Home
(0 votes) 
April 24, 2013
Offline
I just played my first ever WSOP event, $1000 Senior NLHE. I made day 2 with only 9bb. Generally, I'm jamming 15bb or less with a fairly wide range (position dependent), but I don't force it. If I don't get the required hand, I'll blind way down and this is where I found myself entering Day 2.
There are 490 of us left with 441 paid. With 9bb, should I fold-out to min-cash? Should I tighten up my push-fold hands? I have asked a lot of players about this situation and I'm amazed to hear the differing opinions. Some have said I should fold Aces until the money bubble busts. Others say I should play to win the tourney. Since it was my first WSOP event, it would have been nice to cash and make the WSOP money list.
For those who say I should look to double up, at what point, if ever, would you fold aces or tighten your push/fold to TT+ (or similiar tight range) to min-cash? Also, how many remaining players would it take to fold aces?
I ask because I went thru the blinds and found myself at 6.5bb with TT in the hijack. Last time I looked at the monitor, I still had 25 players to the cash (keep in mind the monitors are somewhat delayed). Altering my decision was the fact the button had not shown up yet, so with I pushed from the hijack with TT. The CO called with AJs. When I left the room (yeah, my hand didn't hold), the monitor said 17 until the money. 25 minutes later, the bubble bursts. But keep in mind the majority of that 25 mins was the very slow paced hand-for-hand mode. Also, 25 mins was 10 mins before the next level.
I think I made the correct decision because that's how I would play a less expensive or lesser known tournament. In fact, I think I should follow my usual <15bb push/fold strategy regardless of the money bubble. If anything, maybe even widen the range due to the bubble.
But sometimes I have found myself totally giving up and going for the min-cash. I know the payoff is 100's times larger if you win, but the odds between bubbling out and min-cashing are infinitely-to-1.
August 23, 2012
Offline
To put it simply, you should do whatever will have the highest EV. Anyone telling you to only play for the win is letting their ego get in the way of making $, has large bracelet bets on the line, or winning a bracelet is more important to them than $. Anyone who told you to fold AA is on the other end of the extreme and is giving away too many chips close to bubbles. The ideal strategy is somewhere in between.
With a looming bubble as a short stack, you should tighten up your call and shove ranges. Anytime you conflict with another player without a serious edge in the hand, you are losing money(EV) and giving it to the rest of the field. How much you should tighten up should have nothing to do with the exact $ amount you get for a min-cash. Many other factors should be taken into consideration such as: the payout structure, how many players you are from the $, and how your stack compares to other short stacks in the field.
For example, you are playing both a $10k buy-in with a 100 field that pays the top 9 and a $1 buy-in with a 1,000,000 field that pays the top 9 the same amount. You should play the FT bubble exactly the same in each event even though the buy-ins and field size are drasticly different. This goes the same for a $10k and $100k each with 100 player fields that pay the top 9 the same % of the prize pool.
Another factor to consider is whether the min-cash or moving up the pay ladder represents a high % of your bankroll. Then you should play a lower variance and lower EV strategy to have a higher chance of increasing your bankroll by a substancial amount. The increased bankroll will allow you to play more/higher buy-in MTTs which will offset the EV you lost in the one tournament.
One special factor to consider is whether the win will have other financial benefits other than the payout structure. I have heard that players who win the WSOP main event often recieve benefits close the amount they won from sponsorships and what not.
I got off track a bit so I'll get to your hand. I think that your TT spot is an easy shove with only 6.5bbs in the HJ. You will get called a decent amount, but you have a hand that dominates a lot of a caller's range and a dead button is good as well. I don't have all the information, but I think it would take some serious extremes to make it a fold. If 100 other players in the tournament had between 1 and 3bbs and you were likely to get called, folding would be best.
Definitely don't have a mindset that you need to double up or bust. That just leads to taking -EV all-ins. Just pick spots that you think are +EV and if you are card dead and end up short-stacked, then you ran below EV in terms of starting hands. You should feel fine if that happens because it is completely out of anyone's control.
May 1, 2013
Offline
it sounds to me like your playing in too high a buy in for your bankroll if the min cash is huge to you you wont play well because your worried about min cashing, whats the point of getting to the min cash with 3bbs? youl get a cash but have next to no chance of winning event, from experience of playing high buy ins online i havent played well in them played too tight and blinding down not way to win. i guess talking of folding good pairs near bubble is scared money and means buy in too high for you.
