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April 6, 2015
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https://www.weaktight.com/h/553557c3a52511c770055052?results=1 Hey all – the hand above is from Mini FTOPS 3, which was a 6max super deep stack. Started at 750bb. This is about 2 hours in, the antes are here and the action is starting to pick up. Everyone at the table seems very competent, it's the same 6 that started and there have been no massive pots. The villain I'm playing has been the loosest, 30/24, but seems to be quite skilled post flop and has made both some good folds and some hero calls. My table image is very tight: I am running about 15/13, and have only shown two hands down, one two pair and one straight. In the attached hand villain has min-raised UTG and I have called in the BB with 76o. The villain put out a standard c-bet which he always has, I decided to test the waters with a check/raise just under 3x. Villain went into the time bank before calling. With the hesitation I decided I would be prepared to 3 barrel on good run outs. I am representing a set I think so not looking for particular cards to barrel I think. Turn is a 7 though which puts three to a straight on the board and probably me gives me another two outs: 7s. And maybe even another 3 outs if two pair would be good. Given that I c/r with two pair on the flop, I could just have easily done this with TJ so put out a 3/4 pot bet. Again villain went deep into the time bank before calling. I think at this point I can point on quite a narrow range: KQ-KT. I think if he had AK the pre flop raise would likely have been bigger, and could have expected a re-raise. Maybe he could have a set and be hollywooding to suck me in but I think KQ-KT is the main of it. Putting myself in villains shoes, in such a slow structured tournament I didn't think I would be calling off with just KQ-KT, so decided to bomb pretty much any river except an ace or a king. The 4 is a blank so decided to bomb it. I will add one thing I think is a mistake is playing such a big pot when we're still so deep. I think this would have been a better play if under 50bb. But I thought being so deep would give me more fold equity against single pair hands. Thanks for any thoughts on my line!
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December 6, 2012
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Flop and turn are good and I like your reasoning. I'm not sure about shoving river, though. Are there any turn bluffs with which you'd give up? If the answer is no, then you're getting exploited by players who slowplay and/or rarely fold the river after calling turn. You don't have any blockers to the nuts, so this isn't an ideal shoving candidate.
It's possible that a non-shove bluff could be better, balanced by smaller than all-in value bets with sets and strong two-pairs. This could get folds from a hand like T9/J9/KT/KJ that called turn hoping to improve at lower risk.
But yeah, I'd either bluff smaller or not at all with this hand. Don't really agree with what you said about not playing a big pot at this stack depth, though. I mean, you couldn't play a pot like this at 50BB, there wouldn't be room!
May 20, 2013
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I follow everything up until this point: “With the hesitation I decided I would be prepared to 3 barrel on good run outs. I am representing a set I think so not looking for particular cards to barrel I think.”
I understand adding a draw to your check-raise range, but understand you probably have little non-straight showdown value when calls. (What does he call the check-raise with? I cant put him total on air here… Are you thinking he has something thin and you are getting called just because he doesnt want to give up yet?)
If you think you can barrel him off, then you fire the turn. Again, I can follow your logic/line, although can I surmise you bet more than 1/2 pot because $1650 seems too small after a $1200 check raise? (would $1650 accomplished what the $2500 did?)
When he calls the $2500, it seems like an big indicator that he might call a river. But you felt like you had a plan and if you had a set you would play it this way, which is all plausible. although Deep, calling 15BB on the turn is significant.
Was there ever a point where you might stop and weigh that you may end up bluffing off 72 BB if you shove river?
Because I cant see what he is calling that turn with that doesnt call a river when a blank falls. If he believed the set, I believe he folds the turn. If not, then he can probably beat bottom pair. Especially if he thinks you are TAG.
(I think you could have lost $3170 and given up on the river.)
April 6, 2015
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Foucault said:
Flop and turn are good and I like your reasoning. I'm not sure about shoving river, though. Are there any turn bluffs with which you'd give up? If the answer is no, then you're getting exploited by players who slowplay and/or rarely fold the river after calling turn. You don't have any blockers to the nuts, so this isn't an ideal shoving candidate.
It's possible that a non-shove bluff could be better, balanced by smaller than all-in value bets with sets and strong two-pairs. This could get folds from a hand like T9/J9/KT/KJ that called turn hoping to improve at lower risk.
But yeah, I'd either bluff smaller or not at all with this hand. Don't really agree with what you said about not playing a big pot at this stack depth, though. I mean, you couldn't play a pot like this at 50BB, there wouldn't be room!
