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odds question with cash games
authorfre
Charleston, SC
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December 3, 2014 - 9:52 pm
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Poor title because it seems relevant to both cash and tournaments. I think I understand basic pot odds issues, but one area has me stumped and it is the practical application when everyone comes along.

Online its not unusual in low stakes tournament or cash games to have several limpers or even several cold calls, and in live events (like WSOP circuits)  it seems like everyone over 45 plays most every pot, often ending up with 4-6 callers as often or not. I understand that limping and excessive cold calling are bad poker. But how can you justify (mathematically) not calling when you are getting 5 or 7 or 9 to one? Why aren't we all in every pot like that at least when deep? Even the typical Isolation bet usually is small enough to continue playing in the event someone does ISO. I know we will be behind but will we be behind so much that winning wont mathematically compel us? I am sure I am missing something so know I am being a donk here, but can anyone explain this?

chaos
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December 4, 2014 - 5:39 am
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Pot odds apply to multiway pots as faithfully as with heads up pots, however, when you calculate your odds, you have to do so against the combined range of all the opponents and only then can you justify the call.

Let's say you're the button on a 9 ring game and hold K2s. Before you there're 3 limpers and you expect the small blind and big blind to just complete and check if you limp too.

The total pot will be 6BB and you have to put 1BB to play so your pot odds are 1 in 6, that is, about 17%.

Now, to actually determine if you should play the hand you need to calculate the odds of you winning the pot with your hand. To do it, you need to check your K2s agains the combined range of the 6 players. They're limping so let's assume they limp with 80% of their range (note if you have a hud you can narrow that range based on their limping range, here I'm simplifying). Your equity with your hand is roughly 17% so, theoretically, just taking into account pot odds, limping is EV0.

Of course that doesn't take into account reverse implied odds on a hand like K2s. K2s is a hand that will likely win a small pot but potentially lose a big one (if you hit you K and someone else has another king).

Now, if you hold J4o for example, your odds will be 11% and thus limping with that hand is EV-

Sen
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December 4, 2014 - 9:08 am
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Hey chaos. I think your calculations are correct, but can't be applied as straight-forward as you did to solve the problem.

First of all you can't assume for all players to have the same range. Let's assume that 50% of the players at the table are decent thinking players (meaning their range won't be all over the place at any time) and we are playing 100BB+ deep. Now the first player limping can have a fairly wide range, but it shouldn't be J3o+. I'd give him any 1-3 gap-combos, lot's of suited stuff and the obvious broadsways, small pairs and weak aces. You can also probably eleminate most QQ, JJ, AK hands. Now, every following player can have a wider range as their odds improve and they have position!

Nevertheless applying direct equity calculation with pokerstove doesn't work as deepstack the implied odds are very important. When I have position on 2 or more limpers I am much more inclined to play 64s etc. or a baby-pair like 22,33,44 or a suited (small) Ace as I get fantastic implied odds in a deep-stacked situation. Hands like A9o, K8o etc. on the other hand will have a lot of reverse implied odds as you can only be sure to have a strong hand when hitting two pair and may often be in trouble when hitting top-pair.

So to give an answer to the initial question: When should I join a multy-way pot preflop?

I'd always ask myself some of the following things:

– do I have position?

– are effective stacks deep enough to play a speculative hand?

– are the players left to act active at the table and likely to squeeze me out of the pot?

– does my hand have good implied odds or does it likely have reverse-implied odds?

– do I feel comfortable postflop vs the players involved?

 

A mathematical solution with direct %s representing your equity are almost impossible to come up with (I think) because of the complexity of all the different factors playing into the equation.

chaos
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December 4, 2014 - 9:50 am
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I agree with all you said. I was talking strictly about pot odds because that is what the question was about.

Obviously there’re too many other variables like implied odds and reverse implied odds as well as, specially, non mathematic stuff, like the kind of players that are joining the pot with you which I think are more important than the odds themselves, the fact of whether someone still to act may raise or not, the position as you said… With so many variables I was only answering the exact question of strict poker odds given a fixed range for the villains and genericly stating the rule that Pot Odds directly relate to the Odds of you winning the hand in an all in situation, without taking into acount later streets.

In general tough, I won’t event consider pot odds in that situation, I’d weight much more factors like how likely it is that I’m going to stack one of my villains if I hit my monster, how likely am I to get in trouble if my hand connects with the flop in someway or how much am I going to be able to outplay other players and that sort of considerations rather than my pot odds for limping into a pot.

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