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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Mid Stages with a Rivered Straight …

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Mid Stages with a Rivered Straight on Paired board, Raise for Value?

southpaw_r32

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Guests

February 28, 2011 - 8:48 pm

Villain is VP:20/PFR:11 over 78 hands.

My stats for the tourney so far are tag with VP:12/PFR:11, however I've been openning up in late position through the mid stages etc.

(Bubble has recently burst and we are ITM at this stage)

I'm never folding on the river, but wondering whether to raise for value or just flat…….???

Hands that I beat that might look me up are trip 4's like A4s any lower straight (however not sure if he has many 3's in his range unless he has 33) and maybe two pair type hands 99/TT etc

Obviously if he has the fullhouse I'm out of the tourney if I raise/shove on the river……

Thoughts???

Poker Stars $8K GTD No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t2500/t5000 Blinds + t625 – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

UTG+1: BB = 23.7, t118691
MP1: BB = 23.2, t116135
MP2: BB = 32.4, t161765
Hero (CO): BB = 28.7, t143516
BTN: BB = 17.3, t86567
SB: BB = 35.2, t176130
BB: BB = 35.2, t175826
UTG: BB = 63.1, t315369

Pre Flop: (t12500) Hero is CO with 8 of spades 7
4 folds, Hero raises to t10155, 2 folds, BB calls t5155

Flop: (t27810) 4 of diamonds 6 of hearts 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t27810) 7 of clubs (2 players)
BB bets t10000, Hero calls t10000

River: (t47810) 5 of diamonds (2 players)
BB bets t35000, Hero ???

bjci94

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Guests

March 1, 2011 - 12:05 am

BB has A7 88 99. Look at the bet sizes and the PFR stats. Call pre, check flop waiting for you to bet, fires a small turn bet no pot building there but it does get value from his 99, 88 or A7. You have only called after not firing a flop cbet. What does that line mean, usally flush draw. No flush completes on the river BB's value time. I think you could almost jam the river to look like a bluff. You may not get called all the time but you will get called enough to make it profitable.

He could have a set but if you a set, would bet so small on the turn.

You've got this guy beat.

I think…..

G0liath

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Guests

March 1, 2011 - 4:01 am

I dont like raising this river since he rarely calls a raise with anything less than a straight at that point (unless he's awful), but always calls if he filled up. Ususally villain will be check/calling that river card with trip fours, any 3 or overpair, not bet/calling. His river bet shows significant strength IMO

i would just take the equity in my hand rather than trying to squeeze out marginal value here since its your whole tourney on the line if your wrong.

savant111

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Guests

March 1, 2011 - 11:58 am

Flop: I would c-bet this board every time. 20/11 guys flat w a pretty wide range and you are going to take down pot a ton. I think the money we make by betting is well worth the risk of getting blown off our draw.

Turn: Like the call

River: (edit I thought villain has 75K not 175) Flat is the safe play imo, but I do think villain can have a 4 or 3.

Hagbard Celine

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Guests

March 1, 2011 - 12:48 pm

his river bet is pretty big and i highly doubt he's calling it off with a naked 4 on a 4-straight board. definitely calling but i think shoving is slightly suicidal.

isaacjames

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Guests

March 1, 2011 - 3:03 pm

Damn! I had a nice long post analyzing the possible ranges and I screwed it up and lost it, anyway, based on his actions by the river I put him on Missed flushes he is bluffing, Monsters like boats and Quads, a series of str8s and a few 2 pairs hands (98s, 87s, 76, 77-33, A7s, A7o), pairs Higher than TTs he would have 3bet, and 99s and 88s he would have bet on flop to protect them from overcards. With this in mind this is a clear River call IMO, you are getting over 2-1 and are anywhere from 76% favorite to worst case 45% dog. Raising doesnt make sense to me as he is polarized to monsters or bluffs. very few middle of the road hands here that you can beat if he calls a raise or shoves.

southpaw_r32

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Guests

March 2, 2011 - 5:56 pm

Thanks for your replies TPE Nation….

See below for the results. I considered just calling but went down the other path of shoving and as soon as I shoved, I just hated my play (before Villain even acted) and thought that was pretty loose. Villlain pretty much snap called……..

Poker Stars $8K GTD No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t2500/t5000 Blinds + t625 – 8 players
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (t12500) Hero is CO with 8 of spades 7
4 folds, Hero raises to t10155, 2 folds, BB calls t5155

Flop: (t27810) 4 of diamonds 6 of hearts 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

Turn: (t27810) 7 of clubs (2 players)
BB bets t10000, Hero calls t10000

River: (t47810) 5 of diamonds (2 players)
BB bets t35000, Hero raises to t122736 all in, BB calls t87736

Final Pot: t293282
Hero shows 8 of spades 7 (a straight, Four to Eight)
BB shows 7 of diamonds 8 (a straight, Four to Eight)
BB wins t146641
Hero wins t146641

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