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January 5, 2015
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| This is a 20 person sit and go Live event. It was $100: $75 with a $25 bounty. We are down to 9 of us at this point.
Blinds: 1000-2000-300 V Image: 60 yr old Indian woman. Not your standard 60 yr old retiree nit. She has some moxxy to her. I have seen her bet big with good hands and I have seen her take stabs. I've also seen her get pushed off hands. So she is getting in there and mixing it up. But we have only been playing for less than an hour and she has not had to show down much. I guess the best way to describe her is she read like half of a tournament poker book so kinda knows something but she is not Level 2 thinking. My Image: TAG and thinking. Pre Flop: There were 6 limps pre-flop! I check in BB with K Pot=17,700 |
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J
April 10, 2015
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I would have open shoved pre flop. Now u’re uncomfortable with just 11bb behind. I woul call …
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Yeah, shove pre, pretty easy call now.
January 5, 2015
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Foucault said:
Yeah, shove pre, pretty easy call now.
Andrew my initial instinct was to shove pre, but let me toss this piece of info out there to see if it changes your opinion on this. An orbit or 2 prior we had a massive limping thing go on and I was again in the blind. I open shoved there and everyone folded. The #2 stack at table was the “limp in with big hand and call ins” type -and there were enough 10-20BB stacks at table that it was happening somewhat frequently.
With this dynamic in place, would you still prefer an open shove here? I felt like with these 2 dynamics in play my FE went down. Once the King hit, I think I just was confused how to play this hand vs 6 other people and was trying to take the pot now with a small bet. And if anyone except this Villain or the guy I mentioned in the above paragraph shoves, I snap call. But if either of them shove I'd reassess everything.
April 10, 2015
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If you fold, you will keep 11bb behind. Not much fold equity. let’s assume you don’t get any better than KT in the next few hands. Next time you get to UTG you’ll have 7bb and the whole table to speak after you. If you get to the button, you’ll have ~5.5BB assumindo The blind structure don’t change. In summary, you cannot afford to wait for greater value in my opinion
January 5, 2015
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andrebnu said:
If you fold, you will keep 11bb behind. Not much fold equity. let's assume you don't get any better than KT in the next few hands. Next time you get to UTG you'll have 7bb and the whole table to speak after you. If you get to the button, you'll have ~5.5BB assumindo The blind structure don't change. In summary, you cannot afford to wait for greater value in my opinion
Andre…yeah no i agree with you. I think I just made few decisions on this hand and some of them were reasoned out and some were less than optimal.
1. Jamming pre was my first instinct but I chose against it based on the notes I gave above. 9/10 I am jamming here pre-flop.
2. Since I did not jam it did create an odd spot for me, but one that I was fairly committed to GII in any situation really. The only questionable scenario was if the 2 big stacks jammed – and not really because of their stacks but because of their play style.
3. I bet that small amount on turn as most were playing str8 fwd and I could get this pot for cheap in a lot of cases but I dod lose FE by doing this, which I am not sure was the best move.
In hindsight I think jamming on flop is the play (again assuming I didn't jam PRE). I think I am getting called a lot from any of the limpers who hit a decent draw (which is a good thing due to the massive overlay), obvi getting called from better as well, but may get called from like a K9s or Kxs thinking I am on draw. Flop jam was a missed opportunity.
Honestly, sometimes when I look at these hands in hindsight I am dumbfounded where my head was when I was in the moment of the hand.
In this hand incidentally, I did call on the flop. But I can't find the
“spoiler” option in this forum..is there one?
February 20, 2015
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I think people just wait a few days to post the result. Fancy features like cut tags don’t seem to be included with the forum software.
The only thing I would add is “what kind of flop were you hoping to see?” Deep stacked would be worse because of the reverse implied odds.
I struggle with this, too: When your table’s culture is passive, it’s really hard for me to play aggressively. I’m hardly seeking their approval, but I also like to blend into the furniture. This is a leak I’ve been working on because it comes from my personal life. (I’m hardly shy, but I like having control over when people see me, and it’s ****ing up my play.)
January 20, 2014
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Yeah you have to call. You have top pair with like 10bb. If you're beat you're beat. nh.
November 12, 2014
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One thing I am getting somewhat tired of hearing in poker is “If you’re beat you’re beat.” If you think you’re not ahead, why call? This is a repetitive theme I hear, and I can’t quite grasp my head around it. What are we actually winning against when we call here? (This is a 100% call, mind you.) I just think the defeatist mentality put forward by a substantial amount of players makes the game of poker drag out, and is why “the rest of the world” views poker as just another form of gambling. Just my opinion!
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
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Wager,
I don't understand why you think you should have jammed the flop or why you are thinking in terms of fold equity at all. You will have the best hand a huge amount of the time when you see this flop, and you shouldn't be thinking in terms of “get this pot for cheap”. It is already your pot, you should be thinking about how you can get others to put money in with hands that are worse than yours. It's much better to bet and induce a jam from QT than to jam and induce a fold, for instance.
In answer to your question, yes, I'd still shove given the dynamic you mention. There is a ton of money in the pot, it's not that easy to get dealt a hand better than KT, and your hand has reasonable equity even against some pretty strong holdings like 99 or AQ. Considering how much money is already in the pot, there just isn't that much that can go wrong. If someone did AA or something, your going to lose your stack to them on a ton of flops (like this one) anyway, so checking doesn't really help you there anyway.
I REALLY encourage you to crunch some numbers on this, like estimate a calling range (you can ignore situations where you get more than one caller, as they will come up very rarely), estimate some limping ranges, and figure out how often you will actually be called. Then look at your equity vs that calling range.
In case you don't know, here is the equation to use:
Chance of folds * Size of Pot + (1 – Chance of Folds) * (Equity when called) * (Size of pot when called)
Compare this result to the size of your current stack. If it's bigger than jamming would be better than folding.
Of course, folding isn't actually your alternative. Checking has non-negative EV, but it's much harder to estimate, so I would say if the above is higher than 28K you should shove.
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