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Overpair facing turn donklead (WCOOP)
mini bomber
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September 16, 2012 - 11:59 am
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Just happened not too long ago in WCOOP Event 42, which just started at 11AM EST.

 

 Poker Stars $200+$15 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t30/t60 Blinds – 9 players

TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

N( )LiMitS (SB): t21824 363.73 BBs
whithartlane (BB): t13388 223.13 BBs
2000kg (UTG): t9275 154.58 BBs
KaiNDeaD (UTG+1): t10000 166.67 BBs
MauriceSch (UTG+2): t9925 165.42 BBs
Nick nase (MP1): t9925 165.42 BBs
1thirteenth3 (MP2): t6576 109.60 BBs
Hero (CO): t10060 167.67 BBs
ReverendAA (BTN): t9340 155.67 BBs

Pre Flop: (t90) Hero is CO with Q of hearts Q of diamonds
5 folds, Hero raises to t180, 2 folds, whithartlane calls t120

 

My thoughts: I like to 3x pre-ante and I believe the bb is flatting pretty wide. He was running 20/17-ish but only about 10 hands deep.

Flop: (t390) 5 of spades 8 of clubs 2 of clubs (2 players)
whithartlane checks, Hero bets t140, whithartlane calls t140

 

My thoughts: Pretty dry board (minus the fd obv) and I make a standard cbet. I think he's check/calling with a lot of 22-66 type of hands, A2, A5, A8 and maybe speculating with any Ace-high.

Turn: (t670) J of clubs (2 players)
whithartlane bets t348, Hero ????

 

My thoughts: Donkbets confuse me a lot. Would he really donklead a flush? a set? AJ? I don't think so. Wouldn't he go for the check-raise every time? I flat to speculate but I'm gutted.

 

Hero calls t348.

River: (t1366) 4 of hearts (2 players)
whithartlane bets t780, Hero ?????

 

My thoughts: I don't really know what I'm beating other than a bluff…and I think it's too early to be bluffing wet boards. I think this is a set or a flush every time, or maybe even J8 sometimes (could also be JJ now that I think about it.) Is my thought process wrong? What do you do in this spot vs a random? Thanks!

Turbulence
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September 16, 2012 - 12:33 pm
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My first reaction is that I call here a lot of the time. I think he donk leads turn with any pair + FD i.e JK Kc, A8 Ac Ac3 ect and is trying to control the action and get money in before the rvr, because your not paying him on a 4 flush board without a club. I agree that he also has sets a certain amount of the time, which given the FD on board he would probably c/r the flop with but not always.

 

Leading a made flush is a good line, as many people dont expect it, and especially if you have a weak made flush. So i dont discount this but it is a rare line to take HU rather than multiway.

 

I'm a little torn about his rvr bet sizing, I think it would be closer to 900+ if he was going for max value with a made flush or set. Seems more like a blocker / value which is why I lean towards calling.

aka Prophead340 aka Prophead2000 aka Turbulence_1

PocketFives Profile: .....urbulence/

ShortStackJack
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September 16, 2012 - 1:19 pm
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The power of position. He really priced you in. It's a good bet if he has a set or flush, and a bad bed if he has air. With your equity and pot equity, I think this is an easy call, even if it's not a optimistic one. 

daveyt86
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September 17, 2012 - 4:31 am
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I agree with turbulence the villain will most likely have a hand with a J and a club, J10, QJ, KJ, AJ. He floats the flop to your small c-bet with 2 overs expecting you to always c-bet and then hits his J with a club draw and thinks he is ahead. The river bet looks like he thinks he is ahead and looking for some value maybe even A8 with A of clubs. Your hand is under-rep'd here and he never puts you on QQ here

I take it you folded??

mini bomber
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October 1, 2012 - 8:32 am
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Yes, I folded. I'm starting to notice more sets taking this line as of late.

jjpregler
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October 1, 2012 - 9:33 am
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Preflop:  With effective stacks this deep, I still like a 3x open.  

Flop:  I think the c-bet is a little small.  Again, with deeper stacks, I like 1/2 pot at least.  

Turn:  I like the call.  Donk bets simetimes tilt me and I react aggresively to them, especially with an overpair (one of my leaks), and by the itme we get to showdown, I find out I was actually crushed.  With QQ here, I think you have 2 choices: pot control or fold and I'm not convinced about folding just yet. 

On another note, this play is in Negreanu's book Power Hold'em.  He calls it the Johnny Chan play, where instead of check raising the flop, you call the flop and lead the turn.  The example he gives is a mediocre hand that may or may not be ahead on the flop, such as middle pair or a pocket pair between the top and middle pair, with a frequent c-bettor, and a safe card hits the turn.  This example is different as the Jc is definitely not a meaningless card.  However, you know many players may read and pick up a play from a book, without understanding all of the details.  

River:  Not sure, if you are ahead here and there's really nothing wrong with folding instead of guessing.  I learned recently that whenever you are thinking: “I might be good” it is usually a good time to fold.  

But if you are running a HUD and he has an high AF post flop, I may just call down.  If his AF is medium or low, this should probably be a fold.  Against a random without reads, I think folding is better, because there are more people who fit the profile where I definitely fold/lean to a fold than there are that fit the profile of calling down.  

duggs
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October 1, 2012 - 8:34 pm
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calling because he will donk hands tht have good equity but cant sustain a raise or lose equity on brick rivers, ie KcJ QcJ Jx  AcJ 109 J10c J10o and c/r flop with sets and i dont think he is calling pre with JJ a shitload of the time. flushes probably c/c and lead river or c/r turn way more often than they lead turn readless

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