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(0 votes) 
November 21, 2013
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This is from the final table of WSOP NJ 10k guaranteed . Villain has been on the tight side, probably tightest at the table. No HUD stats, last few orbits he had shoved one or two hands, no showdowns.
Payouts: (Estimates)
990
1170
1425
2400
4300
Stack Sizes
Hero: 916,500
Villain: 285,000
UTG +1 : 1,069,000
Button : 462,000
Small Blind : 387,000
Blinds are 10k/20k/2k
Villain shoves 283k from UTG
Folded to Hero in BB with Ah10h
Hero:?
I feel like this is a fold, due to the villain being relatively tight, keeping that stack preserved is more important than the potential amount gained, and the table wasnt ridic tough (Wouldnt say it was easy tho, somewhere in between)
November 4, 2013
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This one is kind of tough, based off what I'm getting from ICMizer. I do have to note I'm using the Sunday Million payout structure, as payout structure will have a big effect here, and I'm just too tired to make a new one right now.
It will largely come down to the true % of his range he's shoving here. If he's shoving 8%, it's a fold(Loss of 2.5BB). However, 8% is way too small for any reasonably good player to be shoving here. At 14% we are pretty much break even. At a 20% shove range from him, it's a snap call(Gain of 2.5BB).
I would expect the latter two numbers are more representative of shove range %'s for players here. So I'm calling, although I wouldn't exactly expect to be thrilled about it, and I'm definitely never surprised for him to have a better kicker than me.
February 10, 2014
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Yeah, I'm calling this. You should be ahead of his range enough of the time to make this a profitable call.
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
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I call herre two. This is probably fairly close in ICM, but stack consdierations make this is an easy call imo. You will still have voer 30 BBs and still be in 2nd with abusable shorties that are easy to exploit in terms of tuure ICM situations, IF you lose. THis means programs liek ICMizer are gonna over value the hurt to your future EV by losing this hand.
Obviously you will also have these same spots if you fold, but you also dont have a chance of eliminating a player.
My range is probably A9s+ ATo+, KQs, 66+
If this was for a larger part of your stack to where future spots to exploit ICM become less(you have elss manuverability in your stack), then I would fold.
This is all under the assumption he is shoving about as wide as he should. I owuld probably be calling anyhting I thought was >50% agaisnt his range(although we need less for cEV, I do factor in some ICM considerations)
For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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I don't think I can fold here either. Cody makes a good point about ICMIZER not factoring in future edge. I think I would fold A9s or ATo if the villain is tight but it's tough to fold this one.
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