above I made a resolution to get deeper into the real numbers. I’ve been playing cash games so long that most decisions I make are more often generalizations of odds. I want to get more sophisticated, ensure my old assumptions are accurate and improve my accuracy. I just downloaded PokerStove, so here is a raw paste of the results for feedback. I think I entered it right…? Do you think I should include hands like 44 or K2s and Q2s?
Board: 3h Ad 5h equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 49.679% 49.56% 00.12% 53483 126.00 { AA, 55, 33, AKs, ATs-A7s, A2s, AKo, ATo-A2o } Hand 1: 50.321% 50.20% 00.12% 54175 126.00 { 6h4h }
P.S. Removing those slow-play hands at the top made almost no difference.
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