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Ok to fold SB here? (KT) Or am I missing value?
derSchwartz
Sunday Major
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December 2, 2013 - 2:35 pm
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I late registered in this $5 knockout MTT, and this was the fifth hand I was dealt.  I have played some with PrankNGrind before .. after 66 hands he plays 44/20/23.1, limping 23, stealing 27, Cbetting 50. 

I can't tell if I should be shoving to pick up blinds here, limping to hit a big flop, or doing what I did, which is folding because I still have enough BBs to wait for a better spot.

Merge Network $250 Gtd – [Knockout] No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t100.00/t200.00 Blinds + t20.00 – 7 players – View hand 2370972
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

BootlegggggggMCG (UTG): BB = 19.0, t3801
GiseppeColoroRosetti (UTG+1): BB = 62.4, t12473
prankNgrind (MP): BB = 36.4, t7285
hak1m7 (CO): BB = 60.9, t12177
Are2sGoog (BTN): BB = 16.7, t3349
Hero (SB): BB = 16.2, t3245
ledoormat530 (BB): BB = 15.0, t3000

Pre Flop: (t440) Hero is SB with T of spades K of hearts
2 folds, prankNgrind calls t200, 2 folds, Hero folds, ledoormat530 checks

I decided that, given the minimal information I had about the limper's play this game, and given my new appearance at the table, I wouldn't be getting the number of folds I would want if I were to shove.  I decided that I had enough BBs to wait for a better, more informed spot, but that I didn't have enough BBs to just complete as I wouldn't easily get paid off enough if I  saw a cheap flop and hit a monster.

Is this too nitty, or is it good caution?

Thanks in advance! 

WizardZur
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December 2, 2013 - 3:05 pm
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I think calling is horrible.  This is precisely the kind of hand I don't like completing with bc there's no good flop that you can hit.  Any single pair hand you hit, you have to fear domination, so you are basically calling just to hit the nut straight, which there is not nearly enough odds to do so.  The hand isn't even suited.  I know that only adds a miniscule amount of equity, but since you are in the SB it being suited may inspire me to call and try to hit a monster.  Unsuited-yuck!

 

However, if your opponent's stats were truly 44/20/23.1 he is basically a call station.  Assuming he is more likely to limp with the lower half of his range and raise with the upper half (which is a reasonable assumption) you may actually be ahead of his range.  Jamming here (assuming all folds) would add 640 to your stack, or basically add 20% to your stack.  You just don't have the stack to wait for better and your opponent is such a loosy-goosy that there is a good chance that he folds bc he was calling with nothing and if he doesn't you might miraculously actually be ahead bc with those stats 10-9s and its ilk are def in his range.  You can't keep folding forever with your stack and calling is bad.  A loose player limping is the perfect spot for you to jam.  You may even get better to fold if your opponent isn't in the calling mood bc remember that if you are new to the table he doesn't know what you're capable of either.  The reason why I jam here and call with a hand like AJ is that there are actually good flops you can hit with AJ but literally no good flop with KT so you're main equity here is fold equity.  Ninja jamming is mandatory here imo.     

WackyJuan
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December 27, 2013 - 4:19 pm
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You've got 4 choices here:

1. Fold – too nitty.  His stats are such that he's probably very weak and you've more equity here than he does.

2. Call – too nitty as well, and dangerous as your hand is difficult to play OOP post-flop unless you hit it perfectly (straight or 2p).

3. Raise – probably not enough FE to get him to fold.  A standard raise might be to 3.3bb's, which is <1/10th of his stack.  You'll be playing OOP with a weak hand.  No good, setting yourself up for disaster.

4. Shove – greatest amount of FE, and his fold will net you 3.2bb's or almost 20% to your stack.  He'd be hard pressed to find a call with anything less than the top 15-20% of his range.

I'm shoving all day here vs this loose-passive opponent.

FkCoolers
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December 28, 2013 - 8:44 pm
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On a 16 BB stack I think just shove and scoop the pot.

I also disagree with another poster saying we should fear card domination if we complete from SB. If I choose to complete, villain having KJ+ and AT aren't really going through my head. 

In fact I'd be thinking the opposite – that his limping range could have several hands that I dominate. 

P-aire 146
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December 28, 2013 - 10:18 pm
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Agree with FkCoolers……  I'm shoving this all day.  calling w/ this oop is bad.  You either shove or don't bother.  Anything else is spewy.

Foucault

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December 29, 2013 - 2:58 pm
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I'd shove, but calling is much much much better than folding. You are getting 5:1, and even if we give the limper the top 20% of hands (which is a ridiculous range because hes's probably raising most if not all of the hands that dominate you) you have 32% equity against him and the BB's random hand, which is twice what you'd need to justify calling. Even allowing for some disadvantage to being out of position, calling is clearly profitable. 

Once you see a flop you'll have an SPR of 5, so it shoudln't be so hard to play OOP, and as Coolers said, domination is really not a concern here. Most of those hands are raising, so you're more likely to dominatea K8s or JTo or something than vice versa. I daresay that even if you check-folded every flop where you didn't make top pair or a good draw, and shoved every flop that you did, calling would be +EV, and of course there are much better ways of playing postflop than that.

derSchwartz
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December 30, 2013 - 1:06 pm
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Thank you for the advice everyone.  I can see that I have a tendency to over estimate the strength of opponents' ranges at different times, especially when they simply open limp or open raise from mid/late position.

I'll try not to hestitate to play hands like these in the future.

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