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nut bluff catcher
GunnJD
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September 30, 2015 - 8:33 pm
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$20 Bovada mtt. 

Realize I should probably have checked the turn. 

Inclination was to fold the river, but on second thought find villain’s line pretty odd. 

Actually think folding the river may be a pretty big mistake? If I have a bluff catching range, this is the best candidate I could really have with high showdown value and the blocker.

Also wonder if villain could ever value bet worse and I’m being silly.

I’m working my way through many theory videos on here in an attempt to shore up the fundamentals, and realize those will help with spots like these.

PokerStars – $20+$2|10/20 NL – Holdem – 8 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

CO: 4,930 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
BTN: 4,907 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
SB: 4,910 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 40.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
BB: 4,930 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
Hero (UTG): 4,970
UTG+1: 5,280 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
MP: 4,910 (VPIP: 20.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)
MP+1: 4,950 (VPIP: 40.00, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 5)

SB posts SB 10, BB posts BB 20

Pre Flop: (pot: 30) Hero has Aheart Aclub

Hero raises to 60, fold, fold, fold, fold, BTN calls 60, fold, fold

Flop: (150, 2 players) Tclub 3club 5club
Hero bets 111, BTN calls 111

Turn: (372, 2 players) Kheart
Hero bets 222, BTN raises to 559, Hero calls 337

River: (1,490, 2 players) 7heart
Hero checks, BTN bets 805,

navinbits
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September 30, 2015 - 9:14 pm
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Villain’s raise on the turn makes me think he doesn’t have a 2 pair or a set. If he has a set, we might have heard from him on the flop. If he has KK, he 3-bets preflop. KT is a possibility, but he might not raise the turn with that if he didn’t raise the flop. If he flopped a flush and raised the turn for value, I am sure you are 100% correct to call with nut draw. Slightly more than 1/2 pot bet on the river… I am calling here as we are very deep and we beat all his non-flushy hands. Now waiting for getting shot at by Andrew wink

GunnJD
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October 1, 2015 - 1:45 am
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I punched this into Snowie as a cash game and it wants to check/call flop. As played its folding 88% of the time and jamming 12% of the time laugh.

Bluff jamming the river…there’s the right line!!

navinbits said
Now waiting for getting shot at by Andrew wink

It hurts so good.

tsaunders
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October 1, 2015 - 3:28 am
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I don’t think my post will be a lot of help because I would really be guessing. In summary he can value bet AK here and flushes. He never has sets. He very rarely has 2 pair except exactly KT. He can be getting aggro with a big club as well hoping to take control of pot.

As played though I think you can only narrow it down like this then you have to go with your gut…I think bet sizes like 111 and 222 can induce bluffs sometimes, so you have to take that into account as well. His river sizing does not look like a flush to me though, it almost looks like AK or air, I’d expect a flush to bet between 900-1000. So I am so tempted to call here. I have to admit I am also not very certain either way so would just go with my gut at the time, hopefully some timing tells could tell me what to do.

Flop:

He could easily flat the flop with a flush.

He can flat with 2 overs and a club draw

Rarely flats flop with a set. Has no 2 pair combos in preflop range. 

Turn:

Can easily raise a flush here.

Could raise AK/KQ with a club.

Could raise with a club draw hoping to bet you off Ace high or a pocket pair.

River:

Bets flushes

Bets missed flush draws.

May value bet AK although probably not KQ.

Foucault

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October 1, 2015 - 8:51 am
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This is a nasty spot on the river mostly because you should have checked an earlier street. I agree with Snowie about doing it on the flop.

As played, I don’t think you’re as high up in your range as you think. Flushes are the most obvious hands to put into your calling range, and the risk of Villain showing up with value bets from non-flushes makes AA somewhat less appealing. I don’t agree that AK/KQ would play this way, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see sets or two-pair. The longer Villain tanked on river, the less inclined I’d be to call, as in this case I’d expect that to be him working out whether to value bet a non-flush.

It might be slightly exploitable but at this point I’d just fold, I expect you won’t see a lot of bluffs here. But really just check flop. You’ll have plenty of Ac in your betting range – it’s nice to get some into your checking range.

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