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Nitt fold ?
Buckmeister88
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September 2, 2014 - 1:52 am
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Playing in a live satellite at Peppermill casino in Reno, NV into a main event for a series they are about to have this fall. Hand happens in the 200-400 level with a 25 ante I think. Had been doing good so far and had (IMO) been establishing a good image. Was playing pretty TAG early, as I normally do in the pre-ante stages. Was raising with decent and taking down pots with flop c-bets and winning pots without show down. Two villains in the hand are the typical “older guys”, late 50’s-early 60’s, who play live. (Limping preflop a lot but somehow almost always calling raises when they get ISO’d and half time will check fold preflop, only makes big raises with the nuts, etc.) I was asked by one of the villains “do u not like seeing flops ?” (Cuz I always entered a pot with a raise).

So blinds are 200-400 with a 25 ante. There’s about 30 runners left out almost 50. I’m sitting on about 20k stack (50 bbs), villains at about 12k and 14k. Starting stack was 12k.

First old guy villain limps UTG+1, action folds to other villain and he also limps in at the cutoff. Dealer and small blind fold to me in the big with 9c-4c and I decide to check my option. I do this knowing that even if I had tried to squeeze here both would be calling at least 75% of the time. So decide to just check. So going to the flop pot is 1625.

Flop comes Qs-Jc-10c.

Giving me open ended and a club flush draw. Pretty good flop for me.
Wanting to let them try and take a stab it, because I think it’s possible that both of them caught a piece of the flop. I check. First limper leads out for 600 and second villain calls.

Now I’m almost certain that both of them have a piece of the flop. As I put them on not floating this flop (or even know what floating is actually lol no offense). I decide to check raise to 1975. Pretty big sizing I know, but with these players’ styles and the table dynamic. I wanted to get see if I could get heads with one of them and maybe take down pot with another bullet on the turn.

First villain thinks for about 5 seconds and jams his 11k stack in. The second villain follows suit and re-jams his remaining 12.5k stack into the pot.

I am throwing up in my seat. I instantly figure that I am up against AT LEAST two pair and possibly a higher flush draw. I also thought that already made hands might be in play too such as K9 or AK off suit with maybe one club and flopped sets. Now, usually I am almost NEVER folding this hand.

I go into the tank for a couple mins.

After thinking about everything and going back through the hand a few times in my head. I figured there a lot of made two pair hands and or made straight hands with both possibly having back door draws to the clubs. It’s a live satellite and I technically do not have to “get all the chips.” I only feel that there are a few good competent players in the field and that I have a pretty decent edge on the field. I somehow find a fold.

Is this too nitty ? I just feel that I am always up against one made hand and possibly a better flush draw. I mean i only have middle clubs even tho there’s only 3 clubs better than mine with the J & 10 being on the board. Sigh this one gave me nightmares let me know what u guys think. Can give the runout of the board and the two villains hole cards if u want.

Riar
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September 2, 2014 - 6:56 am
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IMO leading out > check-calling > check-raise calling > check raise- folding

Foucault

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September 2, 2014 - 9:31 am
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I like check-evaluating, especially with such predictable opponents. That way you can see who bets and how much before deciding whether to raise.

I don’t agree that the check-raise is large, in fact I think it’s too small though that doesn’t end up mattering in this case. Your raise offers either of these guys nearly 3:1 on a call.

Have you tried putting this through Slice? I gave both Villains all combos of sets/two-pair/straights and nothing else. You’re actually a slight favorite. It’s true that your equity will go down considerably against AcXc, but as you say you have blockers to that and do either of these guys seem like the sort to just snap-ship it with a draw, even a big one?

Riar
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September 2, 2014 - 5:30 pm
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I was a little unsure whether leading was actually > than check calling, because I think they are really close…So once we check and face a scenario where both players call should we ALWAYS call instead of raising vs opponents like op described ?? it looks to me as a perfect spot to just call

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September 2, 2014 - 7:38 pm
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Results notwithstanding, they both seem weak enough to me that I want to raise (and thereby commit). One guy bets 1/3 pot on a scary board, other guy just calls – given how little fold equity you need to make a raise profitable, I can’t see just calling here, even in a satellite.

Buckmeister88
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September 2, 2014 - 8:44 pm
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Thanks Foucault and Riar for your feedback much appreciated.

