December 30, 2015
No Limit Holdem Tournament PokerStars
9 Players
$1.50+$1.50+$0.30
Blinds 40/80 9
UTG ponpon58 3,962
UTG+1 leeson420 11,823
MP1 Hero 4,204
MP2 preflopfoldu 4,704
MP3 O_o link 2,245
CO fontas21 3,364
D Nomixium 2,075
SB ErnieNorman 3,164
BB alkovasya13 3,466
9 228 Hero is MP1 Q A
1 fold, leeson420 raises to 160, Hero raises to 360, preflopfoldu calls 360, O_o link calls 360, 4 folds, leeson420 calls 200
4 1,668 6 Q 7
leeson420 checks, Hero bets 1,000, preflopfoldu goes all-in 4,332, 1 fold, leeson420 goes all-in 11,451
V1: preflopfoldu is loose-agro in a bad way. I’ve already seen him call all-in with JQ on a J-high flop and win. I’m happy to be in any pot I can against him with the type of hand I had. I was 100% calling him
V2: leeson420 seemed solid from the small sample I saw. I won a decent pot off him blind vs blind and the play wasn’t wacky. His range was wide but not surprising if he was just pressuring me. He wasn’t overactive either.
As I said, I put v1 on a draw or something dominated. v2 is the big question. His play looked consistent with a set (at least that was all that came to mind). Maybe 67s? I don’t want to say more because it could influence your reply….
Do you call here?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
I think it would be good for you to try running some equity calcs on hands like this for yourself. Instead of just asking others what they would do (if you get responses at all, most of them will just be guesses, which won’t really be that helpful to you anyway), post a worst-case scenario for each and a best-case scenario for each and see what your equity looks like. Then you can ask people to comment on whether those ranges seem right/realistic, and I think you’ll get more helpful feedback and also start building your own intuition about equities.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
I missed that this is a KO. It complicates the math behind calling a good deal, and I think it would be a good learning experience for you to do what I suggested above, ignoring the bounties. That said, the bounties should cause leeson to get it in wider against preflopfoldu and both to stack off wider against you, which should widen their range and improve your equity. So if you determine that it seems close, ignoring the bounty effect, then it’s probably a call, even though you don’t actually stand to win any bounties.
December 30, 2015
Thanks for the challenge! I honestly didn’t think to go to the math, which is exactly what I’m working on doing. I just built a read for V1 and acted. I expected this (note all of these simulations are post all-in, when I am trying to make my decision):
Board: 6s Qh 7h equity win tie pots won pots tied Hero: 82.170% 82.05% 00.12% 42241 60.00 { AsQd } V1: 17.830% 17.71% 00.12% 9119 60.00 { ATs-A2s, K8s+, QJs, KQo }
…but when V2 entered it threw me and I immediately thought the worst. Here is a pass based on what I thought I was up against in the moment:
Board: 6s Qh 7h equity win tie pots won pots tied Hero: 06.399% 06.35% 00.05% 23054 175.00 { AsQd } V1: 10.244% 10.20% 00.05% 37009 177.00 { ATs-A2s, K8s+, QJs, KQo } V2: 83.357% 83.36% 00.00% 302589 2.00 { 77-66, 76s }
This pass is an attempt at the widest ranges I think they can have here. V1 is the one I felt was more agro. I’ll post results below because this includes part of V2’s range I didn’t expect to see. Flush draws. I would have given them to V1 but I thought V2 was made:
Board: 6s Qh 7h equity win tie pots won pots tied Hero: 45.464% 45.30% 00.16% 1831848 6549.00 { AsQd } V1: 17.126% 16.86% 00.26% 681944 10577.00 { 77-66, ATs-A2s, K2s+, Q8s+, J8s+, T7s+, 97s+, 86s+, 75s+, 65s, KTo+, Q9o+, JTo, T9o } V2: 37.410% 37.15% 00.26% 1502092 10624.00 { 77-66, AJs-ATs, KTs+, QJs, 76s }
This is very interesting and, in this case, reflected in the actual results. I was ahead and would have held. I’m not sure, even knowing this, that I could have closed my eyes and called. Maybe this is a leak. Based on the information I had about V1 I just excluded draws. Thinking about it more I could have seen his re-raise as what it probably was: he was probably isolating the same player I was trying to, which actually plays into my read that he was solid, paying attention, and made the right play.
[divbox=#eeeeee]Flop
4 1,668 6 Q 7
leeson420 checks, Hero bets 1,000, preflopfoldu goes all-in 4,332, 1 fold, leeson420 goes all-in 11,451, Hero folds
2 18,451, 2 all-in T
2 18,451, 2 all-in Q
preflopfoldu shows three of a kind, Queens Q K
leeson420 shows two pair, Queens and Tens T K
preflopfoldu wins 11,332 (net +6,628)
leeson420 collects 7,119 (net –4,704)
O_o link lost 372
Hero lost 1,372
This has to be near the best-case scenario. They even blocked Ks.
I wasn’t on revenge-tilt or anything, but within the next hour or so I felted both of these players making similar plays where I was stronger. V1 was rude in chat a few times and generally came off as a young online know-it-all. I think with another 20min of play time I could have made the call here. I still think he was playing solid, but I might have given him more credit for making a play. I guess folding isn’t the worst mistake one can make, until it is….gatta love the game!
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Very good work here Movie, glad to see you gained something from it. This should be your first approach to analyzing any hand that involves a call-all-in-or-fold decision (though the math isn’t much different when you are pondering shoving instead of calling – you just have to factor in fold equity).
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