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April 5, 2014
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Im not sure about the call here with our stack. It seems a bit to big for at best a coinflip or is my nit showing?
Blinds are 100/200 wwith a 20 ante.
Ive got 6883 in chips.
Shover has 5740 in chips.
Merge - $0+$0|<> NL - Holdem - 8 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 BB: 33.74 BB (VPIP: 15.79, PFR: 11.11, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 19) Hero (UTG): 34.42 BB UTG+1: 52.28 BB (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 16) UTG+2: 53.97 BB (VPIP: 13.33, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16) MP: 63.67 BB (VPIP: 43.75, PFR: 18.75, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16) MP+1: 30.21 BB (VPIP: 12.50, PFR: 6.25, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16) CO: 28.8 BB (VPIP: 9.09, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 11) BTN: 60.29 BB (VPIP: 18.75, PFR: 13.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 16) 8 players post ante of 0.1 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB Pre Flop: (pot: 1.8 BB) Hero has T
T
[color=red]Hero raises to 2.5 BB[/color], fold, fold, [color=red]MP raises to 4 BB[/color], fold, [color=red]CO raises to 28.7 BB and is all-in[/color], fold, fold, fold, Hero?
May 4, 2014
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Don't know what the buyin or level was, but from the lol-sample size of 11 hands.. I'd maybe lean towards a call. I think we're honestly against a few smaller pairs and a lot of AJo+, ATs+ kind of hands, looks like a squeeze that expects a couple of folds. You would also expect considering how deep we are that villain would probably 4bet smaller for value with bigger pairs. Then again this is without knowing the stakes, level, etc
April 5, 2014
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I added blinds and the important stack sizes to the OP.
March 11, 2014
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I think the CO could have quite a wide range even though his stats are fairly tight over a small sample. He still has 28BB but getting short…..your open was fairly standard and MP's 3 bet is so small that he may not see a lot of strength and thinks he has a good chance of scooping this pot if he gets through you. 10 10 is a very good hand and MP seems a little fishy playing almost 44% of hands. I think I would reshove and if MP wants to come along ok.
I put your hand in Equilab and gave the CO top 11% of hands 55+, A 10 s+, AJ o+ and MP top 15% of hands and you're still almost 38% equity against both of them. If we think that CO has a capped range and that he would 4 bet smaller with AA, KK you do even better. CO might have just seen a good spot and went for it. I think your 10s are too strong to fold.
Not an expert though – just don't like folding 10 10 in this spot. Sometimes he's going to have a better pair or outdraw you with broadways but sometimes you're going to almost double
November 17, 2013
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Peppergrinder, I'd have to disagree – seems like you're giving too much credit to the CO for being competent enough to reship 11% here. I'd have to have more info on the tournament / buy-in / player pool before making that kind of read. Otherwise seems like a straightforward fold…
March 26, 2013
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Not in a position to run any numbers on this but instinctively it looks like a fold although very likely close.
I would probably range the CO at something like 99+, AQ+ if he is capable of seeing the MP 3b as weak (often those really small 3b are weak hands taking initiative from my experience) but certainly tighter if he is not capable of sensing weakness.
Remember, the CO here is seeing an UTG raise + MP 3b and then is still willing to commit a 28bb stack with players to act behind who can also wake up with hands and eliminate him from the tournament. Also, you cannot assume he would 4b with AA/KK either as some players will shove these hands because it looks weaker than a 4b.
Also, very limited numbers of hands but at this table it looks like only 1 hand has been 3b in 16 or so played by 8 players so it does suggest the table overall is probably on the tighter side when it comes to more aggressive actions.
Anyway, I think readless I probably fold in this spot, however, I encourage you to think about what range the opponents have preflop 'realistically' and also ensure that when you consider a 'range' you also think about weighting the range. For example, villains will turn up more often here with TT+ in my opinion than say 55-99, AT, AJ etc.
May 20, 2013
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Maybe I am looking at this wrong, but when the CO ships, he must clearly know these two things:
MP: 63.67 BB (VPIP: 43.75) Even if he has no HUD, he can see the MP stack and knows the guy is playing on the looser side. I now ask myself, what does the CO: 28.8BB EXPECT to happen. I think he anticipates the Hero folding and subsequently the MP calling If he expects the MP to call, then he is rarely light. Therefore I am folding here. I am expecting to see AK, JJ+. I dont even expect to see AQ here.
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