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Open MP with 42BB and A2s, get called by both blinds, flop A45. Good time to pot control?
derSchwartz
Sunday Major
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December 5, 2014 - 6:36 pm
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Hand Review 2 from the 5$R/A I played earlier.
I have chipped up some more and the addon is done with.

Merge Network $750 Gtd [+R, Turbo] (80242978-1) No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t300.00/t600.00 Blinds + t60.00 – 8 players – View hand 2621165
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Zogga666 (): BB = 18.2, t10901
suntzu3142 (BB): BB = 22.7, t13600
Redcard219 (UTG): BB = 11.7, t7000
Hero (MP): BB = 42.6, t25545
ponchopentera (HJ): BB = 12.2, t7320
ALLinRAFO (CO): BB = 18.4, t11040
0ngng070 (BTN): BB = 33.3, t20000
KKS1969 (SB): BB = 13.4, t8060

Pre Flop: (t1380) Hero is with 2 of hearts A of hearts
2 folds, Hero raises to t1200.00, 3 folds, KKS1969 calls t900, Zogga666 calls t600

KKS1969 is the recurring villain in this game, playing 54/12, 41% limp, 0% 3bet, 20% fold to Cbet, 80% call Cbet.  He could have 22+ although he may actually raise with premiums, AX+, KXs, K7o+, Q9s+, QTo+, suited connectors, JTo and T9o.

Zogga666 is playing 31/17, limping 13%, 3betting 2%, folding to Cbet 86%, and calling Cbet 0% after 190 hands.  He is getting very good odds to throw in another big blind and he chose not to squeeze, so I weigh him more towards speculative hands.

Flop: (t4080) 5 of hearts A of diamonds 4 of clubs (3 players)
KKS1969 checks, Zogga666 checks

Hero?

KKS1969's check doesn't mean much, as he is passive enough to check most situations.  I have no donk bet stat on him, unfortunately.  Maybe a stat to add to my HUD?

This flop seems quite difficult to hit.  If they did hit an ace it's better than mine.  For this reason it seems best to check behind, and let underdogs bluff or pick up a worse pair later.  I can get value probably only from pocket pairs, especially if KKS1969 has one.  I chose to do the following:

Hero bets t2050.00, KKS1969 calls t2050, Zogga666 folds

Turn: (t8180) 9 of hearts (2 players)

KKS1969 checks,

Well I think he very well might have an ace.  He's sticky and could have worse pocket pairs, but an ace seems like the slight most likely reason for him to do this.  I figure I'm rarely getting any more value from worse by betting.

Hero checks

River: (t8180) J of diamonds (2 players)

KKS1969 bets t4750 all in,

Well now he certainly can be bluffing with air or with pairs, and calling this bluff would be part of the possible value I could get from this hand. He could have hit the jack, but he might hope to keep checking that down.  He probably has the ace a good amount of the time.  The pot is 12,930 and I must call 4750. 

Hero?

Thank you for reading.

folding_aces_pre_yo
High Stakes Mario Kart Propping
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December 5, 2014 - 8:34 pm
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V is risking 4750 to win 8180, so to make him indifferent to bluffing you need to call 64% of the time.

basically Your goal is to make him indifferent between bluffing or not bluffing, he needs you to fold 4750/ (4750+8180) 36% of the time to break even on his bluff. So you want to call 64%, if you call more then that, you lose to much to his value hands. If you fold more then that, you lose to much to his bluffs.

as for post flop , i think checking back flop is fine on such a dry board so yeah back loading our value would be fine here imo. We’re only likely to get 1 or 2 streets at tops.

looking at v stats though it seems as they hardly ever fold to c-bets, so maybe front loading our value and then checking back turn to induce a bluff on the river is a good idea.

i’d call river btw 🙂

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