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July 17, 2016
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Hi Tpe!!! This is a Full Ko 20e in pokerstars.es. 80 paid and we are 90 players. I cannot convert this hand because my internet crashed and I played this hand with the phone. But it is easy to explain. I am utg 7 bb left w 89s. I cover the Bb and the sb too in chips. Only two big stacks and one of them is in utg+1. The other one is in the Hj. In a frezzout I am quite sure that this is a good spot to openshove. But here, with the bubble, the ko s and the structure (is a turbo tournament) I am not sure. And I don’t want to be results oriented cause I ended loosing. My image is so tight in this table. Don,t move in three orbits. Card dead and no options to make any sort of move. So.. May I have to fold or shove? What are the things you use to see if it is a good fold or not? Good shove or not? Thanks in advance.
July 7, 2012
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Was this a progressive bounty tournament? If so how much was the bounty on your head? Also, how much was the bounty on the heads of the blinds (you said you had them covered so you would win the bounty if you won the hand), and what was the min cash? Where I am going with this is that with 7bbs and the blinds coming through its very unlikely you can fold your way past the bubble. Also, you have very little fold equity against the bigger stacks or indeed the stacks shorter than you in the blinds as they will have to gamble before the bubble bursts as well.
Risk of folding and not make the bubble (and given your stack size, not getting anymore bounties) V Risk of getting it in now and busting V Getting it in now and taking the blinds V Getting it in now and winning against one of the blinds and taking a bounty V against one of the big stacks and just chipping up (with still only a slim chance of making the bubble)
There are a lot of variables to consider. But, with your stack it was time to gamble and that hand is not a bad one to take a gamble with so for me I think you made the right play. Had you been down to 82 players in the exact same spot however I would say fold.
Not sure that helps much, but with all the right info as requested above I am sure a maths guru could churn a complex equation for you 
July 17, 2016
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Turbulence said
Was this a progressive bounty tournament? If so how much was the bounty on your head? Also, how much was the bounty on the heads of the blinds (you said you had them covered so you would win the bounty if you won the hand), and what was the min cash? Where I am going with this is that with 7bbs and the blinds coming through its very unlikely you can fold your way past the bubble. Also, you have very little fold equity against the bigger stacks or indeed the stacks shorter than you in the blinds as they will have to gamble before the bubble bursts as well.Risk of folding and not make the bubble (and given your stack size, not getting anymore bounties) V Risk of getting it in now and busting V Getting it in now and taking the blinds V Getting it in now and winning against one of the blinds and taking a bounty V against one of the big stacks and just chipping up (with still only a slim chance of making the bubble)
There are a lot of variables to consider. But, with your stack it was time to gamble and that hand is not a bad one to take a gamble with so for me I think you made the right play. Had you been down to 82 players in the exact same spot however I would say fold.
Not sure that helps much, but with all the right info as requested above I am sure a maths guru could churn a complex equation for you
Thanks Turbulence. I appreciate your response. Yes, it is a progressive ko. I only had 13.50 on my head so nothing too big. And I really think that I can pass the bubble because there are many players around 6 7 8 and 9 bb also ( I was in 78 position at this time). The mincash is 18 and another good question is if I had to play for mincash or for try to win. My shove there is because I only expected to get called by the blinds with a real hand so pushing me in utg after don’t moving in 3 orbits could be very respected, and if get called by the HJ try to get at least some equity which I thing 89s could have with the range I put on him. Not sure about this hand. All day thinking about this spot. Maybe we can pass it and gamble after the bubble. Can I recover my hands that I played in my phone? Maybe with the exact information we see this clearly. Thanks.
June 2, 2013
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I dont like the open shove EP with 89s, your stack is not big to increase FE, and since there is a bounty on you, people may call light than they usually do, hands like QJo, T9s, weak A suited… and you will be behind, I rather shove it from FP, even considerin playing for the win. I think they will call us too often to be profitable.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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This is really close. I think the main defining factor is what kind of player is in the big blind – the BB is the most likely to call you. If the BB is quite tight then you might get called something like 5-10% less often overall which might push this towards being a shove.
If it’s a regular knockout rather than a progressive, I think this shifts things closer towards being a shove, since people aren’t going to call crazy wide if you just have one regular bounty on your head – bounties count for less as the tournament gets further towards the money. However, since it’s a progressive that might change things a little, but you don’t have a big bounty so maybe not that much.
I also think you’re probably over-estimating your chances of getting into the money. When you’re UTG you’re going to have less than 5.5 big blinds within the next two hands.
In Nash terms if we’re not considering bubble factors or knockout factors I can see this being something like +0.2bb or +0.3bb, in which case we need to be very, very confident that we get to make the money if we fold here, since a 20bb/100 or 30bb/100 spot at 7bb deep is hard to find. If there were maybe 83 or 84 players left I might fold here, but with 90 we’re still fairly likely to have to play another orbit or so. Hard to find better spots than this in the next 8 hands.
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