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Need help on a very important key pot on 1$+R 3x Turbo MTT on Pokerstars
p1kZoR
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May 16, 2013 - 8:14 pm
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Hello,

i need some help on a hand. Ive got deep in 1$+R Tourney on Pokerstars. 14 people were left and 1. prize was $14k, ive busted 14th and got 300$… (I was 8./14. i think …everyone had something around 30-40 million stacks)

 

Some facts to Players. “Thaleskoppe” is a PlatinumStar player and was the bigstack of this MTT. All other players were nitty and huge rocks. So thaleskoppe was minraising a lot. Avrg stack was about 40million. Was that move profitable and good? Its nearly impossible to get so deep in this bingo 1$r tourney and im not sure if my move was good, because i risked my tournamentlife with it. But like ive said, thaleskoppe was raising a lot and nobody challenged him. I was tight and the only hand they saw were JJ, when i had a showdown.

In my opinion it was a good try, but i think u know… when u bust after a good move, u always sad and unsure about it. Please analyze this one for me. Thank You

 

Poker Stars $1.00+$0.10 No Limit Hold’em Tournament – t1400000/t2800000 Blinds + t280000 – 7 players – View hand 2211149
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

b00ster7777 (UTG+1): BB = 2.7, t7612432
thaleskoppe (MP): BB = 34.5, t96486844
Gedazas (CO): BB = 6.2, t17367077
Saufomat2000 (BTN): BB = 10.2, t28663600
Hero (SB): BB = 11.3, t31655938
sandra_f1 (BB): BB = 21.3, t59669915
diabliczka (UTG): BB = 10.0, t28115520

Pre Flop: (t6160000) Hero is SB with 8 of hearts 6 of clubs
2 folds, thaleskoppe raises to t5600000, 2 folds, Hero raises to t31375938 all in, sandra_f1 raises to t57151876, 1 fold

Flop: (t70311876) J of clubs 4 of spades A of spades (2 players – 1 is all in)

Turn: (t70311876) 8 of diamonds (2 players – 1 is all in)

River: (t70311876) 9 of diamonds (2 players – 1 is all in)

Final Pot: t70311876
Hero shows 8 of hearts 6 of clubs (a pair of Eights)
sandra_f1 shows K of hearts A of diamonds (a pair of Aces)
sandra_f1 wins t70311876

MASTERHOLMES
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May 16, 2013 - 10:17 pm
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i know the 10 bbs rules, shove so you dont' get  blinded out. however you are not shoving with ace jack here but against a raise, and bb yet to act.

i would prefer for a better hand for this reshove,, or the button/cut off to shove 66s/ace 10 sited/kingjack suited if not opened.

p1kZoR
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May 16, 2013 - 10:23 pm
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10BB rule doesnt matter in this special tourney so much. U still have foldequity with 3-4BB stack in this 1$+R tourney, when ur so deep.

I just prefered to get some chips without showdown and it seemed for me the perfect spot to try. Thats the problem. I definetly had a healthy stack and didnt have to risk with it. But i didnt want to get Short, when we get FT. And i thought the best way to win a huge pot without showdown is to 3bet shove this bigstack, which wont call me without having big pocket or a nice ace..

markconkle
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May 16, 2013 - 10:26 pm
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When you shove on this guy he's getting good enough odds that he is probably calling a lot.  Unless he is literally opening ATC you are probably getting called too much to make this play with such a bad hand.  I could see maybe a T9s, depending on just how aggro this guy is.

p1kZoR
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May 16, 2013 - 10:40 pm
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even if I was tight avrg stack with my first 3bet shove? Because of my tight image, i dont think he would have called me with 2:1 odds, because he should know im pushing at least AQ+/TT+

He was raising like 50% of all hands in the last 15 hands i think. Once got 3bet shoved and folded.

The problem I have is the special tourney structure. People blind out untill like 3BBs and still got foldequity with it, even BB always get 2:1 odds to call. Avrg stack is 10BB etc.

In my opinion the calling range kinda falls down from 2:1 odds, to something around 2.5:1 odds

But im not sure about it. Im playing this one often and thats just what i noticed.

 

And because of my special tight image and a healthy Avrg stack, i thought that would be the easiest way to take a shot to win 10mio chips without showdown.

 

I think his calling range against my push there would be something like 99/TT+, AQ+ (even with these good odds and his stack, i dont think he would have called me with AT…maybe AJ)

 

He stole often the blinds. Its more profitable for him to fold and just minraise next hand again, because he has the chips and a very tight table.

 

Im not sure if my thinking is fine so far..