May 30, 2012
Offline
I totally agree with what Pack & Dan said. great points guys. First off, if you are not there to WIN why are you playing? I'm all about having fun, but I want and think I can win EVERY tourney I enter. With that said, I understand how important it is to cash at times. Especially if you have been running bad or just never cashed. I've been there for both. I'm NEVER folding AA at any point pre in a poker tourney. Unless, it's a satty and there are other shorter then me, but that's a different kind of tourney.
How important is the mini cash? You have to accumulate chips at some point…….. I've grinded a stack down to 6-8 bbs and come back to not only cash, but place high in money. There are many factors that go into your decision when asking when to jam or fold. Your tbl opponents, are guys limping, dead money in pot, position, ect……
That being said, You have to learn and be comfy with your decisions. Don't regret any, make smart decisions and you can walk away feeling good.
I was listening to the ESPN stream of the 1500 final tabl the other day and Faraz Jaka made a point about something. Said something like ….. “You make a decision to get it in with the best hand, if you lose, nothing you can do.” You got it in good and the card came out good or bad. It happens. You should walk away knowing you made the right decision and feel good about your play, that's the important thing.
TPE Pro
June 14, 2012
Offline
Min-cashing is underrated…I think people go a little bit overboard with the “play for first” mentality.
That said, there's no way you can fold TT in that spot. It's an absolute monster in that situation.
BTW, awesome post above by packallama. Dude is brilliant!
June 11, 2012
Offline
Min-cashing is underrated…
i have heard once on pokerstars.tv ike haxton being asked the question: whats the most important thing that separates good mtt players from the best?
his answer: the best make it to the money more often when having an under average stack
to the hand. no way i am folding in the situation you described
May 30, 2012
Offline
I'll add for years I was dead money and could NEVER make a mini cash in any large (200+ runner, $300+ buyin) events. Sure I was cashing and winning a few small daily events, but never cashing in a big one was killing me. Till, my first official cash in Dec '11. Now I can honestly say I WANTED a mini cash. I can't explain what that did for my psychy and thought that I could actually play with the big boys. My mindset is WIN, but as long as I do my best and make smart decisions, whatever happens when that last hand comes……… oh well. Cooler, suckout or what…..
I always say this before an event. First, have to play my best and make smart decisions, build a big castle of chips, make the money, make top 20, make final table and then WIN.
GLGL to all you boys and your decisions….
May 1, 2013
Offline
for example you dont often see neverscaredb or moorman hanging on with 8bbs near the money bubble do you? because their mentality is always about winning neverscaredb is sometimes busting an 80 90bb stack near money bubble yet he has to be one of most successful mtt players in world.
April 24, 2013
Offline
Thanks for the posts. I think packallama explained it best. I'm happy with my decision, I just couldn't see folding TT in that spot. As for my bankroll, that's not the issue. I wanted to min cash for a couple reasons (it was my first WSOP event and I would get my name on the WSOP money list, now I have to wait until next year). The more important decision was what was the correct EV play for the tournament. Is there a way to figure that out mathematically?
As for a read on the table, it was the start of Day 2 so it was a new table. We had played 1 1/2 orbits and I saw one lady fold in the BB for a 0.75bb raise (that's right, it's a call without looking), but she was out of my hand. Also, the BTN was absent at the table. I had very little info on the rest of the players except to say the CO, SB, and BB had plenty of chips to call my shove.
As for the simple mathematical calculation, 1 of 3 things can happen:
1) I pick up the blinds – this should probably happen 80% (only top 7.5% of hands are calling), and then at 9bb, my position hasn't drastically improved
2) I get called and win – I would estimate calling hands behind me would include 88+, AJs, AQ+ (remember, it's the Senior, they aren't very aggro). I double-up to 15.5bb
3) I get called and lose – To the above hands, it should avg to a race (99- I'm a big fav, but JJ+ I'm a big dog).
So, I probably should pick up the blinds, but to min cash, that's not going to help me. I was 95% confident I could have folded to the money. If I double up, I can get back into the tourney, but what is my estimated payout? Sure, I can win 600k for first place, but I'm still 450 players away with a tiny stack. The min-cash was $1900, so getting called for a race has to give me almost twice that amount (with winning the blinds getting the some value). 162nd place was paid 3400. Can we honestly believe that's my estimated finish if I double up? (And maybe computing 162nd money isn't accurate since the top 50 are getting 10k or more).
This concept if beyond my particular situation. The min-cash vs. “going for it” decision comes up in many tournaments while short-stacked near the money bubble and I often struggle. I know tightening up is valid, but I wonder to what degree.
