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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Overpair to the board, can we fold …

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Overpair to the board, can we fold the river after three barrels? $1 45 man

jamo

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August 8, 2012

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May 30, 2014 - 7:00 pm

This is the 21st hand from a $1 45man MTTSNG on PokerStars. Villain is running 17/0 from 20 hands. AF: 0.0 and AFq 0%. I feel like he must have a better pair than ours on the river as a minimum so we should fold, but is this too weak? What are your thoughts?

Poker Stars $0.91+$0.09 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t15/t30 Blinds – 8 players – View hand 2514085
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

MP1: t1540 51.33 BBs
MP2: t1535 51.17 BBs
Hero (CO): t2835 94.50 BBs
BTN: t1395 46.50 BBs
SB: t1830 61 BBs
BB: t1435 47.83 BBs
UTG: t1415 47.17 BBs
UTG+1: t1515 50.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t45) Hero is CO with J of hearts J of diamonds
3 folds, MP2 raises to t90, Hero calls t90, 2 folds, BB calls t60

Flop: (t285) T of clubs 4 of diamonds 8 (3 players)
BB checks, MP2 bets t120, Hero calls t120, BB folds

Turn: (t525) 9 of hearts (2 players)
MP2 bets t300, Hero calls t300

River: (t1125) 2 of spades (2 players)
MP2 bets t660, Hero ???

Foucault

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May 31, 2014 - 8:30 am

What does “too weak” mean? Yes, this would be a really exploitable fold. To prevent Villain from firing his air, you need to call the river wih something like 60% of your range, and after not raising at any point this is probably pretty damn close to the top of it.

Then again, a lot of players in $1 MTTs aren't going to triple barrel air with this sizing. If you're comfortable assuming that he won't bluff or value bet a worse hand here, then you can exploit that read by folding. If you aren't confident in that read, then call.

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