Thanks for the reply. I think on the turn I probably give up with gutshots and Ax hands. Are there any bluffs we should be shoving on this river?
The villain called in the end with KQ, which is about the hand I put him on. I was thinking, if I am in his situation with that hand am I calling, and I'm probably not. But I guess my mistake there is I'm not him and he may have different though processes.
April 6, 2015
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ltcolumbo said:
Because I cant see what he is calling that turn with that doesnt call a river when a blank falls. If he believed the set, I believe he folds the turn. If not, then he can probably beat bottom pair. Especially if he thinks you are TAG.
(I think you could have lost $3170 and given up on the river.)
Thanks, this is somethign I hadn't thought of and not sure why as it's kind of obvious. I tend to think that by just showing sheer strength you may changed villain's opinion, but you're right the card rarely changes anything so not the best shoving candidate.
Re: my turn sizing yes I went bigger both for more folds and to make it more credible. If I had a set and he'd shown he probably has showdown value by calling a 3-bet I'd be sizing my bet so I could shove river. I also think the smaller sizing makes it too easy for weak Kx to call.
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December 6, 2012
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ltcolumbo said:
I follow everything up until this point: “With the hesitation I decided I would be prepared to 3 barrel on good run outs. I am representing a set I think so not looking for particular cards to barrel I think.”
I understand adding a draw to your check-raise range, but understand you probably have little non-straight showdown value when calls. (What does he call the check-raise with? I cant put him total on air here… Are you thinking he has something thin and you are getting called just because he doesnt want to give up yet?)
If you think you can barrel him off, then you fire the turn. Again, I can follow your logic/line, although can I surmise you bet more than 1/2 pot because $1650 seems too small after a $1200 check raise? (would $1650 accomplished what the $2500 did?)
When he calls the $2500, it seems like an big indicator that he might call a river. But you felt like you had a plan and if you had a set you would play it this way, which is all plausible. although Deep, calling 15BB on the turn is significant.
Was there ever a point where you might stop and weigh that you may end up bluffing off 72 BB if you shove river?
Because I cant see what he is calling that turn with that doesnt call a river when a blank falls. If he believed the set, I believe he folds the turn. If not, then he can probably beat bottom pair. Especially if he thinks you are TAG.
(I think you could have lost $3170 and given up on the river.)
Of course he can beat bottom pair. That's why we're bluffing.
What about hands that call the turn looking to improve, but will fold river if they whiff? T9, T8, TT, JJ.
May 20, 2013
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Foucault said:
ltcolumbo said:
I follow everything up until this point: “With the hesitation I decided I would be prepared to 3 barrel on good run outs. I am representing a set I think so not looking for particular cards to barrel I think.”
I understand adding a draw to your check-raise range, but understand you probably have little non-straight showdown value when calls. (What does he call the check-raise with? I cant put him total on air here… Are you thinking he has something thin and you are getting called just because he doesnt want to give up yet?)
If you think you can barrel him off, then you fire the turn. Again, I can follow your logic/line, although can I surmise you bet more than 1/2 pot because $1650 seems too small after a $1200 check raise? (would $1650 accomplished what the $2500 did?)
When he calls the $2500, it seems like an big indicator that he might call a river. But you felt like you had a plan and if you had a set you would play it this way, which is all plausible. although Deep, calling 15BB on the turn is significant.
Was there ever a point where you might stop and weigh that you may end up bluffing off 72 BB if you shove river?
Because I cant see what he is calling that turn with that doesnt call a river when a blank falls. If he believed the set, I believe he folds the turn. If not, then he can probably beat bottom pair. Especially if he thinks you are TAG.
(I think you could have lost $3170 and given up on the river.)
Of course he can beat bottom pair. That's why we're bluffing.
What about hands that call the turn looking to improve, but will fold river if they whiff? T9, T8, TT, JJ.
I actually spent some time thinking about exactly what you said here Foucault, before I posted. My thinking did take those thoughts into consideration. I did not see him calling the turn with the hands you denoted (matched my list) based on Hero's line and image. I might be wrong, but I did consider it (especially JJ, which I considered a probable holding).
April 6, 2015
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I definitely think they would have called the turn with those hands. Clearly they're not calling here because they think their hand is a monster. I think they know what I was representing and didn't believe me, so anything that beats a pure bluff was probably calling there.
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