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Overpair Facing Flop Shove 10$ MTT
mike666
Lighting Money On Fire
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July 16, 2014 - 2:28 pm
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I have been pretty active at the table and Hijack has stats 24/12 after 67 hands. He also squeezed with K10s before and played it straightforward. Not much reads on his postflop play though.

SB 1: (66130)
BB 2: (19859)
UTG: (22887)
Utg +1: Hero (49979)
MP1: (39862)
MP2: (2811)
Hijack: (25766)
CO: (19475)
Button: (33231)

Blinds 150-300, Ante 25

Dealt to Hero [Qs Qd]

Preflop

Utg folds
Hero raises 300 to 600
2 fold
Hijack calls 600
2 fold
SB calls 450
BB calls 300

FLOP [9s Jd 2d]

SB checks
BB checks
Hero bets 1888
Hijack raises 23253 to 25141 and is all-in
SB folds
BB folds

Hero?

derSchwartz
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July 16, 2014 - 4:57 pm
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Even though this is very deep, it looks like a call to me .. the flop is drawy and the villain is doing something very semi-bluffy.  Villain may also be over playing his top pair to give you bad odds if he thinks you are betting on a draw – if this is the case you are crushing him.  AA and KK is rather unlikely because he flatted preflop, and if he did or has a set I think it's good hand to him.

I could very well be wrong, so await more feedback.

Foucault

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July 16, 2014 - 9:53 pm
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I'd call, think people are more likely to do with this with top pairs and big draws than with sets. I think the sort of people who would this with AA would also do it with AJ, and are more likely to have AJ both combinatorically and given the preflop action.

Rok
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July 17, 2014 - 5:41 am
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Easy call for me. Here villain has big draw or top pair. I think you are never behid here, like already written he is raising pre with bigger pair.

coldcall27
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July 17, 2014 - 6:09 am
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Unless you have any significant postflop stats tellin' you otherwise, I'd call here – also the buyin level taken into consideration. Should you loose the hand, you still have plenty of room to play.

ltcolumbo
the D
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July 17, 2014 - 11:50 am
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I am expecting to see JdTd or Jd9d or Td9d here….  maybe TxTd…  I really dont know what I would do, but I was surprised to find to consensus to be so one-sided.  Everyone else maybe expects to see A9 or a diamond draw and not a multiway draw?

JD
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July 17, 2014 - 8:40 pm
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I'll be a rebel.  In the small stakes tournaments I play (Bovada, but I don't imagine they play too diferently elsewhere) in I'm folding here without a second thought.  If it was heads up, or if it was a rainbow flop, I would consider calling.  But because its 4-way with many possible draws that makes it more likely that they would play sets like this.  Put yourself in the fishes bead for a moment.  There's a bunch of people in the pot, 1 or more of them probably have a piece of it or a good draw, you probably won't be able to bet them off of it with a reasonable raise, and you'll never be able to get away from your 2p+, so you should just shove right?

 

Sometimes with will be something like AdKd, QdTd, 9dXd, or some random GS+FD.  If fact there are enough draws that I'm sure it makes it a +EV call, but probably not as much as you might think.  It's not worth risking close to 70BB IMHO.

 

If I was a gambling man my money would go on J9 or AdKs as his most likely holding.

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