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December 24, 2013
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This is tournament 1 of my poker journey. Effective stacks are 80bb at level 1 of this $40+15 satellite into the monthly Jacksonville $165+35 50k guarantee. I bought my ticket for $30 and would never play this otherwise, as it just seems like even with big edges against players, rake is difficult to overcome.
Play is 6 handed
Utg (late 30s bro-ey looking guy who raised K8o 4 handed, ckd back T6x, called my turn (7) and river (2) bets thinking I've got a million bluffs or something not sure) limps in for 50.
Cutoff, middle aged older woman with sunglasses raises to 150. she just sat down.
I'm in the button with AsQs. I flat. (If I think she's raising a possibly wide range, pairs, broadway cards), I should be 3betting for value. I elected to flat because I wasn't sure what range to give her, but assumed I would be able to narrow her range post flop being in position.
folds back to utg who raises to 550. Based on his demeanor, I didn't think he'd have AA/KK here, thought it was possible he had mid pocket pairs and AK. I'm hesitant to exactly give him a super narrow strong range based on “live reads.”
Lady calls.
I call getting 2.75:1 I need to have 27% equity in the pot. The pot will be 1650 and we have an spr of 2.1. Based on the guy's check back with King high heads up earlier where a cbet is almost mandatory, I thought he'd play very straight forward post and the lady I almost disregarded after calling. She never has QQ+/AK in my mind.
flop (1725) QxTx4s.
Both check to me. I believe lady's range is broadways and pocketpairs preflop, but is now going to be mostly pocket pairs. I believe guys range is not going to be strong given his check. It could be a good spot for him to check something like AA because he likely thinks I'm this aggro monkey teenager. I'm trying to target straight draws, second pairs. I bet 700. utg calls. lady folds and complains she missed her set. I don't think he would check QQ or TT here based on his demeanor, but I'm hesitant to make these assumptions.
turn (3125) 9r.
utg checks. I check. (I believe this is a mistake even with a low spr because I can still get value from AJ/AK/AT, I give him a free river. Rivers that I don't believe I can value bet are J, K, 8, so potentially I'm only giving him a chance to hit 3 outs, 2 outs, 4 outs, 6 outs depending on what part of his range he has.
river (3125) Tr.
He checks to me. I bet 800, which was definitely a “clicking buttons” moment for me. At the time, I thought his range was almost always Ace high and maybe AT. Because he called with King high earlier, I thought I could get him to call with AK and AJ for small bets.
He calls and shows me AKo. While I'm happy that he had a hand I thought he might have, I'm always hesitant to be happy with how I played. So here we are.
Let's get discussion going everyone. Does anyone prefer flatting over 3betting, and does anyone ever fold to the utg 3bet just to see what he turns up with? Does anyone bet turn, shove river or bet turn, check river.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Interesting hand and I like the way you've analyzed it already. I do think that AQs ought to be a default 3b unless you have reason to believe the lady IS strong (ie it shouldn't be “I wasn't sure she wasn't strong so I just flatted), but I doubt it makes a big difference vs calling. The deeper you are, the more you need to 3b.
Flop bet should be larger. Plenty of worse hands will happily call 1000, including straight draws and worse pairs. Why did you rule out broadway cards for the lady, just b/c she didn't bet?
Turn should definitely be a bet vs this guy. What to do on the river will depend on the card and maybe even his demeanor but there are definitely some blanks where I'd default bet.
I'm OK with the small river bet, you need to target pretty weak hands at this point as I don't think he checks many Qs on the flop.
December 24, 2013
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“ie it shouldn't be “I wasn't sure she wasn't strong so I just flatted”
Thanks for pointing that out. I need to think about it differently than that.
To answer your question, I felt the lady's range was truncated because of her check. If the preflop raiser checked to her and she held broadway, I think she'd bet most of that. However, I don't think that's necessarily true as a lot of broadway has just second pair and she has me to act behind.
I agree I should I bet bigger on the flop as well. All of the hands that call 700 are still calling an extra few hundred. This also makes it an easy all in shove on the turn.
I agree checking the turn was a mistake and I should have cbet. My backer told me the same thing and frankly I don't have much of an answer for why I didn't. That's not important, as I know to do it and will in the future.
The flop cbet would allow me to shove the turn, and I should be front loading my bets here because much of the ranges I'm extracting value from have top pair or second pair or draws when draw completing cards are still possible.
Thanks for helping me think this through more.
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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i personally dont love calling pre, despite pot odds, particularly because you'll be slam-dunk getting it in with any pair, straight draw, or flush draw, (or combination thereof) with an SPR of 2. vs a limp/rr, you're not going to be very psyched about your hand on most flops (as demonstrated by your play on this one).
once you've called, i think its clear we need to bet flop + cram most turns, and live with the fact that he plays AA/KK like a weirdo sometimes. if he is calling river with AK high, K8 high; i dont think its impossible we can size it on flop where we can shove turns and fidn him trying to be a hero vs “psycho teenager.”
my big point here is that calling pre isnt going to be very long-run profitable if we aren't 1) collecting full doubles in spots like this or 2)bluffing these two off their equity if/when we miss.
to your point about 3betting lady OR, i think flatting when IP is more than fine when readless, but sometimes i 3bet/f here also, especially 6-max. seems funny that we would have 3b/gotten limp-4b/probably folded here. oops!
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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If you believe you can profitably get it in on 33% of flops, I don't see why you'd fold pre getting 2.75:1?
December 24, 2013
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MovesLikeDarvin said:
my big point here is that calling pre isnt going to be very long-run profitable if we aren't 1) collecting full doubles in spots like this or 2)bluffing these two off their equity if/when we miss.
I like this point. I need to be betting flop in a manner to shove the turn overall in this type of situation, which includes times I miss. My understanding of this is similar to set mining and not getting the full value when we hit often enough to make it profitable.
December 24, 2013
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Foucault said:
If you believe you can profitably get it in on 33% of flops, I don't see why you'd fold pre getting 2.75:1?
I think he means, and correct me if I'm wrong, that while we'd be getting it on that many flops/turns, we may not be correct to do overall with a big enough edge, given the uncertainty of the situation preflop with a limp/3bet, and we'd be better off using our stack in bigger edge situations.
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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this is approximately what i mean. your edge in this field is not going to come via high-variance, low-SPR situations in multi-way pots for 80bb at level 1 of a satty.
disclaimer: i am certain foucault is a much more mathematically-oriented player than i, and his (superior) calculations of cEV in these predicaments will prove more than useful.
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