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Preflop spot w 1010 34bbs deep.
lapp3r30
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December 21, 2013 - 12:56 am
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Deep in tournie.

 

Button raise all in seems like an iso… I mean he still has to have a hand with decent to good equity vs 1010.  He was 32/14/5.  

 

I'm a bit confused… Does he have enough hands I'm not flipping against to call? 

 

Poker Stars – No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t900/t1800 Blinds + t225 – 9 players – View hand 2385718
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

UTG+2: BB = 31.3, t56383
MP1: BB = 40.5, t72961
MP2: BB = 24.2, t43495
CO: BB = 8.8, t15883
BTN: BB = 41.6, t74833
Hero (SB): BB = 34.4, t61980
BB: BB = 17.1, t30696
UTG: BB = 54.5, t98106
UTG+1: BB = 38.7, t69701

Pre Flop: (t4725) Hero is SB with T of spades T of diamonds
5 folds, CO raises to t15658 all in, BTN raises to t74608 all in, Hero????????

WackyJuan
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December 21, 2013 - 12:50 pm
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I would say he is iso'ing with AK and 99-QQ.  I think AA or KK would most likely have flatted to induce action from you and BB.  Vs this range, you're 47.4% in Pokerstove.  You can maybe add AQ and 88 to his range, giving you 54% equity.  But, I have seen players shoving AA and KK in this spot, and I've done it myself (albeit occassionally) when the players left to act are calling stations and I think it's possible they'll come along with any A or pp.

I'd fold here without significant reads on the BTN to know that he's capable of doing this with lots of worse hands.

lapp3r30
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December 21, 2013 - 2:06 pm
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Ya I would have guessed equity was a bit less than that.  

 

As far as AA and KK flatting… Myself, I think it seems to be the only play.  Regardless of player type behind why give worse hands a chance/reason to fold.  If they're a station they may call and you win anyways and, situation and stack dependent, they may think they have fold equity and shove over top themselves… Nothing to do with this hand but I guess I'm asking when it would ever be correct to shove AA/KK when a 15-20 stack shoves and you have 35+bbs??  Can't really think of a spot.

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December 22, 2013 - 1:51 pm
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Pretty easy shove I think, regardless of what Villain does with KK or AA. Recognize that CO ought to be jamming a REALLY wide range, and as a result Button could be isolating pretty wide. I gave them pretty conservative ranges, 30% for CO and about 10% for Button:

Hand 0: 	23.978%  	23.26% 	00.72% 	       5850584 	   179971.67   { 22+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }
Hand 1: 	35.592%  	34.74% 	00.85% 	       8738195 	   213313.33   { 66+, ATs+, KQs, ATo+, KQo }
Hand 2: 	40.430%  	39.89% 	00.54% 	      10032842 	   135483.00   { TT }
 
It's hard for me to imagine Button folding 77 or AJ. I guess AT and 66 are a little closer, even though I'm sure they're profitable shoves. Against the range I gave Button you're also a small favorite in the sidepot.
 
If you have a read that these guys are jamming tighter than this, it gets more complicated. But if you aren't sure, I'd happily to default to getting it in.
lapp3r30
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December 28, 2013 - 11:31 pm
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Thanks Andrew!  I didn't have info. they were jamming tighter but sort of assumed shoves to be generally tighter than the range you gave.  I definately understand neither has to have all that much of a hand.  However, I thought BTN shove would be somewhat tighter than the range you assigned.  Maybe just error in my thinking??

FkCoolers
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December 29, 2013 - 10:59 am
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Spots like this in low buy in big fields are what can win MTT's for you. I don't think we can pass on it for that reason and also because it's hard to find holes in the button range Focault constructed.

smallcat66
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December 29, 2013 - 12:14 pm
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I am a bit confused here. We are not beating much with 10 10. There is a good chance that we are beating nothing and flipping the rest of the time.

Are we as Fk alludes to calling here because it is only a 2 Dollar tourney and one has to take chances in these large fields to try and build a stack to be in a position to win or go very deep.

Would Foucault and Fk recomend this same play on the final few tables of the Sunday Million?.

What I am really asking is, “is this more of a call when you are multi tabling loads of low buy in tourneys than if you are only playing two or three higher buy in tourneys a week”

FkCoolers
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December 29, 2013 - 12:28 pm
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It's important to focus on the spot and not the buy-in, in my opinion. CO to Button seems like a no brainer call to me in all honesty. Plus the Button's HUD stats are far from impressive. It's the spot plus the player that makes me make my decision – not the buy-in. I'm I'm going to pass on what seems like a great spot because the buy in is $215 then that means I should not have registered for that tournament because I am scared money. 

