November 4, 2013
Couple of things are in effect here. UTG+2 got crippled early, but has made a really strong come back by getting AA multiple times in short succession. Hasn't shown down a hand worse than AK. MP is pretty active, but not crazy active.
I don't think there is a lot of reason to consider 3 betting. While it's probalby not horrible, we are more than deep enough to set mine. Flop seem standard enough. Turn checks around, so I'm thinking TT is probably really good here and we should be able to check/call a normal river bet.
Then that happens, and I'm left scratching my head. I'm just not sure what kind of hands get played like this that I'm beating, other than 77-99. If he wanted to bluff, this seems like a very strange sizing to do it with??
Note: I know it's not supposed to effect my thinking, but I've been running atrociously bad this week. I'm about 32% in coin flips, 26% in 80/20s and exactly 0% in 20/80's over about 30 tournaments. So as much as it's not supposed to effect me, it is. While I probably should of gone to play golf today for that reason, I'm playing decent so far.
PokerStars - $100+$100+$15|20/40 NL - Holdem - 9 players Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 UTG+2: 70 BB (VPIP: 23.08, PFR: 12.82, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 39) MP: 145.58 BB (VPIP: 34.21, PFR: 10.53, 3Bet Preflop: 11.11, Hands: 39) MP+1: 198.75 BB (VPIP: 31.43, PFR: 8.57, 3Bet Preflop: 15.38, Hands: 35) CO: 101.13 BB (VPIP: 25.64, PFR: 18.42, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39) BTN: 131.98 BB (VPIP: 17.95, PFR: 7.69, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39) SB: 99.75 BB (VPIP: 17.95, PFR: 15.38, 3Bet Preflop: 6.67, Hands: 39) Hero (BB): 104.83 BB UTG: 117.78 BB (VPIP: 30.77, PFR: 12.82, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39) UTG+1: 162.73 BB (VPIP: 35.90, PFR: 12.82, 3Bet Preflop: 10.00, Hands: 39) SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has T T fold, fold, [color=red]UTG+2 raises to 2 BB[/color], MP calls 2 BB, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 1 BB Flop: (6.5 BB, 3 players) 6 5 6 Hero checks, [color=red]UTG+2 bets 3 BB[/color], MP calls 3 BB, Hero calls 3 BB Turn: (15.5 BB, 3 players) 5 Hero checks, UTG+2 checks, MP checks River: (15.5 BB, 3 players) 5 Hero checks, [color=red]UTG+2 bets 20 BB[/color], [color=red]MP raises to 40 BB[/color], HERO???
November 4, 2013
I got curious about just how rough the run was while lying in bed. Brain wouldn't let me sleep until I knew. I'm somewhat obsessive like that at times. I am aware it's a totally futile stat and that it was wasting energy.
I did consider leading the river, and that probably would have been the best option. Not sure what I would have done if I led river and got min raised like that. My bet would have been smaller though, so probably have to just call. I did fully expect one of the two of them to bluff at it, given that the turn got checked around. We hadn't been seeing very many uncontested pots at the table.
TPE Pro
September 28, 2012
Ya I would be bet/evaluating this river. i ust think it will get checked tway too much(aka not really bluffed). AS played its a fold.
Bet liek 8-9 BB and count the free money.
For Coaching - ccuster911@gmail.com - HH Reviews/Leak Finder(HEM or PT)/Concept Discussion
November 4, 2013
Foucault said:
OK, just so you're clear that checking only makes sense if you think their bluffing range will be larger than their calling-with-worse range. On a relatively dry run-out in a multiway pot, I'd be doubtful of that, personally.
My check/call decision was very specific to this pot. Had the river come off a 9h, I'm betting 100% of the time. I'm probably betting every river other than an A, K, 6, 5.
I did end up folding, as did UTG+2. I was happy with my fold, because it's hands like these that I'm finding to be my largest leak. I have a bad habit of making crying calls, and it's been costing me bad as of late.
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