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November 3, 2014
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Pokerstars: $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit – Level II (15/30)
Table '1148756076 147' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: MarkFallen (3000 in chips)
Seat 2: porndiamond (2780 in chips)
Seat 3: MoneyMakerUk (3595 in chips)
Seat 4: lahetyyp10 (2810 in chips)
Seat 5: TommyCrown (3520 in chips)
Seat 6: abelgeneral (2940 in chips)
Seat 7: robertstar71 (3045 in chips)
Seat 8: videoleif (2565 in chips)
Seat 9: lambros45 (3380 in chips)
MarkFallen: posts small blind 15
porndiamond: posts big blind 30
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TommyCrown [Qd Kh]
MoneyMakerUk: folds
lahetyyp10: calls 30
TommyCrown: raises 60 to 90
abelgeneral: folds
robertstar71: folds
videoleif: calls 90
lambros45: folds
MarkFallen: folds
porndiamond: folds
robertstar71 is sitting out
robertstar71 has returned
lahetyyp10: calls 60
*** FLOP *** [9h 7d 2d] Pot 315
lahetyyp10: checks
TommyCrown: bets 180
videoleif: folds
lahetyyp10: calls 180
*** TURN *** [9h 7d 2d] [3h] Pot 675
lahetyyp10: checks
TommyCrown: bets 360
lahetyyp10: calls 360
*** RIVER *** [9h 7d 2d 3h] [5h] Pot 1395
lahetyyp10: bets 510 and has 1670 behind which is covered, whilst pot is now 1905
Over just 16 hands the villain has 25/6 stats, 29% open limping with 100% call and 0 for 1 fold to cbet , so I think he has the ability to turn up with any 2 suited.
On the flop I think the cbet speaks for itself with 2 overcards and the lead, and then follow through on the turn to get rid of any floating Ax hands (especially Adx). I think the turn call denotes FDd, 9x, 7x and possibly some backdoor 7xhh/2xhh, am ruling out sets as I would expect c/r on 2 flush board.
Villian then bets 36% into the river pot. The only value hands I see are Ad4d/6d4d/8d6d for back door straight, set of 55’s and backdoor hearts (although some of these would x/c, whilst I also have Kh), whilst possible bluffs include busted diamonds and weak 7x/9x/3x/5x turning into bluffs.
I felt that if I bluffed into this I have a chance of getting Ax, 7x, 9x and diamonds that hit a 3 or 5 to fold. On the flip side, this is a limpy/cally player who has come out betting against a player representing a big hand (overpairs at least).
Based on the pot I think this needs to work at least 50% of the time (he has pot sized bet left behind), but I would be left crippled at 15/30 level if called (all calls beat me), whilst folding leaves me 90-95bb and still in tourney at early stage.
Is this a good bluffing opportunity or should I just chalk it down and wait for better?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Hi Percy, thanks for posting this hand. I've got a lot to say about it:
1. This is a minor point, but I'd suggest raising to 120 rather than 90 pre-flop. You'd like either to force your opponent to put a good bit of money in from behind or fold, and ideally to give him a bit of decision between the two. I think most limpers will call 90 without thinking twice.
2. I don't agree about the flop being a straight-forward bet. You are going to have a LOT of missed overcards here relative to your value range, and while you're right that having position, a stronger range, and a lot of money behind gives you room to bluff at a high frequency, I still think bluffing 100% of your misses will reward a loose opponent (which it sounds like this player is) for his loose calls. I also think you're reading too much into 16 hands' worth of stats. Yes, he seems on the loose-passive side (the very fact that he is limping suggests that), but that doesn't mean he's limp-calling any two suited cards from early position. This is a good board for a range of pocket pairs and suited connectors, which is what many people's limping ranges will look like.
3. The turn is a blank and it's OK/correct to follow through with some bluffs. You make it sound like you are just automatically betting again because Villain could have Ax or a flush draw, though, which is probably not a good idea. Just because you can identify a few better hands that will fold does not make a bluff profitable. On top of that, I don't think you can say with much confidence that Villain actually will have Ax in his range or that he would fold a flush draw (I'd expect not).
4. You're starting to contradict your earlier plans. You say you are betting turn to make him fold Ax, but then you are still putting Ax in his range when he bets river. A bluff will risk 2180 to win 1905, so it would need to succeed more than 53% to break even. As you say, though, the chips you could potentially lose here are worth more than what you could win, so in practice I'd want at least a 60% success rate, maybe even higher, to justify a risk with most of my chips in a tournament where I anticipate having a big skill edge. Even if you are going to bluff occasionally in this spot, you need to justify why you should do it with these two cards. Otherwise you will end up bluffing way too often relative to your value range, and if your opponent turns out to be overly loose (most are, at these stakes) you'll be playing right into his hands. If anything, I'd suggest assuming that this opponent will fold LESS than he should and thus rarely/never bluffing in this spot, and I certainly wouldn't adopt a strategy of being imbalanced towards bluffs, which it seems like you would be.
February 2, 2015
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I just feel like he has too many pocket pairs and suited connectors in his range that connect with this board to make it correct to bluff on the river if it leaves your chip stack crippled so early. You represented an overpair pretty well, but he's either 1) not afraid of it, 2) believes you would fold it to a 36% river bet when a scare card comes out (definitely not a given), or 3) thinks you have a lot of air/busted draws in your range as well. When a passive player suddently becomes aggressive, it's a good time to reevaluate. It is a great bluff opportunity for him on the river if he has air, but the reason it's such a great bluffing opportunity is because so many draws got there, which are all in his range as well. It's okay to get bluffed off here the smallish percentage of time that I think he is doing it while preserving your stack and looking for better spots.