My reason for getting it in is because I believe we both have the equity to do so and because you can't really pass on what might be a 50-50 or slightly better in a huge field like this. 

I really don't think it's a case of beating nothing and flipping vs. the rest. That's basically you saying you'd just fold 99, 88, 77, 66 … that's far too nitty IMO. 

I think Andrew was even pretty generous in not assigning worse Ax hands than AT because I think more suited Ax than that shove for sure, and probably also some offsuit ones. 

We're +EV for a ton of BB's. It's going to take an extremely strong argument for me to think folding is an option here. 

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December 29, 2013 - 2:22 pm
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lapp3r30 said:

Thanks Andrew!  I didn't have info. they were jamming tighter but sort of assumed shoves to be generally tighter than the range you gave.  I definately understand neither has to have all that much of a hand.  However, I thought BTN shove would be somewhat tighter than the range you assigned.  Maybe just error in my thinking??

What range would you give BN? Do you really think he's just going to fold 77? It's not inconceivable for CO's range to be any two.

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December 29, 2013 - 2:36 pm
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smallcat66 said:

I am a bit confused here. We are not beating much with 10 10. There is a good chance that we are beating nothing and flipping the rest of the time.

Are we as Fk alludes to calling here because it is only a 2 Dollar tourney and one has to take chances in these large fields to try and build a stack to be in a position to win or go very deep.

Would Foucault and Fk recomend this same play on the final few tables of the Sunday Million?.

What I am really asking is, “is this more of a call when you are multi tabling loads of low buy in tourneys than if you are only playing two or three higher buy in tourneys a week”

Did you disagree with the ranges I posted? They included several examples of hands Hero is beating and show that overall Hero's equity is quite good. Folding a hand that would be “flipping” (meaning in this context a 55/45 favorite vs something like AKo) when there is already money in the pot is a pretty big disaster.

It's nothing to do with gambling. A call is either +$EV or it isn't. If it isn't, “gambling” isn't going to improve your chances of winning the tournament. If it is, folding isn't going to improve your chances of winning.

The cards don't know what the buy-in is or how many tournaments you're going to play this week.

smallcat66
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December 29, 2013 - 5:38 pm
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My first thought was fold. We have 34bbs so no immediate need to gamble. After Fk and Andrew explained why the short stack could be pushing light and the button knowing this and shoving, I kinda see that maybe we could be in good shape. As regards money already in the pot Andrew, well we have only put in the small blind. Your videos are my favourite Andrew so I really will take on board what you say. I am too nitty, I know that. That is not saying I would call but I will definetly consider it as an option.

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December 29, 2013 - 6:11 pm
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smallcat66 said:

My first thought was fold. We have 34bbs so no immediate need to gamble. After Fk and Andrew explained why the short stack could be pushing light and the button knowing this and shoving, I kinda see that maybe we could be in good shape. As regards money already in the pot Andrew, well we have only put in the small blind. Your videos are my favourite Andrew so I really will take on board what you say. I am too nitty, I know that. That is not saying I would call but I will definetly consider it as an option.

My whole point in my last post was that your decision shouldn't be based on some perceived “need to gamble”. Put people on ranges and figure out how much equity you have. Call when equity > pot odds. When appropriate, factor in ICM. 

It doesn't matter where the money in the pot came from. If there is 1000 in the pot, and someone shoves 10,000 and shows you AKo and you fold TT, you made a huge mistake. If you posted 500 on the BB, then you made an even huger mistake, but even if you were the button, you are getting 1000 in overlay on this “flip”, which, again, you actually are a 55/45 favorite.

Folding away such a big edge is gambling. It is gambling that you are going to get enough “even better spots” to win the tournament while folding what is already a pretty damn good spot. Besides, when those better spots come along, having more chips to invest in them is pretty nice.

smallcat66
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December 30, 2013 - 5:26 pm
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Ok Andrew, I get what you are saying but surely in Tourneys, it is often right to fold when we might be ahead and wait for a better spot. Tournament life has to be taken into account.