May 30, 2012
Offline
As long as your happy with your decision. Ultimately that's all that counts. Now, on to the next one and crush it. lol That shoudl be your mind set. Whether it's a mini cash or stone bubble, they both suck for various reasons. Poker sucks at times, but we all love playing it, lol. You have to except the fact that you are going to bubble, bust very early, mini cash and maybe get very unlucky and get coolerd for the TV final table. As long as you believe you made the right decision.
GLGL on the next one Sir.
August 23, 2012
Offline
There is a way of calculating what your shoving range should be, but it would require knowing the stack sizes of all the players in the tournament at the time of the hand. Pretty much logistically impossible which is what makes ICM decisions in MTT bubbles so unclear. If you think their calling ranges are 88+, AJs, AQ+ then it is no question a shove. There are only three players left to act so we will rarely be called. I would be more hesitant to shove if we were going to be called by a wide range like: 22+, Ax, KTo+, K7s+, QTo+, Q8s+, JTo+, J9s+, T9s. If we are called by that range, our likelyhood of busting increases astronomically.
I do think we should consider the fact that it would have been your first cash in the WSOP. While I normally don't factor in something like this, getting the cash under your belt is a big emotional win. If you think something like that is worth enough to make a few -EV plays then why not?
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
Offline
packallama said:
To put it simply, you should do whatever will have the highest EV. Anyone telling you to only play for the win is letting their ego get in the way of making $, has large bracelet bets on the line, or winning a bracelet is more important to them than $. Anyone who told you to fold AA is on the other end of the extreme and is giving away too many chips close to bubbles. The ideal strategy is somewhere in between.
With a looming bubble as a short stack, you should tighten up your call and shove ranges. Anytime you conflict with another player without a serious edge in the hand, you are losing money(EV) and giving it to the rest of the field. How much you should tighten up should have nothing to do with the exact $ amount you get for a min-cash. Many other factors should be taken into consideration such as: the payout structure, how many players you are from the $, and how your stack compares to other short stacks in the field.
For example, you are playing both a $10k buy-in with a 100 field that pays the top 9 and a $1 buy-in with a 1,000,000 field that pays the top 9 the same amount. You should play the FT bubble exactly the same in each event even though the buy-ins and field size are drasticly different. This goes the same for a $10k and $100k each with 100 player fields that pay the top 9 the same % of the prize pool.
Another factor to consider is whether the min-cash or moving up the pay ladder represents a high % of your bankroll. Then you should play a lower variance and lower EV strategy to have a higher chance of increasing your bankroll by a substancial amount. The increased bankroll will allow you to play more/higher buy-in MTTs which will offset the EV you lost in the one tournament.
One special factor to consider is whether the win will have other financial benefits other than the payout structure. I have heard that players who win the WSOP main event often recieve benefits close the amount they won from sponsorships and what not.
I got off track a bit so I'll get to your hand. I think that your TT spot is an easy shove with only 6.5bbs in the HJ. You will get called a decent amount, but you have a hand that dominates a lot of a caller's range and a dead button is good as well. I don't have all the information, but I think it would take some serious extremes to make it a fold. If 100 other players in the tournament had between 1 and 3bbs and you were likely to get called, folding would be best.
Definitely don't have a mindset that you need to double up or bust. That just leads to taking -EV all-ins. Just pick spots that you think are +EV and if you are card dead and end up short-stacked, then you ran below EV in terms of starting hands. You should feel fine if that happens because it is completely out of anyone's control.
To sum, this up even better, do what maximizes your utlity. If you can afford to lose the buy in, then play for the win(or play to maximize $EV, not cEV), if you cant then you can pass on marginal spots where variance is high.
For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion
Most Users Ever Online: 2780
Currently Online:
36 Guest(s)
Currently Browsing this Page:
1 Guest(s)
Top Posters:
bennymacca: 2616
Foucault: 2067
folding_aces_pre_yo: 1133
praetor: 1033
theginger45: 924
P-aire 146: 832
Turbulence: 768
The Riceman: 731
duggs: 591
florianm1: 588
Newest Members:
Tillery999
sdmathis89
ne0x00
adrianvaida2525
Anteeater
Laggro
Forum Stats:
Groups: 4
Forums: 24
Topics: 12705
Posts: 75003
Member Stats:
Guest Posters: 1063
Members: 12008
Moderators: 2
Admins: 5
Administrators: RonFezBuddy, Killingbird, Tournament Poker Edge Staff, ttwist, Carlos
Moderators: sitelock, sitelock_1
