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Probable shove range in 109$ Turbo
OneTime1Time
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November 4, 2013 - 2:37 am
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What is a likely 4b shove range for Villian in this spot? We are still a long ways out from the money. Given your suspected range, are we always shipping it in here? 

 

My HUD has Villian as 29/23/0 over 45 hands(I know it's a small sample). Nothing too out of line from either of us. 

The only history prior to this is Villian open shoving 33 for 16BB about 10 hands prior, me calling with AK. We both hit and he doubled. 

 

Poker Stars $100+$9 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t100/t200 Blinds + t25 – 8 players – View hand 2345022
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

real limper (BB): BB = 39.9, t7971
domino020 (UTG): BB = 27.1, t5415
Tomika8808 (UTG+1): BB = 14.8, t2960
Sharip163 (MP1): BB = 41.0, t8200
Hero (MP2): BB = 36.2, t7238
BryanHuang (CO): BB = 17.4, t3475
dranitos (BTN): BB = 13.0, t2600
mMagic_cards (SB): BB = 10.2, t2030

Pre Flop: (t500) Hero is MP2 with A of spades K of hearts
2 folds, Sharip163 raises to t600, Hero raises to t1650, 4 folds, Sharip163 raises to t8175 all in, Hero??

Poking_Fun
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November 4, 2013 - 5:02 am
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His 4b shove range is probably fairly tight here but I would expect something like 99+, AQ+ at least to GII so for me this is a call 100% of the time, especially in a turbo tournament where your stack quickly comes under pressure from the blinds.

markconkle
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November 4, 2013 - 10:04 am
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I really don't see folding AKo with 36BB unless villain is very tight or you multiway resistance.

CCuster 911
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November 4, 2013 - 5:28 pm
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Dont 3bet! without a plan!

 

That saidd I do call here, mainly because we are getting amazing odds.  We have to call 6500 into 13.5k or so(quick mental math).  So we dont need that great odds.

 

I am also not a huge fan of your sizing, I would have made it like 1400-1450, you are discouring him from making mistakes by making it bigger.

 

I dont put too much emphasis on the rubo structure at this current point, in a couple blind elvels I would though.

For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion

OneTime1Time
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November 4, 2013 - 8:48 pm
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I did have a plan when I 3 bet. The plan was to call it off. It didn't work out so well, as he had a pair and held. Being non results orientated though, I'm not too worried. 

 

It was about 20 minutes later I was messing with Pokerstove and started looking at Equity vs the range I was giving him(66+, AKo, AQo). Against that range, it's an absolute call. Then my friend asked me what my range was, and I'm not that wide there. I'm more 99+, AK, and sometimes AQs. 

 

70,204,464  games     0.004 secs    17,551,116,000  games/sec
Board: 
Dead:  

	        equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	42.458%  	31.67% 	10.79% 	      22235010 	  7572553.50   { AcKd }
Hand 1: 	57.542%  	46.76% 	10.79% 	      32824347 	  7572553.50   { 99+, AKs, AhQh, AsQs, AKo }
 
This is the Stove result for that range. I'm not really sure how I feel about calling AKo here given I'm only 42%. I'm still relatively deep in terms of BB if I fold(26BB - a top 25% stack). While I agree that blinds will begin to pressure us soon, I don't think we need to be really worried about it being a turbo structure yet.
 
Given a pot of t14,926 we expect to get t6269 when calling our remaining t5563. If we 3b/fold here, we can steal the blinds once and come out at almost the same chip count. The difference between the scenarios is one puts my stack at risk, while the other doesn't. 
 
It's possible I'm missing something intrinsic here, hence why I'm posting this. I'm not advocating that this should be a fold. If we have AQo+ in his range, it's an absolute call. If we don't though, I'm not so sure I like it near as much.
Poking_Fun
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November 5, 2013 - 5:02 am
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I calculate that you are calling 5588 into a pot of 9388 (500 antes and blinds + 1650 3bet + 7238 eff stack) which means you are around 1.7/1 or need 37% equity even against the 99+ range.

In reality you probably have to add a couple of additional hands into the mix for 4bet bluffs as well although not too many so you may find the reality here is that you have up to 45% equity in this spot. That's a huge edge and too big to give up on account of taking other opportunities later.

I personally think that turbos you need to take every edge almost as anything you gain by preserving your stack for later has to be dimished by the fact that it only takes a 15-20 minutes card dead period from here and you've potentially blinded away. Get it in and if you lose onto the next knowing that you've made a very profitable play.

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