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Prog KO Open-Ended Straight Flush On Flop, Super Deep
MovieFX
Vancouver, BC, Canada
Balla
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January 29, 2016 - 6:29 am
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Hand Conversion Powered by WeakTight Poker Hand History Converter
No Limit Holdem Tournament PokerStars
9 Players
$2.00+$2.00+$0.40
Blinds 70/140 9
UTG turbo-tuborg 5,970
UTG+1 Ortess 13,266
MP1 hozolife 5,472
MP2 AnteBukin 6,877
MP3 andRdn 1,540
CO boxhan 6,604
D Hero 41,970
SB rockandmicha 3,563
BB Mr.Jones2000 11,603
Preflop
9 399 Hero is BTN 4 6
turbo-tuborg raises to 280, Ortess calls 280, 4 folds, Hero calls 280, 2 folds
Flop
3 1,239 3 A 5
turbo-tuborg bets 619, Ortess raises to 1,400
Pot 3,258

Hi,

No specific reads at this stage. Play is fairly loose in general. Long-running late registration still on. I’m playing very loose aggressive preflop, around 42%, opening pretty wide and getting away with a lot post flop. Basically bullying and getting lucky with tables/seats. I don’t think I’ve ever been 300BB deep in a tournament before. It was kind of a dream situation for a progressive KO tournament, but it creates an interesting dynamic where it can be tempting to take extra risks versus preservation.

I’m pretty confident V in the middle has an A here. Probably not AJ+ flatting form UTG+1 unless AK or AA and planning to squeeze. A2-A5 is very possible including A-high flush draw. I expect a shove to be called.

[Edit: I can’t recall how much the bounties were but starting chips were 3K I believe, so to get to 13k V likely has a couple under his belt. Perhaps as much as a tourney buy-in, FWIW.]

What line would you take here?

Foucault

TPE Pro
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January 29, 2016 - 1:01 pm
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Can’t see anything other than raising being correct. Even if it weren’t a KO, I’d want to raise (what would your bluffing range be here, if not this exact hand?), and in a KO, where even if he doesn’t fold it’s a great spot for you… nom nom nom just a great spot to raise. I mean, you’d prefer a fold, but you are a favorite against an Ace! Just raise and pretend you have a set (and yes, you should raise here if you have a set).

MovieFX
Vancouver, BC, Canada
Balla
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January 29, 2016 - 3:09 pm
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Foucault said
Can’t see anything other than raising being correct. Even if it weren’t a KO, I’d want to raise (what would your bluffing range be here, if not this exact hand?), and in a KO, where even if he doesn’t fold it’s a great spot for you… nom nom nom just a great spot to raise. I mean, you’d prefer a fold, but you are a favorite against an Ace! Just raise and pretend you have a set (and yes, you should raise here if you have a set).

How do you feel about a shove?

– UTG likely to fold either way.

– I could probably get some non-A-high flush draws and perhaps a few Ax to fold.

– I’d still be 190BB deep if V calls and I if I miss 

– I have almost nothing invested so I’d be getting just better than 1:1 and I’m guessing I’m a slight favorite?

After typing the above I made a resolution to get deeper into the real numbers. I’ve been playing cash games so long that most decisions I make are more often generalizations of odds. I want to get more sophisticated, ensure my old assumptions are accurate and improve my accuracy. I just downloaded PokerStove, so here is a raw paste of the results for feedback. I think I entered it right…? Do you think I should include hands like 44 or K2s and Q2s?

Board: 3h Ad 5h

	        equity              win           tie              pots won     pots tied
Hand 0: 	49.679%  	49.56% 	00.12% 	  53483 	      126.00   { AA, 55, 33, AKs, ATs-A7s, A2s, AKo, ATo-A2o }
Hand 1: 	50.321%  	50.20% 	00.12% 	  54175 	      126.00   { 6h4h }

 

P.S. Removing those slow-play hands at the top made almost no difference.

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