FkCoolers
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December 30, 2013 - 10:09 pm
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smallcat66 said:

Ok Andrew, I get what you are saying but surely in Tourneys, it is often right to fold when we might be ahead and wait for a better spot. Tournament life has to be taken into account.

That's more for ICM final table decisions – in this particular spot I don't think this statement applies in the slightest. 

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December 30, 2013 - 10:21 pm
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FkCoolers said:

smallcat66 said:

Ok Andrew, I get what you are saying but surely in Tourneys, it is often right to fold when we might be ahead and wait for a better spot. Tournament life has to be taken into account.

That's more for ICM final table decisions – in this particular spot I don't think this statement applies in the slightest. 

Yeah I definitely wouldn't say it is “often right”. 99% of the time that I hear the phrase “tournament life”, it's being used as a justification for a play I consider to be a mistake. Not winning chips is also a direct threat to your tournament life, and as I argued before, waiting for a better spot is a form of gambling.

takedown
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December 31, 2013 - 8:30 am
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I had a similar spot last week (not the exact same, but close).  Button piles (25bb), sb calls off (13bb), and I have 99 in the bb and called.  The hands I was up against, K8 (initial shover) and A3.  These spots are highly profitable and you can't pass on them, you have a chance to more then double up as a likely favorite in the hand.  How else are you going to get a huge stack late in a tournament, it just doesn't happen often enough with coolers or action flops. You also have to keep in mind that some times you are going to call, be behind and suck out, it's not as though you are dead or that it's a bad thing that you run into the top of his range.  If you are never getting it in bad, then you are likely playing too tight because it's about ranges, not the exact hand they have in any given spot.  Tournament life means something, but it should not drive you away from making +EV decisions. 

WizardZur
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December 31, 2013 - 10:42 am
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I don't disagree with Andrew's reasoning.  Really you can't because it is math, and it is not subjective…so long as his inputs were good the output will be good as well.

 

However, I can conceive of metagame situations where I would fold 10-10 even if I knew my opponent's range was as wide as Andrew describes.  One is near the bubble, if I have a midsize stack, which 34BB qualifies as.  I would just fold and wait for the bubble to burst.  The other is where I feel I have such a significant skill edge over the field that I believe my edge to exceed that offered by the hand.  E.g. if I have a 55% edge in this hand but I feel I am significantly better than the field, my skill edge could exceed the edge I am given here.  However, that is speculative, and you cannot really quantify in numbers your edge in terms of skill.  At any rate, I'd call in this situation. 

markconkle
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December 31, 2013 - 12:51 pm
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A point from Mathematics of Poker that I always like.  Your skill edge comes from making profitable decisions.  If you believe that you shouldn't take profitable decisions because of your skill edge, you are removing your edge to do so.

 

Or in other words, yeah, your skill edge is nice.  But I'm happy using my skill edge with 80BB when I win and not getting my skill edge anymore when I lose.  You have to take the spots you get.

jjpregler
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December 31, 2013 - 6:54 pm
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Yeah, this is a spot to get it in.  I was just having this conversation on another forum.  People overvalue “tournament life.”  Your decision is not about tournament life or is it time to gamble.  It is an equity decision.  If we make the decision with positive equity, we willbe a winner in the long term.  

The way to approach this hand is first to put your opponent's on a range.  I like to first start with the ranges they are supposed to have in this spot, then adjust form there if it seems the players are making an error in one dorection or another.  

the CO is supposed to have a range of about top 42% of hands.  So the button can play at least top 20% of hand profitably here.  Our equity against those two ranges is 44%.

Admittedly, in real world situations, in lower stakes games, the button may not call off quite that wide, even though he probably should.  So let's pare him down to in general 10%.  We still have 40% equity in that case.  

40% of the time we scoop both pots for a profit of 82.4k

22% of the time the CO win the main pot and we win the side pot 53% of the time versus the button for a total of 12% of the time and we 15.8k in those cases.

48% of the time we bust out and lose 61.9k.

(40% * 82.4k) + (12% * -15.8k) + (48% * -61.9k) = 1.36k profits cEV

 

You have to remember as well, this is your worst case scenario.  I've seen players snap off with weak aces and small pairs in lower stakes games as well.  They figure since the CO is going in so wide, that any A is well ahead of his range.  

lapp3r30
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January 4, 2014 - 12:09 am
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Thanks guys!  It looks like a few people learnt a few things… So that's great.

 

Thanks Andrew for all the input… You're full of “poker wisdom one liners”… cool

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