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May 16, 2013 - 10:58 pm
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in your post there you keep talking about him,, however you forgot to mention that the bb might wake up iwth a big hand,, and 86 off suit doesnt' do well against that range.

p1kZoR
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May 16, 2013 - 11:12 pm
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Ofc he can, but that didnt matter so much on the shove. BB gonna only call with best premiums. He had twice showdown and both times AK. So if he gets it again, ul to me. When u try to steal blinds, u always go for it (not thinking “oh maybe BB wakes up with monster… A5 would be bad vs. a monster, so maybe i shouldnt steal..”)

 

That he got AK there was just unlucky, my mainquestion is if this push was ok or profitable. If BB didnt wake up with AK, i would have got 30% bigger stack for free.. And thats massive for this tourney and 14 left..

 

Is this risk it worth to get these 30% bigger stack…? If i would have waited 1 orbit more, than i definetely wouldnt have any 3bet shove fold equity anymore, thats why i decided to try it here

 

My hand was pretty unimportant there. I just played the bigstack and my tight image. Before he raised, i already knew he gonna go for the blinds. So i would have shoved there very very wide range, just because of my image and the fact it was my first 3bet shove…

Al29
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May 17, 2013 - 4:03 am
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Hey – one of the videos on this site has a shove/reshove/call shove equity spreadsheet linked to it. Its really useful to use alongside pokerstove to plug in what % hands villain is opening and calling a shove to (perceived), you can then plug in blinds, stacks etc and what equity your hand has against his calling range and bingo you can see if its an EV shove. Without doing this myself I would say that even though you have a decent amount of fold equity that your hand needs to be better for the times you are called to make it profitable overall. There are other considerations also such as do the pay jumps for outlasting other stacks make a big difference to your overall bankroll, if so then going for the win here may be sub optimal and outlasting others more preferable.

As with all things it is often easy to say and not as easy to do in situ. Cheers.

p1kZoR
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May 17, 2013 - 8:17 am
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Thanks for help so far… Seems that nobody likes my shove there 🙁 makes me sad ive made this bad move in such important spot..

Would be nice if a TPE pro would comment this hand too, thanks

rivermen123

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May 17, 2013 - 4:19 pm
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If the rest of the table is really that tight, I would just fold this hand and wait for better opportunities. The big stack has enough chips to call you fairly light.

However, I think your analysis is good. You're definitely thinking about the right things. I don't hate the shove. I've definitely made this type of shove before, based purely on the fact that nobody else is playing back at a chip leader who's running over the table. (That said, I'm known for turning over some laughably light shoves….)

Anyway, your cards are just a secondary consideration in a spot like this. It seems like you just got unlucky that someone woke up with a hand.

If you want to do a mathematical analysis of this 3bet shove, I think fpppro.com has a good calculator.

p1kZoR
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May 17, 2013 - 4:44 pm
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Thank you a lot

Al29
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May 17, 2013 - 5:46 pm
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Ok I lumped the data into the TPE_EV_Calcs.ods – gave villain an opening range of 50%, and a calling range of 8% which is 88+ and A10+ suited or unsuited. Your shove is +EV with only an 11.45% risk of Busto, so I guess the large gap between his opening and calling % makes it a good shove if you are happy he was opening 50% and would call that tight, if you lessen his opening range to 40% and make his calling range 12% it's closer but still EV with a 21% risk of an early bath. Lighter calling ranges obviously push you towards – EV.

 

Take from that what you will smile

p1kZoR
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May 17, 2013 - 5:58 pm
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And thank you again 🙂 I was very sure about his calling range. I didnt hate my shove, but wasnt sure if it still was a bad one. Now i can be sure it wasnt bad. It was aggressive, but not bad and i got unlucky BB woke up with the monster.

“based purely on the fact that nobody else is playing back at a chip leader who's running over the table.”

Thats what I didnt like. All other players were too tight and moneyscared. And if i didnt have pushed in this orbit, i wouldnt try it anymore after paying the blinds, coz than he would get like 3:1 odds… And he would have crushed the FT bubble for sure on our table. Tried to slow him down abit, unlucky for me the BB woke up 🙁

Thank you

packallama
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May 18, 2013 - 1:26 am
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I REALLY DISLIKE your 3b jam preflop. Just because the opener has a very wide range does not make 3b shoving 86o for 11bbs profitable. Players who open very wide usually realize their image and call 3b jams wider to compensate. You talked about how your image would discourage him to call properly, but we do not even know if he is aware of your image or will even adjust if he is. The calling range you assigned him is just WAY TOO TIGHT. I think it is more reasonable that he calls your jam with 15%: 22+, A7s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QTs+. Not to mention the BB waking up with 6.8%: 88+, AJ+ and reshoving behind you. Just because a player is running over the table does not mean we should go after him in spots like this. If he is truly opening as wide as you said then we can 3b jam a more value wieghted range and get calls from dominated hands. Poker is a game of betting lines, bet sizings, and frequencies. Throwing in hands like this into your 3b jamming range because you have a feeling is just bad.

