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September 15, 2015
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WPN, 300/600 blinds, 60 ante No Limit Hold’em Tournament, 8 Players
SB: 12,126 (20.2 bb)
BB: 14,885 (24.8 bb)
UTG+2: 14,620 (24.4 bb)
MP1: 9,608 (16 bb)
MP2: 53,573 (89.3 bb) LAG 29/23 over 160 hands w/ 11 3b
MP3: 41,686 (69.5 bb)
CO: 10,515 (17.5 bb)
Hero (BTN): 65,458 (109.1 bb)
Preflop: Hero is BTN with Qc Qs
2 folds, MP2 raises to 1,200, 2 folds, Hero raises to 3,000, 2 folds, MP2 raises to 8,123, Hero calls 5,123
Flop: (17,626) Js 2s 5s (2 players)
MP2 bets 8,813, Hero calls 8,813
Turn: (35,252) 2d (2 players)
MP2 bets 36,577 and is all-in, Hero?
I think my 3bet sizing here looks strong. Am I wrong? When he 4bet I’m thinking since he’s the other big stack at the table the last thing I want to do is get in a monster pot here or get it in crushed so I call. I’ve got an overpair and flush draw on the flop but still am pretty hesitant to raise/get it in thinking he could well have AA or KK, call the cbet. Then first to act he just ships on the blank turn, putting me in a brutal spot. I’m not seeing monsters under the bed, this guy probably has AA, KK, or AK with at least 1 spade that beats mine, right? I can’t see getting in a big pot here against the big stack if I’m him unless I have the goods. I feel it was the right laydown but it definitely rattled me a bit.
Did I make the right play?
May 20, 2015
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I think the hand is well played on all streets.
December 24, 2013
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FWIW, I run with numbers around that over a really large sample. How sure are you that he has KK+/AK here?
June 2, 2013
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I dont like the 3bet, first because you don´t really want to thet 4bet and GII here, and second because the blinds have sqz stacks that can move all in, and make you win a big pot, specially when MP2 tries to isolate with a wider range.
OTT you are getting about 2:1 on a call, and against a range of KK+, AsKs, AdKs, AhKs, AsKd, AsKh, AsKc, AcKs you have 31.25% equity, if V has a bit more of a wider range the call will be profitable.
OTF, when V cbet, you should evaluate what to do OTT, because you will have a PSB, not sure if is good to GII OTF tow, with the Qs.
December 24, 2013
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I think most players on ACR are going to defend the BB there if you call. Maybe you’ll see a squeeze from 99-AA, AQ. I don’t think anyone’s waking up with K5s and shoving there. If they were, or you have reads that they hate postflop and will rip, I like a flat more. It’s kind of a good spot for flatting a lot of hands. The small blind may squeeze wider, like 22+, AT+, KTs etc. Say 15% for him, 5% for the other guy. That’s about 20% of the time overall.
Going three ways to the flop isn’t that bad though.
September 15, 2015
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jacobsharktank said
FWIW, I run with numbers around that over a really large sample. How sure are you that he has KK+/AK here?
How sure was I? Well…. not sure. I’m sort of going with the “they always have it,” theory.
Digging into stats now that I didn’t look at in-game, I can see that he does have a 4 4b out of the 20 hands I’ve seen him play in which he was 3bet. Not really statistically significant I think when it comes to the 4bet stat in particular.
Agreed it would have been a good spot to flat but I’m probably calling it off if there’s a pf shove from the blinds and V iso shoves. If V flats the shove I’ve got to be a bit suspicious though. I probably flat as well. With a bigger pot I’d be willing to get it in on the flop then.
It’s really his 4bet that makes me feel there’s a good chance I’m beat from the jump.
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