Originally when I had looked at this hand I thought it was a sigh fold. After some investigation I actually believe its a jam/call. This hand brings up some really interesting talking points. In the following post I will also attempt to use CRev to analyse this situation.

Regarding the villain: his stats, the positions we are in and your stack size he has a tight range. I expect this to be something along the lines of QQ-22, AQs-A9s, KQs-KJs, QJs, AQo-ATo, KQo-KJo, QJo. This may even be too loose as villain is probably 3betting JJ+, AQs etc preflop sometimes and not flatting some offsuit broadway combos. However I think this is a decent range for starters.

Regarding villains range on the flop it is very hard to see that villain has any bluffs here considering he has a tight preflop range and min raises your cbet with basically no fold equity behind. After we cbet we only have 6765 chips left with 5170 in the pot. After he raises to 4000 the pot is 9170, leaving us with 4765 to jam over the top and giving him ridiculous odds to call. Basically him raising to 4000 and jamming is pretty much the same thing as he is never folding. 

I ran this through CRev (I have only recently started implementing study with CRev and am still an inexperienced user at it, so forgive any errors i may have made). 

Given villains preflop range of QQ-22, AQs-A9s, KQs-KJs, QJs, AQo-ATo, KQo-KJo, QJo I think he would 3bet or jam (we conclude the same range in this instance) with any broadway holding a club, an overpair with or without a club, a set, made flushes, Ace-highs with Ax of clubs and 55, 66 with a club for his gutshot straight flush draws.

Given this range we have 36.9% equity.

When we shove villains flop bet and he calls we are putting in an extra 4765 into a total pot of 20700, meaning we only need 23% equity against his range. If villain shoved our cbet instead of min raising we need to call 6765 into 20700 and we need 32.6% equity against his range to be break-even. This means it is still a call. 

Its important to note with deeper stacks this would be a sigh fold as we are not committed with our equity. 

I think its also important to discuss your cbet sizing. Cbetting 2000 into a 3170 is too big (63% PSB).

Please also note that i have completely disregarded the BB in this model as BB will have a very narrow range after this flop action has taken place (probably Axc, a set or made straight – all of which you arent particularly happy about getting in).

I thought this spot was really interesting, thankyou for posting. 

I would really like to hear input from anyone on the above comments and CRev model, in particular Andrew.

For any of the users out there with CRev i have posted the text block below:

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@Foucault: “Whether he shoves and you call, or he min-raises and you shove, either way you are contributing another 6765 into 20700 and will need the same equity.”

You are correct to say that my original comment was wrong. I was meant to say that we are putting in an extra 4765 after his 2000 bet (6765 in total). Thanks for pointing this out.

@Foucault: “Well, calling could also be an option.”

Calling is definitely also an option but it feels like there are so many bad turn cards for us given his range after he raises. If we had much deeper stacks I feel like we wouldnt want to call some more streets on most turn and river cards. With deeper stacks villain probably flats alot more of his range rather than raising this flop. Food for thought.

I asked for your input on the model mostly due to the conditions editor. I have been in contact with Scylla, the creator of CRev about the condition editors and the process it goes through and how we should be editing conditions in systematic manner. When I have a concrete process for the way to implement this given our desired outcome I will make a post here or elsewhere. 

Since posting this model I have found some slight changes that will make this model more effective (mainly due to cEV vs ICM and tournament vs cash mode) however I do not have time to change the model right now. I will edit this post with the changes later.