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Nut flush when river double pairs, getting 3.5:1
NutflushPete
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April 17, 2014 - 4:09 pm
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The villain was playing 32/10 over 68 hands and seemed pretty passive both pre and post, with an 83% limp call, 7% bet flop and 0/11 flop raises. When he raises the turn small it feels like a queen or a 3 trying to ensure all the chips go in by the river (he only has 2/5ths pot left by the river). I didn't shove because the majority of rivers are benign and I think there's a slightly higher chance of getting called later, but I realise that if his hand is uncallable on the river he's not folding to a turn jam.

 

The second queen is probably the worst card in the deck, other than a third 3. Especially against a weak player I can think of many non Q/3/66 combos that he would play like that. The only other bit of information available was a timing tell, with him pausing about 8-10 seconds before shoving the river.

 

What do you do here? And would you call with A3 or 66?

 

Poker Stars €4.50+€0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t100/t200 Blinds + t25 – 6 players – View hand 2475746
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

alfp2940 (BTN): BB = 40.1, t8015
hoochie44270 (SB): BB = 48.9, t9775
Adzevh815 (BB): BB = 113.3, t22670
Hero (UTG): BB = 85.9, t17184
allan13_71x (MP): BB = 93.3, t18670
wma74 (CO): BB = 37.8, t7565

Pre Flop: (t450) Hero is UTG with 4 of spades A of spades
Hero raises to t500, 1 fold, wma74 calls t500, 2 folds, Adzevh815 calls t300

Flop: (t1750) 6 of spades Q of spades 3 of clubs (3 players)
Adzevh815 checks, Hero bets t750, wma74 calls t750, Adzevh815 folds

Turn: (t3250) 3 of spades (2 players)
Hero bets t1400, wma74 raises to t2800, Hero calls t1400

River: (t8850) Q of diamonds (2 players)
Hero checks, wma74 bets t3490 all in, Hero ???

andinista
Lighting Money On Fire
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April 24, 2014 - 1:46 pm
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I'm a payoff monkey but I call. He's got a lot of 3s here and 66, but he also has a lot of smaller flushes. I discount Qs with that turn sizing, and this is river is a good card to inspire him to continue bluffing on the rare occasions he is. Villain with these stats at this buyin sometimes jams baby flushes on this river just out of confusion/frustration/flush blindness. That timing tell (hollywood/evaluating his underfull) doesn't bode well for us though and is an argument for folding. Snap jam gets snap called by me.

Personally, I still use chunky half pot+ sizing on this flop, though I recognize most winners are using your sizing these days here. I like folding out equity and building a bigger pot for when we hit. I'm not trying to induce ck/raises out of A3, 6x, 77-TT, etc. Dominated flush draws go nowhere regardless of our sizing. Bigger sizing can turn weak Qs into ck/calls rather than ck/raises sometimes. We have the option to ck back certain turns for free card/pot control without turning our hand face up too, though I'm usually barrelling away. Bigger c-bet sizing=more control. (unsure of this paragraph's logic, but my current thinking)

I think your turn flat is only optimal against players who we have the “aggro capable” note on. Turn ck/min rs./hero fold a value hand to jam seems rare in the general player pool, on this stack size. 32/10 players aren't getting sick with turn bluffs often.

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