September 14, 2014
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Foucault said:
On top of that, I don't think you can say with much confidence that Villain actually will have Ax in his range or that he would fold a flush draw (I'd expect not).
Are you saying that if hero knows that v won't fold a flush draw it wont be profitable to bluff turn?
If thats the case hero could still bluff turn and then bet small otr as v ain't calling with there airballs , basically just because a bluff ain't profitable on the turn dont mean it wont be profitable on the river, if anything v is putting in more money in the pot when we know we can get him to fold otr
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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folding_aces_pre_yo said:
If thats the case hero could still bluff turn and then bet small otr as v ain't calling with there airballs , basically just because a bluff ain't profitable on the turn dont mean it wont be profitable on the river, if anything v is putting in more money in the pot when we know we can get him to fold otr
How do you know you can get him to fold river? I mean obviously if we knew he had a flush draw that would be the play, but in this case V having a flush draw is the best case scenario, and even that requires a good deal of hoping on Hero's part.
September 14, 2014
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how do i know that i can get villian to fold , good question andrew.
well , we can look at how v has played previous hands , there tendencies , also we can try figure how wide our bluffing range should be in particular situations
Looking back at this hand villians range looks very marginal , v has c/c 2 streets on a draw heavy board , the only hand that got there otr is 68s for the straight , v could have also have 7x 9x which should be folding to a third barrel but if we know he's not folding those then bluffing would be incorrect also all flush draws have missed. If we think v is a loose passive calling station and he's not going to fold that often then not then yeah it's not a good idea to bluff him what we can do though is then exploit our opponent by bluffing less with only the best bluffing candiates.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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folding_aces_pre_yo said:
how do i know that i can get villian to fold , good question andrew.
well , we can look at how v has played previous hands , there tendencies , also we can try figure how wide our bluffing range should be in particular situations
Looking back at this hand villians range looks very marginal , v has c/c 2 streets on a draw heavy board , the only hand that got there otr is 68s for the straight , v could have also have 7x 9x which should be folding to a third barrel but if we know he's not folding those then bluffing would be incorrect also all flush draws have missed. If we think v is a loose passive calling station and he's not going to fold that often then not then yeah it's not a good idea to bluff him what we can do though is then exploit our opponent by bluffing less with only the best bluffing candiates.
Why should he be folding 7x or 9x? If Hero is jamming all of his unpaired overcards as well as all overpairs, then Villain has a pretty easy call with 7x.
September 14, 2014
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Well it does depend on how villian percieves hero, readless though the reason why v s hould be folding those is because v only beats bluffs , so basically v will be playing 7x 9x as a bluff catcher if he calls hero's river jam.
hero has represent ed strength through out the very beginning of the hand , if i was v i'd be worried if hero won't show up with a hand that beats me , i'd have to be pretty sure that hero has a high bluffing frequency for me to call the jam , like for instance if hero's the type to triple barrel oftenly then i'd be more inclined to call , obv the odds we also dertmine that too and how the hands played out , if there's any dymanic going on ect , the more info you have the better descion you can make, thats what im trying to say.
you also said that if hero is jamming all his unpaired then its a easy call , my question is what makes you think v is capable of knowing hero would do this?
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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The point I’m trying to make is that you’re making assumptions about how Villain will play, which is fine if you have reads to back them up, but often you don’t. That’s why your default should be to bluff some hands and not others. The question to ask in these spots is not should I bluff, yes or no, but rather what should my bluffing range look like? I don’t think KQ is anywhere near the best hand for taking this line, so if you are going to take it with KQ and all worse hands, then you are going to end up bluffing too much.
Villain doesn’t have to think or know that that’s what you’re doing to exploit you. He could just be a loose player who makes the mistake of calling too much on the river. However, that “mistake” will actually be a profitable exploitation of a player who bluffs too much.
Just because you’re representing a strong hand doesn’t mean your opponent will or even should fold. There are plenty of situations where it’s correct to call with a hand that only can beat a bluff, even when all hands better than yours are perfectly plausible for your opponent.
September 14, 2014
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Fair enough andrew.
I guess I bluff to much then , if i was hero in this hand , i would have bet flop and bet turn and if v had checked the river i would had bet again. when v leads out though , i would not be raising i will just fold , that's the only difference.
The thing is though , if we know v is a loose passive player , when we get to the flop we can consider it to be a number 3 spot , our bluffing range should consist of hands like overcards (KQ) and any selebence of a draw like a gut shot or a backdoor draw. however the stats on this opponent show that he calls too often , so i guess this will be a numer 3 spot when we get to the flop that is.
anyhow lets say we are readless , its early in the tourney and this exact hand happened ,I'm going to assume that this wil be anumber 3 spot right? which is betting your flush draws and straight draws. I.e T8o KdQd
November 3, 2014
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I was also wondering in retrospect what a jam looks like from villians perspective… when he bets I can only confidently shove a backdoor flush… would you agree that most of my represented range (AA-99) should/would call even though the limp/caller is now betting on draw heavy board… folding may make me susceptible to exploitation…. a jam therefore looks like a bluff due to remote chance of backdoor flushes and villians 2-1 is getting decent odds to bluff catch (which given his early tendency suggests he is capable of doing).
My plan was to check the river as I felt the villian would continue calling with all pairs which included FD hitting a pair. 2 pair or straight, with me having the Qd there are more low connected FD's… it was the bet that made me think a bluff was possible as given the player tendency he seems more likely to continue check/calling bluff catchers… but that aside… if it had come to me would a two barrel bluff then check showdown been an acceptable play.
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