p1kZoR
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May 18, 2013 - 10:48 am
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Well at first thank you for your arguments, but i definitely disagree with you

 

Players who open very wide usually realize their image and call 3b jams wider to compensate. You talked about how your image would discourage him to call properly, but we do not even know if he is aware of your image or will even adjust if he is.

 

This is not default poker theory. You cant just analyze my situation, like you would do in a 400 runners regular 10-15min blinds tournament. It was a 15000 runners 1$ rebuy turbo tourney. U dont play it the same when u get deep, like in others. People minraise with 6-8BB stacks and still fold on a shove. They shove 3BBs and still gets a fold by the BB, even BB have like 3:1 odds to call. If u make it like to the last 2 tables in this tourney people are MUCH tighter, than normally.

 

I would not 3b shove a Bronze-Chromestar player there, who is not capable to fold KJo, 22-77 etc. there. I googled thaleskoppe stats and had an eye on him. He was a good player, who is thinking way ahead, than just “im loose, so others gonna shove loose too”. Ofc he knows his image, and im not a fish who got just lucky to make it that deep there. If I 3b shove him, Im pretty sure “he knows, that I know he raise loose and I know he may be calling me light”

I think he was the only player at the table who was analyzing the situations step further, than you or others at the table would do. So if I shove him, he knows that im risking my tournament life in a HUGE players field with a healthy stack vs a BigStack. And Im sure he knows that i cant just risk it with crap hands vs HIM (because he got more chips and “could” call lighter)

 

That were my analysis and Im pretty sure he would have folded vs. me too. And im pretty sure his calling ranges are something like ive wrote. I could make it a bit looser, than it would be 77/88+, AT+ (but i dont really believe he would risk 30% of his stack vs. ME with 77 or AT..) If I would be him, its more profitable for him just to fold, and make 5 more minraises to steal, than to call me off lightly 10BBs preflop… And with such a tight table its definitely more profitable for him to fold and just to open next hand again..

 

If your stats are right, u are good in deep blinds MTTs. The calling ranges, that you just wrote, are perfect ranges to call in a regular 10-15min blinds 10$+ tournament. But in this one he would never ever call me with 22 or KJo, KTs etc.. Because I wasnt in trouble or crippled to risk it that lightly. So if i risk my tournamentlife, it has to be a monster, because im a capable player of highlevel thinking just as he is. Thats the reasons why i would disagree with you..

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May 20, 2013 - 3:16 am
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packallama said:

I REALLY DISLIKE your 3b jam preflop. Just because the opener has a very wide range does not make 3b shoving 86o for 11bbs profitable. Players who open very wide usually realize their image and call 3b jams wider to compensate. You talked about how your image would discourage him to call properly, but we do not even know if he is aware of your image or will even adjust if he is. The calling range you assigned him is just WAY TOO TIGHT. I think it is more reasonable that he calls your jam with 15%: 22+, A7s+, ATo+, KTs+, KJo+, QTs+.

I agree with this. I think his calling range is far wider, as mentioned above. He still leaves himself with a decent stack after the call, and getting nearly 2 to 1 he should be calling with a lot of hands. Even if he calls and loses, he will still be table chipleader…

FkCoolers
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May 20, 2013 - 9:06 am
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Right thought process but wrong spot, IMO. 

The hand is too weak and I'd rather pick the ATC jam over a late position raise from him than an early/mid position raise. 

Besides, if your table is as nitty as you say you should be more inclined to open jam light when folded to rather than 3b jam a hand like this, even vs. the most active opener at your table. 

Just my take on it. 

p1kZoR
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May 20, 2013 - 10:06 am
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Besides, if your table is as nitty as you say you should be more inclined to open jam light when folded to rather than 3b jam a hand like this, even vs. the most active opener at your table.

 

Not so often ive got this situation. Rather thaleskoppe was on SB/BB and i was afraid of openshoving ATC vs. him from LP, because that looks weaker than 3b shove vs him (imo)…

And if he wasnt SB/BB, he was opening the hand. So it was kinda hard for me to pick up a right spot.

I picked up the 3b shove, because i thought it looks stronger, than LP openshove

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