The first thing I would do is try and put the villain on a range of hands. I realize this is relatively tough to do since he his limp is strange but if you've played with him for awhile you might be able to do so. You def have to bet this flop but 7500 is way too big. If someone raises/jams are you folding? More than likely… so I like a bet of 4500ish here. When villain calls what hands are in his range? Does he limp button with premiums like QQ+? Possibly… but I think he's limping here more often with a “pretty good” hand like suited connectors or broadway cards or Axs… maybe even a small pocket pair. I like your check on the turn for pot control. I really don't see many K's in his range so if he bets I probably call even though a flush is possible cuz you do have the Qc.  River is obv good for your hand but quite honestly I'm not sure if I'm good here or not. I def check river and pray he checks back. If he doesn't then I reevaluate the hand and call/fold based on how big the bet is. If he does bet, I think he's repping a flush. There really aren't any 2 pair combinations in his range and I really don't think he plays a set that way. I also don't think there are many straight draw combinations that he actually misses because there aren't many 9's in his range. He could possibly have QJ and missed but who knows. I check and hope he checks back.

Do you think he gets tricky by looking back at his cards if he has clubs?  People remember when their cards are suited and some try to get cute by looking back at their cards. Not knowing where we are at I fold here and save my 20 bb’s for good re-shove spots.

brentd22 said:

Villain is a middle aged reg.  He seems creative, but not overly crazy or stupid.

 

Villain on btn – 100K+

Hero in BB – 70K

Blinds 1.5K/3K 200a

Folds around to the villain on the btn who limps (which was an odd move for him here).  SB completes and I check QcTh. 10.8K to a flop of Tc8s7c, sb checked, hero in BB bets 7500, villain calls 7500, sb folds.  22K to a turn of Kc and it goes c/c.  River 5x… hero?

 

Final Board – Tc8s7cKc5x 

Hero's Hand QcTh

I dont mind your bet on the flop if you feel villain will fold overcards (i doubt he will fold flush or str8 draws), but live in general requires smaller cbets to fold most hands unless they are drawing.

OTR I am check calling up to around 11k.  he definitely played as a speculative hand trying to hit.  and the clubs and some unlikely str8s got there so there is nothing you can beat that calls your bet, so let him bluff if he missed or check back his second pair.  If he bets I will call a smaller sized bet unless you have a pretty good reado of him overbet bluffing

Isaac, why not b/f 11k with some fold equity to win a percentage of the pots uncontested rather than surrendering that fold equity for the sake of pot control? If you think about it, b/f is pot control when the majority of his range is behind your hand, and the player in the hand isn’t capable of bluff-raising the river often enough to be dangerous.

I feel like the sum of the fold equity plus the thin value is greater than the losses sustained through being raised off your hand and when he has the flush.

I checked with intentions of evaluating bet size and most likely call a modest bet. Instead I check and V bets 40K.

I squeeze jam pre in the first hand and pick up the 10.8k. As played, smallish blocker on river and fold to a jam.

Van H3Lzing said:

hawkeyeK9 said:

I squeeze jam pre in the first hand and pick up the 10.8k. As played, smallish blocker on river and fold to a jam.

+1 to this

Really?  Not even sure if I do this online, but I def wouldn't do this live w/ QTo and 23bbs.  Live you're not on life support with 20-25bbs, cold jamming seems too high variance in this spot.

Pneumatic said:

Isaac, why not b/f 11k with some fold equity to win a percentage of the pots uncontested rather than surrendering that fold equity for the sake of pot control? If you think about it, b/f is pot control when the majority of his range is behind your hand, and the player in the hand isn't capable of bluff-raising the river often enough to be dangerous.

I feel like the sum of the fold equity plus the thin value is greater than the losses sustained through being raised off your hand and when he has the flush.

I hear you. Agression is better in most cases.  however here it seems to me the only hands you fold with an 11K bet are those that you beat (except maybe an unlikely call with an 8) and then ones that call are those you lose to. So I  don't see tremendous fold equity unless you bet big, maybe a pot sized bet..

Once I see this huge bet (almost 2x the pot) I see his range as polarized to bluffs and nut hands and I am Folding. His range still has a bunch of 2 clubs hands and str8 combos, as well as  trips or big pairs trying to trap early on that know they are ahead based on your check.  A hero call here is not worth it, I feel there are many more hands that hit in his range thant bluffs we pick pu for the price. and by checking you saved the 11K (now that we know he bet 40K I doubt he is calling or folding).

Oops, my reluctance against the jam pre were thinking we were in the $ – I had blurred his description in the original post w/ his 2nd in the thread stating they were in the money.

Assuming the first spot was not yet ITM I'd loosen my stance to be as anti-shove pre.

With the blinds and antes getting up there at this stage, knowing what your M is can be extremely helpful. With an M of 10 I was taught you gotta be careful of making these plays w a hand like QTo because it's just just not necessary yet. Esp live where you see players limp/call or limp behind and call a shove w hands like KQ and AJ.