February 20, 2013
I'm a payoff monkey but I call. He's got a lot of 3s here and 66, but he also has a lot of smaller flushes. I discount Qs with that turn sizing, and this is river is a good card to inspire him to continue bluffing on the rare occasions he is. Villain with these stats at this buyin sometimes jams baby flushes on this river just out of confusion/frustration/flush blindness. That timing tell (hollywood/evaluating his underfull) doesn't bode well for us though and is an argument for folding. Snap jam gets snap called by me.
Personally, I still use chunky half pot+ sizing on this flop, though I recognize most winners are using your sizing these days here. I like folding out equity and building a bigger pot for when we hit. I'm not trying to induce ck/raises out of A3, 6x, 77-TT, etc. Dominated flush draws go nowhere regardless of our sizing. Bigger sizing can turn weak Qs into ck/calls rather than ck/raises sometimes. We have the option to ck back certain turns for free card/pot control without turning our hand face up too, though I'm usually barrelling away. Bigger c-bet sizing=more control. (unsure of this paragraph's logic, but my current thinking)
I think your turn flat is only optimal against players who we have the “aggro capable” note on. Turn ck/min rs./hero fold a value hand to jam seems rare in the general player pool, on this stack size. 32/10 players aren't getting sick with turn bluffs often.
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