I guess one mistake might have been that I didn’t lead because I wanted to try and keep both villains in the pot or try to induce a bet from one or both. That being said, I know this board hits both of their calling ranges a high % of the time, but I wouldn’t put it past one of these guys folding a semi decent hand on the flop (such as a pair of jacks with a back door flush/straight draw). My thought process was if they had draws, that they are either four flushed at the flop or have an up and down straight draw. So my range on their hands is KcQc, KcJx, Kc10x, KcXx, KcXc, Kx9x, Ac10x, AcXc. Didn’t put him on pocket aces, kings, queens with one club because I feel he would’ve 3bet preflop even tho he originally open limped.

I realize that my check raise on the flop did give them good odds to call but i figured with these players on that wet of a board they are not going to continue with a bare jack or ten and quite possibly a queen even if it’s AQ. I felt as if these players were too afraid of the nuts and would worry as if I had a made hand. Once was wrong with the ensuing 2 consecutive stuffy bakers to follow my check raise.

Given my read and the table dynamic, I saw this as absolute strength being portrayed by both players. But at the same time, with their tight passive tendencies, I put them on medium preflop strength hands that have flopped a monster. Such as Kx9x, AcXc, or sets and 2 pairs. I think they are 100% of the time raising preflop with pocket pairs jacks+, A-10 suited +, and maybe KQ suited.
So I agree with you Foucault, I am never just calling the flop. I think that just leaves u too vulnerable on the turn if u brick.

This would’ve been a sick fold either way, being results orientated or not. Anyways, so I muck. The villain who first shoved all in after my check raise, rolls over his hand and shows Kx9x for the second nut straight. The second villain SHOCKINGLY only shows the Qc8x. I felt as if he was stronger than that.

Turn card comes King of diamonds.
Giving me at least a chop if I continued

River card comes 3 of clubs.
Would’ve been good game, later !! I’ve got heaps. Would’ve been sitting on about 43k at 200/400. Sigh

markconkle
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September 2, 2014 - 8:58 pm
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Buckmeister, why do you say you want to raise and get heads up on the flop?  To me, winning the pot immediately seems best, followed by the pot remaining three-way (gives you better odds to actually hit your hand).

Buckmeister88
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September 3, 2014 - 1:49 am
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Markconckle,

To clarify, I wanted to check raise on the flop to get heads going to the turn. And I wanted to do that because these guys are “habitual limpers” so it is already tough to range them and on such a wet board, I thought it was plus ev to raise and try to get heads up to make the hand easier to play.
(And we all know if the hand is easier to play your gonna be more profitable hehe)

If your asking about why I didn’t try to raise preflop and just get the limpers to fold, then the answer is because I felt that a lot of the time since they already limped they will be calling a raise. So figured I’d save myself the chips and see the flop because I felt like my post flop game was better than there’s and scoop the pot post flop

markconkle
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September 3, 2014 - 8:54 pm
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No, I was referring to the checkraise on the flop.  I think it's very dangerous to make decisions based on making the hand “easier to play.”  As long as you choose the correct play at each point, being “easy to play” does not affect your profitability in any way.  You should choose the action that maximizes your profit, not prevents you from having to make hard decisions later.

 

So, no, we don't “all know” that easy means good.

 

So in terms of actually making money (and not playing a subgame of “easiness”) what exactly do you gain by making this pot become heads up?  

 

I can see some possibilities, but you need to be thinking about these, not “easiness.”  

1) You want to win by bluffing.  By getting heads up, your future bluffs are more likely to succeed and thus more profitable because you only have to make one person fold.

 

2) You want to make other draws fold so that more of your outs are live.  

 

Some reasons to want two callers:

 

1) There are higher actual and implied odds on your money. This makes hitting your draw more profitable.  The downside if your bluffs will be less profitable.

 

Clearly two folds is nice because you win immediately.  We can all agree that's +EV.

 

Until you start thinking about these types of considerations, you will not improve.

Buckmeister88
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September 4, 2014 - 12:24 am
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“Respectfully” sir,

Isn’t it in the interest of “making money” to make the hand easier to play by raising to define your opponents ranges and getting a better idea of where they are trying to go with the hand a profitable play ? IMO, it is easier to range and try to play against only one opponent and set of cards instead of two, that way you aren’t trying to play a “guessing game.” If I truly wanted to just make the hand only easier to play without regard to winning the pot wouldn’t I just call and only try to give myself only one shot of winning the pot thru my cards ? Instead of trying to give myself another way to win the pot by raising ?

I’m sorry if u took my response as that I was only raising to make the hand easier to play, but that is not the case. I am trying to possibly isolate being just basic math that I have a better shot of being one hand instead of two, and I am also trying to build the pot for when I do hit my draws (which is even better if I get 2 callers). I did think of all of your very valid points you made about why it is good to get to heads up. For example, your reason #1, you say getting heads up makes it more likely for your bluffs to go through since u only have to get your bluff through one person. Wouldn’t u say that makes it “easier” to take down the pot with a bluff ? This is what I was thinking and maybe I was speaking too generally, for that I apologize.

