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August 17, 2016
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Around two months ago I decided to get coaching from one of the pros here at TPE, I went for theginger45 for a number of reasons, and today after bubbling the Big $3.30 for seemingly the 10th time I thought, I really don’t feel like I’m winning more money since I’ve gotten coaching, infact I feel like i’m having to deposit all the time.
So I jump into PT4 and pop in the day of my first session and do a before and after graph. And I was right.. kind of.
…..om/a/6i9ck – Before
…..lery/jSgYh – After
So clearly I’m a much better player since the 13/09/16 (little plug for Matt) however alarmingly my ROI has gone from -9% which makes sense for a losing player. To -40%!?
Now I’d like to ask some of you guys what this is a product of, I thought it could be one of the following:
Just plain bad variance at the wrong times e.g. on bubbles, on pay jumps etc and nothing to worry about.
Not knowing how to play on bubbles or pay jumps and something I should work on.
My BB/100 isn’t high enough to be a winning player yet and I still have work to do.
Running bad late in tournies OR playing worse late in tournies against the better players who are left.
And lastly running bad in the higher buy in tournaments and running just fine in smaller tournies.
I imagine it’s a combination of all of these especially the 2nd however if anyone else has experienced something like this (I’m sure someone has) how did you get out of this slump?
Also sorry if this sounds like I’m moaning about variance I’m honestly not I just wanna fix my ROI.
Thanks guys, llinoscarpe
May 20, 2015
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Well done on the turnaround, looks like Matt’s coaching has really helped.
There is a huge amount of variance in the ROI in mtts, therefor it’s really not a valuable indicator of how well you are playing over the sample size you’ve given. EV BB/100, whilst not a perfect indicator of how well we are playing, is the best we have. Your winrate has massively improved (though the sample size is small) and you should be very happy with that. Your EV BB/100 is in fact high enough to be a winning player in the second graph you’ve posted, however it is not guaranteed you will be a winner with that winrate. Nobody is going to be able to look at a winrate graph and be able to tell you where you are going wrong or even if you doing something wrong.
ROI goals make little sense as the sample sizes needed (10k+ tournies) to determine true ROIs are so big that by the time you have the sample you are a completely different player to when you started. Focus on increasing your winrate and becoming a better player and you will eventually get better results.
June 2, 2013
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20k hands is too small of a sample, seems that you improved a lot, keep playing and result will show.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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OP and I have discussed this already but for the others in here I just wanted to chime in and point out that people’s first assumptions are correct here – sample sizes are very small. With the uptick we’ve already seen in OP’s EV I would expect results to turn around at some point in future, but trying to anticipate when that will be is fairly useless. Keep grinding and the results will come, OP. 🙂
May 22, 2016
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Yeah, I had a similar experience when I first started playing, in that because I binked $200 in a 50c tourney my ROI was amazing, but if you looked deeper at my stats I was obviously a losing player. Having burned through that money I focused on improving, and my BB/100 has consistenly climbed since then, but only in the last 18 months did my ROI, and overall return actually start to catch up and improve.
Just remember that by playing better, and always being aware of bubble play and ICM you increase your chance of making the Final Table, and hopefully making that big score which will sort your ROI out right away!
TPE Pro
December 30, 2013
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as well explained already here and elsewhere, there is a high amount of variance in MTTs. but also, bb/100 (or EVbb/100) and observed ROI (short term especially) in tournaments are not even that heavily correlated!
think about it: sure, if you increased your bb/100 from 6.0 to 8.0, that’s an expected winrate increase of 33%. good job! but would you expect your ROI to increase 33% as a result? well, are you now 33% more likely to win a tourney? probably not. where that extra 2.0bb/100 is coming from—maybe you plugged a pre-ante leak, or at the midstages, or your FT play—will probably affect how much your observed ROI would get a boost, and it’s going to be hard (and not particularly fruitful) to pinpoint where those new BBs are coming from…especially with only 50k hands 
upshot: tournament chips aren’t cash, so using your bb/100 as an indicator of what your tourneyROI will look like isn’t going to be very effective.
