Nice job p0larbear, I think you're on the right track. You're definitely right about the button's range being too wide to check-fold the flop. Although it's true that Hero will often lose the pot if the turn bet is called or raised, that doesn't necessarily make the turn bet bad (though it does give incentive to bet small).

If we had reason to think that button would keep bluffing at a high frequency, then check-calling again is best. I expect many players to check behind here often, though, first because many people just don't double barrel that often and secondly because this is a good card for Hero's range. When Hero check-calls the flop, Ax and 9x make up the majority of her range.

This makes it very unappealing for Villain to bet the turn either as a bluff or as a value bet with all but the strongest Ax. Many Ax hands will now prefer to check back turn and either call or value bet rivers.

Because this is a card that benefits Hero's range significantly, Villain will want to check it often, which gives Hero a lot of incentive to develop a donking range.

There are many hands in Hero's range that would prefer Villain not check behind, and when you bet all of them you can create a nice, balanced range that is very difficult for Villain to play against:

a. Monsters like 8x do not want to give Villain the opportunity to pot control. Donking these hands extracts more value than checking from Ax and avoids giving a free card to draws. It also protects the weaker hands in Hero's betting range by punishing Villains who float or bluff-raise this bet.

b. Vulnerable hands like 99 do not want Villain to get a free card that could improve him to the best hand or set up profitable bluffs. Betting with these hands serves mainly to prevent Villain from realizing his equity with weak hands.

c. Floats/draws also want to prevent Villain from playing pot control. Leading the turn can force Villain to fold some better hands that might improve or have an easier time calling on the river. This bet also sets up double barrels and punishes Villains who fold to much to either the turn donk or to a river bet. Because there are many draws in this range, Hero will have plenty of value betting and bluffing opportunities on a variety of rivers.

Besides the fact that hands in categories (b) and (c) would prefer to make small bets anyway, there are several theoretical reasons why Hero ought to bet small:

a. Even before we see the turn, Hero's range is stronger than Villain's. Villain can and probably should bet any two cards on the flop, whereas even allowing for some OOP floating Hero will still fold a lot of air to the flop bet.

b. The 8 is a better card for Hero's range than for Villain's. Hero probably has more 8x in his pre-flop range than Villain, and after calling the flop her range is certainly more 8-heavy than Villains, especially as many players will check back some 8x here in Villain's shoes.

c. Hero's donking range is pretty strong. It contains a fair number of nutted hands, hands like 99 with a good bit of showdown value, and even most of the weakest hands are relatively high-equity draws. Consequently, Villain can't profitably call the bet with weak hands even when getting pretty good odds.

Hero's sizing is about as big as I'd go, and I think 1/3 or even 1/4 of the pot is not out of the question. Very nice hand Cass, and nice post P0loarbear!

Sorry, I didn't mean to imply I'd ever bet 99 on the river. I just mean bluffing/value betting opportunities with other parts of your range.

folding_aces_pre_yo said:

nice post.

 

I'd play my value/bluff range this way, so that could be c/c flop and lead turn , though i wouldnt donk lead a hand like 66/77/99/TT/JJ/QQ/KK here , i'd c/c and re-evaluate river.

 

So lets say our turn bet gets called by v and the river is K  ,what would villians range look like?

 

when v calls turn there range will consist of flush draws , Ax , PPs (hands with SDV)

 

so which line do u guys take otr ,c/c or b/f? 

If you're only donking Tx and bluffs on the turn, then you should bet a lot bigger than what I recommended for the wider range.

Why are c/c or b/f my only options on the river? Seems like a pretty clear c/f to me. A lot of his heart draws paired the K, and you block some busted hearts.