And again, respectfully, how can u say that easy is not good ? Easy calls means you have the nuts, easy folds are easy ways to avoid trouble in pots, and usually tourneys that go “easy” for u (when u have one of those good days where ur running good and confident in all your decisions) lead to good results do u not agree ???

markconkle
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September 4, 2014 - 7:48 am
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It certainly doesn't hurt to make the hand easier to play, but it shouldn't be a large factor in your decisions.  

 

For example, what's the easiest hand in poker to play?  Probably 72o.  The hand is so bad that you don't have to think too much about position your opponents range, or really anything else.  Barring the times when it is checked to you in the BB, you should simply always fold this hand.  A hand like J9s or 55 is much harder to play well!  I think a tournament that goes “easy” for me is one where I am dealt 72o every hand and lose the first time I'm all in.  

 

Or take this extreme example.  How do you make the river easy to play?  Always shove or fold on the turn!  

 

When a hand is easy to play, you are unlikely to make any more mistakes.  However, that doesn't mean that the original play wasn't a mistake.  

 

I know you aren't saying this was the only factor, but I think you've put too much stock in it is all.

 

I'm particularly worried about this line:

 

“I am trying to possibly isolate being just basic math that I have a better shot of being one hand instead of two.”

 

This really isn't always “basic math.”  While its true that eliminating a player makes us more likely to win, the amount it improves us is going to change dramatically based on our range and our opponents ranges.  If we make the (bad) assumption that both opponent have any two cards, you are 48.5% to win against two players, and 61.5% to win against one.  Alternatively, if we held AsJs, we would be 55.6% against one player and 73.2% against two.  Notice that in the first case eliminating a player gives us 13% but in the second it gives us 17.6%.  This is because with 9c4c, we are basically having to hit to win, whereas with AsJs we are primarily hoping our opponents don't catch up with us.  

 

Or think of equity.  There's about 1600 in the pot before the flop bet.  If you call the 600 there will be 3400 and (against with the bad assumption of playing against random hands) we have 1649 of equity (our call is about +1000 ev) based on our changes of winning the pot.  If we raise to 1975 and get called once, there is 6150 in the pot and we have 3782 of equity.  We have spent an additional 1375 to gain about 2100 in equity.  This is good.  Our raise is about +1700 if called in one place.  But if called in two places the pot is 7525 and we have 4628 in equity, our raise is about +2600 in equity.  Of course if both players fold we win the 2800 out there, so we are +2800 in equity.

 

Now (and only now) should we consider how play on future streets will affect our equity.  On the negative side, we are out of position, but we have a hand that will either improve or worsen drastically by future cards. It's hard to say whether getting called by two players is better or worse than getting called by no players.  However, I find it extremely doubtful that being called by one player is what we want to have happen here.

 

Granted I didn't have time to create realistic ranges for these guys (though given what they showed, maybe it's not as far off as we think), and of course their calling range of your flop raise probably isn't 100% of the range the put the 600 in with, so this isn't proper analysis.  It just still seems likely to me that being called by one player is the worst outcome.

Buckmeister88
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September 5, 2014 - 1:33 am
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Fair points sir. And duly noted.

I agree with you hands down that in the long run yes it is better to have the added equity that comes with 2 callers. The pot is built more heavily and you are likely to get paid off for hitting your draws as his 2 pairs and sets might still pay us off. All I was trying to say was that in this hand as played, I didn’t want to be drawing against 2 hands when even I do make my hand I may not even have the nuts.

If a king comes any Ace gets there and my straight is no good, plus I that there a decent % of time where our club draw may not be good even though we do have blockers.

That being said, going with your feedback if we do get 2 callers of our 1975 check raise, what would be your optimal line if we brick the turn ?

Seems brutal to poss be check folding turn (if miss). Where as if we are heads up, a decent sized turn bet might get our opponent to fold. And if we get raised we can revaluate.

I would say in this spot, I would be LOVING getting 2 callers with KcXc. Having the 9 (idiot end) is what makes me more shaky, cuz felt that’s kings are for sure in their calling range.

Anticipating your feedback. As you can tell I’m more of a feel player and your way more math based I def like this convo. Good chat.

markconkle
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September 5, 2014 - 7:41 am
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I definitely agree that with the K high flush draw we definitely want two callers, whereas with the hand we have, it is less important.  