February 20, 2015
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This reminds me of a bad habit I had more than 10 years ago when I was using the original PokerTracker. You have to watch out for gamifying your stats. What I mean by that is if you make certain decisions to make your PT stats look a certain way, you’re GTO for the wrong game 🙂
In those days, your VPIP and preflop raise percentage were all that was used to assign an icon to your stats. So anytime my icon would change from the eagle or moneybag, I would change my style of play to get the icon back. This is incredibly stupid (and embarrassing to admit).
Anyway, I bring it up to add to Chris Moon’s point. If your bb/100 is negative in tournaments, and you start trying to steal more in early stages to making that number positive, you’re not stealing for the right reasons. (Who knows? Maybe you do need to steal more. But this isn’t necessarily going to be the reason why.)
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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MovesLikeDarvin said
as well explained already here and elsewhere, there is a high amount of variance in MTTs. but also, bb/100 (or EVbb/100) and observed ROI (short term especially) in tournaments are not even that heavily correlated!think about it: sure, if you increased your bb/100 from 6.0 to 8.0, that’s an expected winrate increase of 33%. good job! but would you expect your ROI to increase 33% as a result? well, are you now 33% more likely to win a tourney? probably not. where that extra 2.0bb/100 is coming from—maybe you plugged a pre-ante leak, or at the midstages, or your FT play—will probably affect how much your observed ROI would get a boost, and it’s going to be hard (and not particularly fruitful) to pinpoint where those new BBs are coming from…especially with only 50k hands
upshot: tournament chips aren’t cash, so using your bb/100 as an indicator of what your tourneyROI will look like isn’t going to be very effective.
This is true as you’ve expressed it obviously – there’s no direct correlation. But as a coach I find it extremely useful to use bb/100 to gauge performance in specific situations, and there’s no doubt that it’s absolutely impossible to be a long-term winning player with a negative bb/100.
It almost goes without saying that we shouldn’t assume increases in bb/100 and increases in ROI are correlated to the extent that one directly influences the other, especially given how much of our ROI is determined by ICM performance, but for beginners it’s certainly a lot better than having no idea at all what your strengths and weaknesses are.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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joelshitshow said
This reminds me of a bad habit I had more than 10 years ago when I was using the original PokerTracker. You have to watch out for gamifying your stats. What I mean by that is if you make certain decisions to make your PT stats look a certain way, you’re GTO for the wrong game 🙂In those days, your VPIP and preflop raise percentage were all that was used to assign an icon to your stats. So anytime my icon would change from the eagle or moneybag, I would change my style of play to get the icon back. This is incredibly stupid (and embarrassing to admit).
Anyway, I bring it up to add to Chris Moon’s point. If your bb/100 is negative in tournaments, and you start trying to steal more in early stages to making that number positive, you’re not stealing for the right reasons. (Who knows? Maybe you do need to steal more. But this isn’t necessarily going to be the reason why.)
Actually, I don’t think that last part is true at all. If you’re stealing in a profitable spot to steal (or any other spot), it will increase your EVbb/100 by nature, and therefore increasing your EVbb/100 is a natural consequence of a good play. If a move is not +EV, it will not increase your EVbb/100, and if a move is +EV, it will. So increasing your EVbb/100 is pretty much the only reason to ever do anything, except where ICM considerations are involved. I don’t really see what our motivation for making a certain play would be if we didn’t think it would even be +EV in chipEV considerations, and even if it’s +0.1bb in chipEV, it makes us an extra 10bb/100 in that spot. There’s no such thing as a ‘good spot’ that doesn’t increase your EVbb/100, even if things that increase your EVbb/100 might not always be good ICM decisions.
However, I definitely agree that HUD stats are much less important – you can be a winning player with stats of 16/12/6 or with stats of 24/22/10, but your ROI is what matters. Playing with the intention of hitting a certain number on your HUD stats is certainly a recipe for considering the wrong factors when making a decision.
February 20, 2015
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I guess what I was saying was trying to steal without considering the table dynamic is a bad idea. Basically a byproduct on focusing on my own hand and my own stats, while incorporating zero context of tournament stage and the playing style of the others at the table.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
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joelshitshow said
I guess what I was saying was trying to steal without considering the table dynamic is a bad idea. Basically a byproduct on focusing on my own hand and my own stats, while incorporating zero context of tournament stage and the playing style of the others at the table.
Yeah, that sounds better. Nice adjustment. 🙂
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