TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
I like check-evaluating, especially with such predictable opponents. That way you can see who bets and how much before deciding whether to raise.
I don’t agree that the check-raise is large, in fact I think it’s too small though that doesn’t end up mattering in this case. Your raise offers either of these guys nearly 3:1 on a call.
Have you tried putting this through Slice? I gave both Villains all combos of sets/two-pair/straights and nothing else. You’re actually a slight favorite. It’s true that your equity will go down considerably against AcXc, but as you say you have blockers to that and do either of these guys seem like the sort to just snap-ship it with a draw, even a big one?
October 21, 2013
I was a little unsure whether leading was actually > than check calling, because I think they are really close…So once we check and face a scenario where both players call should we ALWAYS call instead of raising vs opponents like op described ?? it looks to me as a perfect spot to just call
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Results notwithstanding, they both seem weak enough to me that I want to raise (and thereby commit). One guy bets 1/3 pot on a scary board, other guy just calls – given how little fold equity you need to make a raise profitable, I can’t see just calling here, even in a satellite.
March 8, 2013
No, I was referring to the checkraise on the flop. I think it's very dangerous to make decisions based on making the hand “easier to play.” As long as you choose the correct play at each point, being “easy to play” does not affect your profitability in any way. You should choose the action that maximizes your profit, not prevents you from having to make hard decisions later.
So, no, we don't “all know” that easy means good.
So in terms of actually making money (and not playing a subgame of “easiness”) what exactly do you gain by making this pot become heads up?
I can see some possibilities, but you need to be thinking about these, not “easiness.”
1) You want to win by bluffing. By getting heads up, your future bluffs are more likely to succeed and thus more profitable because you only have to make one person fold.
2) You want to make other draws fold so that more of your outs are live.
Some reasons to want two callers:
1) There are higher actual and implied odds on your money. This makes hitting your draw more profitable. The downside if your bluffs will be less profitable.
Clearly two folds is nice because you win immediately. We can all agree that's +EV.
Until you start thinking about these types of considerations, you will not improve.
March 8, 2013
It certainly doesn't hurt to make the hand easier to play, but it shouldn't be a large factor in your decisions.
For example, what's the easiest hand in poker to play? Probably 72o. The hand is so bad that you don't have to think too much about position your opponents range, or really anything else. Barring the times when it is checked to you in the BB, you should simply always fold this hand. A hand like J9s or 55 is much harder to play well! I think a tournament that goes “easy” for me is one where I am dealt 72o every hand and lose the first time I'm all in.
Or take this extreme example. How do you make the river easy to play? Always shove or fold on the turn!
When a hand is easy to play, you are unlikely to make any more mistakes. However, that doesn't mean that the original play wasn't a mistake.
I know you aren't saying this was the only factor, but I think you've put too much stock in it is all.
I'm particularly worried about this line:
“I am trying to possibly isolate being just basic math that I have a better shot of being one hand instead of two.”
This really isn't always “basic math.” While its true that eliminating a player makes us more likely to win, the amount it improves us is going to change dramatically based on our range and our opponents ranges. If we make the (bad) assumption that both opponent have any two cards, you are 48.5% to win against two players, and 61.5% to win against one. Alternatively, if we held AsJs, we would be 55.6% against one player and 73.2% against two. Notice that in the first case eliminating a player gives us 13% but in the second it gives us 17.6%. This is because with 9c4c, we are basically having to hit to win, whereas with AsJs we are primarily hoping our opponents don't catch up with us.
Or think of equity. There's about 1600 in the pot before the flop bet. If you call the 600 there will be 3400 and (against with the bad assumption of playing against random hands) we have 1649 of equity (our call is about +1000 ev) based on our changes of winning the pot. If we raise to 1975 and get called once, there is 6150 in the pot and we have 3782 of equity. We have spent an additional 1375 to gain about 2100 in equity. This is good. Our raise is about +1700 if called in one place. But if called in two places the pot is 7525 and we have 4628 in equity, our raise is about +2600 in equity. Of course if both players fold we win the 2800 out there, so we are +2800 in equity.
Now (and only now) should we consider how play on future streets will affect our equity. On the negative side, we are out of position, but we have a hand that will either improve or worsen drastically by future cards. It's hard to say whether getting called by two players is better or worse than getting called by no players. However, I find it extremely doubtful that being called by one player is what we want to have happen here.
Granted I didn't have time to create realistic ranges for these guys (though given what they showed, maybe it's not as far off as we think), and of course their calling range of your flop raise probably isn't 100% of the range the put the 600 in with, so this isn't proper analysis. It just still seems likely to me that being called by one player is the worst outcome.
March 8, 2013
I definitely agree that with the K high flush draw we definitely want two callers, whereas with the hand we have, it is less important.
I can see where you're coming from, and I agree that one down side of getting two callers is the probability of having to check-fold the turn. I would say if the turn pairs the board, I am check-folding to any reasonable sized bet, because my outs have probably been decreased or removed. On any other turn, I would be check-evaluating, thinking primarily about the size of the bet in terms of what odds I am being offered.
Mathematically, we are losing value on brick turns when two players call the flop, whereas gaining it by bluffing when only one player does. This is what your intuition is telling you, and its true.
Of course, when we hit the turn, we are more likely to get value against two players than against one.
And that's all after taking into account our actual equity changes on the flop.
It makes it into a pretty complicated question to solve precisely, which is why playing by feel is so common. The trick is to make sure that your feel is correct, and there's not really a good way to do this besides math. It's not something you have to think about for every hand, but when you have a hand that you want to analyze further, it's a good idea for anyone to start thinking a bit more mathematically. You may find out that some plays you think are obvious are in fact not the best play.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Nice discussion guys. Glad to see the tone took a turn towards the friendlier 😉
To further complicate matters, I will argue that there are some cases where it's actually easier to bluff the turn into two players. A player who overcalls a flop check-raise is pretty much guaranteed to be “drawing” to something. It's very rare to see someone who believes he has the best hand just call in a spot like this. So his call basically just bloats the pot to make your bluffs on blank turns more profitable without substantially increasing the risk that you run into a hand. In other words, there isn't much in his flop overcalling range that's going to call a big bet on a blank turn. Moreover, if the other player in the hand doesn't realize this, then he may give you more credit than he should for betting into two players on the turn.
This comes up a lot more often in deep-stacked cash games than in tournaments, but it's a common enough dynamic to complicate your “easier to bluff one opponent than two” assumption. It may be “easier” in the sense that it will succeed slightly more often, but more often than you'd think it's a higher EV spot to barrel into two players than one.
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
generally speaking, im not going to be a fan of ch/r these player profile types if im ever folding.
the “limp-call, ch/f, only bet big with the nuts” kinda guys you are describing, aren't generally betting without a hand with some merit (what that is, exactly, can be hard to figure out when we dont think they have any clue). that said, wouldn't these players be much happier to check thru when they flop, say, second pair no straight draw? or most one pair hands? the kinda guys who ask you “do you hate flops?” un-ironically won't be betting this flop with the kind of ranges that younger, more aggressive players will.
check-raise/call >> check-raise/fold no matter what. i dont even mind check/calling, re-evaluating turns, specifically when we close the action (as it appears we do here).
June 1, 2012
I like check/calling here with this hand for 1. This board is terrible for our range overall so we should be checking almost always. By Check/calling since we close the action we can control the size of the pot more effectivly and play turns better. We also have a great hand that has great playability on future streets and our decision on almost all turns is not going to be difficult given the player types.
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