 

I can see where you're coming from, and I agree that one down side of getting two callers is the probability of having to check-fold the turn.  I would say if the turn pairs the board, I am check-folding to any reasonable sized bet, because my outs have probably been decreased or removed.  On any other turn, I would be check-evaluating, thinking primarily about the size of the bet in terms of what odds I am being offered.  

 

Mathematically, we are losing value on brick turns when two players call the flop, whereas gaining it by bluffing when only one player does.  This is what your intuition is telling you, and its true.

 

Of course, when we hit the turn, we are more likely to get value against two players than against one.

 

And that's all after taking into account our actual equity changes on the flop.

 

It makes it into a pretty complicated question to solve precisely, which is why playing by feel is so common.  The trick is to make sure that your feel is correct, and there's not really a good way to do this besides math.  It's not something you have to think about for every hand, but when you have a hand that you want to analyze further, it's a good idea for anyone to start thinking a bit more mathematically.  You may find out that some plays you think are obvious are in fact not the best play.

Foucault

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September 5, 2014 - 9:53 am
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Nice discussion guys. Glad to see the tone took a turn towards the friendlier 😉

 

To further complicate matters, I will argue that there are some cases where it's actually easier to bluff the turn into two players. A player who overcalls a flop check-raise is pretty much guaranteed to be “drawing” to something. It's very rare to see someone who believes he has the best hand just call in a spot like this. So his call basically just bloats the pot to make your bluffs on blank turns more profitable without substantially increasing the risk that you run into a hand. In other words, there isn't much in his flop overcalling range that's going to call a big bet on a blank turn. Moreover, if the other player in the hand doesn't realize this, then he may give you more credit than he should for betting into two players on the turn.

 

This comes up a lot more often in deep-stacked cash games than in tournaments, but it's a common enough dynamic to complicate your “easier to bluff one opponent than two” assumption. It may be “easier” in the sense that it will succeed slightly more often, but more often than you'd think it's a higher EV spot to barrel into two players than one.

Foucault

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September 5, 2014 - 10:01 am
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Wrong thread.

Buckmeister88
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September 8, 2014 - 12:46 am
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Thanks Foucault. Didn’t realize that you were the legend himself, Andrew Brokos, who was posting on our thread. So so awesome, gotta love TPE. Very interesting point that in certain situations, bluffing the turn into 2 players might be the better, easier play. I also agree that someone who thinks they have the best hand are flatting the flop, and therefore a good % of the time an over call on the flop means he or she is holding a drawing/non-made hand. Then, making your fired turn bullet look so much stronger. That being said, are we making the right fold (not being results orientated) because both villains shove after my flop check raise ??

Am also happy that this convo turned for the friendly. Was never trying to be unfriendly, just get very passionate when in “poker debates.” Was never trying to say i was right or anyone was wrong :).So Markconckle, if this is what you were trying to infer in our previous posts, props to you sir.

MovesLikeDarvin

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September 8, 2014 - 10:23 am
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generally speaking, im not going to be a fan of ch/r these player profile types if im ever folding.

the “limp-call, ch/f, only bet big with the nuts” kinda guys you are describing, aren't generally betting without a hand with some merit (what that is, exactly, can be hard to figure out when we dont think they have any clue). that said, wouldn't these players be much happier to check thru when they flop, say, second pair no straight draw? or most one pair hands? the kinda guys who ask you “do you hate flops?” un-ironically won't be betting this flop with the kind of ranges that younger, more aggressive players will.

check-raise/call >> check-raise/fold no matter what. i dont even mind check/calling, re-evaluating turns, specifically when we close the action (as it appears we do here).

Buckmeister88
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September 9, 2014 - 1:32 am
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i completely agree, i too am not a big fan of check/raise folding in that spot. I hated letting that hand go, even when I was almost positive that at least one them was on a strong hand. Over the long run, and over a good sample size, I dont think check raise with a plan to fold is a good play. That being said, when I made the decision to check raise, I didnt expect to get jammed on by both villains.

 

On that note, lets say this hand/situation was in a bigger buy-in tournament with “presumably” more competent players. If I had the same hand with the same board, when I check raise does it always make my hand look like a draw ? As I know that sometimes some players have been known (myself included) to check raise in my spot with a set or maybe 2 pair. Also, do u feel most players are raising a flopped straight with no clubs especially since the pot is 3-way (such as the one villain in the hand) ?

redvulture61
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September 10, 2014 - 2:44 pm
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I like check/calling here with this hand for 1.  This board is terrible for our range overall so we should be checking almost always. By Check/calling since we close the action we can control the size of the pot more effectivly and play turns better. We also have a great hand that has great playability on future streets and our decision on almost all turns is not going to be difficult given the player types. 

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