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on the river with Q high, shall we make a modest bluff?
folding_aces_pre_yo
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January 13, 2015 - 11:39 pm
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#Game No : 658412011

***** 888poker Hand History for Game 658412011 *****

$200/$400 Blinds No Limit Holdem – ***

Tournament #65300027 $20 + $2 – Table #4 9 Max (Real Money)

Seat 10 is the button

Total number of players : 9

Seat 1: BvlgariBlack ( $9,831 )

Seat 2: 123rigg ( $10,891 )

Seat 3: RoomCays ( $18,614 )

Seat 4: callacony ( $5,776 )

Seat 5: Edward.83 ( $8,317 )

Seat 6: Cummings08 ( $40,449 )

Seat 7: Gelenzhik ( $24,588 )

Seat 9: london_ace ( $11,500 )

Seat 10: ok.kolya ( $10,662 )

Cummings08 posts ante [$40]

callacony posts ante [$40]

ok.kolya posts ante [$40]

london_ace posts ante [$40]

RoomCays posts ante [$40]

123rigg posts ante [$40]

BvlgariBlack posts ante [$40]

Gelenzhik posts ante [$40]

Edward.83 posts ante [$40]

BvlgariBlack posts small blind [$200]

123rigg posts big blind [$400]

** Dealing down cards **

Dealt to london_ace [ Qheart, 3heart]

RoomCays folds

callacony folds

Edward.83 folds

Cummings08 folds

Gelenzhik folds

london_ace raises [$800]

ok.kolya folds

BvlgariBlack calls [$600]

123rigg calls [$400]

** Dealing flop ** [ Adiamond, 6club, Aheart]  total pot $2760

BvlgariBlack checks

123rigg checks

london_ace bets [$1,000]

BvlgariBlack calls [$1,000]

123rigg folds

** Dealing turn ** [ Tdiamond ]   total pot – $4760

BvlgariBlack checks

london_ace checks

** Dealing river ** [ Aspade ] total pot –  $4760

BvlgariBlack checks

london_ace bets [$1,586]

BvlgariBlack calls [$1,586]

 

Hey Hey

 

No reads.

 

just wondering if anyone wants to go for a modest bluff on the river? we're very unlikely to have any show down value here with Q high. I think betting small is pretty good , it's unlikely we've got to the river with air plus a small bet only has to suceed 25% of the time for it to be profitable. I think on this river i'd consider this a number 2 spot , basically v is unlikely to fold , but that don't mean we can't bluff. 

 

cheers.

Kalculater
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January 13, 2015 - 11:54 pm
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Why do you think its unlikely we have gotten to this river with air?

 

Consider this:

– Your preflop opening range.

– Your cbetting range for this board.

– What hands do you take a cbet, check line on this board?

 

I think majority of your range is air and therefore makes a bet bad. Your value sizing would be bigger because our range has so much air and villain is going to call down this runout alot. He is probably calling all PPs, his floated Tx (if any in his range) and maybe even some K-high hands. When he checks river he is calling this bet really often.

Foucault

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January 14, 2015 - 9:59 am
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Agree with Kalc. Also what was your bluff target?

Douggyfr3sh
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January 14, 2015 - 12:37 pm
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Haven’t read other responses yet but this seems like a bad spot to fire a bluff. I think you’re getting called here by any piece (6x,Tx, 77-99, JJ if that’s in PF flatting range, maybe even 44-55?) Also the story you’re telling doesn’t really make sense and you can’t rep much. It basically looks like you cbet flop with a really wide range, check turn after you get called, and then when the A rivers you can’t really have much Ax and really what Tx can you have? Seems pretty transparent.

IMO a better line if you’re going to cbet here is to barrel this turn and then give up when called (I don’t think 3 barrels is good here esp. when the 3rd A rivers).

folding_aces_pre_yo
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January 14, 2015 - 1:33 pm
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My bluff target were hands like 77/88/99. 

 

This relates to the gut check in the bluffing series , i don't think im being realstic here , there's no way v is folding full houses, and it's pretty diffcult to represent quads. 

 

The thing is though i was not trying to represent quads anyhow.

 

you said in your video that a small bet is okay andrew even if that means we're going to get called often. our bluff only needs to suceed 25% of the time.

Kalculater
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January 14, 2015 - 5:42 pm
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77/88/99 are not going to fold because you are representing hardly anything here. If you have an Ax you are going to 3barrel, Tx you will probably bet the turn.

 

You said you are not triyng to represent quads. What are you trying to represent?

 

In general I agree with Andrews comment about a small bet being okay because it has to work a minimal percentage of the time. There are exceptions to the rule and a board like this would probably be one. 

Foucault

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January 15, 2015 - 8:44 am
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folding_aces_pre_yo said:

My bluff target were hands like 77/88/99. 

 

This relates to the gut check in the bluffing series , i don't think im being realstic here , there's no way v is folding full houses, and it's pretty diffcult to represent quads. 

 

The thing is though i was not trying to represent quads anyhow.

 

you said in your video that a small bet is okay andrew even if that means we're going to get called often. our bluff only needs to suceed 25% of the time.

Yes but it does have to succeed 25% of the time (succeed meaning make BETTER hands fold). I think you've realized getting pocket pairs to fold is unrealistic, so again, what is the 25% of hands you are trying to get him to fold?

folding_aces_pre_yo
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January 15, 2015 - 6:30 pm
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the 25% of hands could consist of K high and Q high hands which i could try get him to fold? the problem is though i dont see any worse hands calling…

Kalculater
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January 15, 2015 - 7:40 pm
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When you bluff you are not thinking about getting worse hands calling. If you wanted worse hands to call you would be betting for value.

 

What range do you give him when he calls the cbet?

folding_aces_pre_yo
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January 16, 2015 - 11:04 am
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lol I mean when hero bluffs worse hands are not folding.

 

when he calls the flop bet , his range seems like 88/99/TT , i don't think there's many Ax in his range , most big aces would of probably been 3-bet pre , espically given that i opened from LP. I also think hands like QQ/KK/AA would had been 3-bet pre.

 

I don't think his range is that weak once he peels the flop OOP, after all we are in a multi way pot.

Kalculater
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January 16, 2015 - 10:01 pm
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Basically what you have said is the same thing, just from another direction. When we bluff we dont want worse hands to fold, we want better hands to fold. If worse hands are going to call (i.e. not fold) we would bet for value.

 

So you now agree his range is not that weak, so why would we want to bluff? I think we can conclude that his range is not so weak and he's probably not folding 25% of his range, making this bluff not profitable.

 

If you really want to do the combinatoric mathematics on it give him a very specific cbet call range then think about how much of that range is going to fold to a small river bet. I can almost guarantee it wont be 25% of his range.

wager9
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January 17, 2015 - 2:41 am
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The only thing I can see him folding here is like KQs if he floated the flop once to pick up a draw. These type hands I very seriously doubt make up more than 25% of his range – the rest of which he is calling with as I think it contains a pair.

folding_aces_pre_yo
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January 17, 2015 - 8:08 am
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just bad play by me , guess i’m trying to win a pot with a hand that has hardly no showdown value , i probably wasn’t thinking ingame in regards to what i was trying to make him fold.

cheers all.

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