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September 30, 2013
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This is the biggest 11 dollar tournament merge offers, full of bad players. The bubble burst with 370 players remaining and new we are down to 250. The villian in this had just got seated at our table. He had 91k infront of him to start the hand. I have 52k. blinds are 1250/2500 with a 250 chip ante.
Villian is in MP, it folds around to him, he makes it 8.5k. I have JJ. What is the best play here? I have no reads on villian but his pf raise looks nutty. I think his range could be 99+, AKs, AKo, AQs, AQo, AJs, and maybe KQs. Against this range i have 50% equity. If his range is on the tighter side, say JJ+, AKs, AKo, AQs, I only have 38% equity.
My thinking with this hand is it would be a big mistake to fold JJ here, I don't have a ton of chips, I wouldn't feel good about calling pf and then folding to agression on the flop or turn. My hand is just too good to fold. Is my thinking correct?
September 30, 2013
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i'm on the button by the way.
August 31, 2013
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I'm just shoving, he is a probably a fish because of his 3.5BB raise. I d'ont think he is doing that with AA/KK. His range is very AK/AQ heavy, something like AQ+, 99-QQ, you have 57% against that (59% if we add AJ).
September 30, 2013
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I have seen this type of play before and it's almost always AA KK and AK. Lost of fish don't like AQ and think it's a deceptively bad hand becuase they have selective memories of busting with AQ to AK or they watch the WSOP on ESPN where Norman Chad swears that AQ is a cursed hand and they take Chad's word as gospel. I'm not saying your wrong, I'm just saying that in my experiece (500,000 or so hands of trial and error) when ever this situation arises and I have TT or JJ I know I'm behind, but I know I can't fold.
June 26, 2012
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Three bet call or just jam it on him. Never folding here. I am not good enough to skip this hand.
September 24, 2013
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Interesting and somewhat familiar spot… In considering decision I am also taking into account:
1. Stack sizes of SB and BB… How have they been playing and what chances of a call from the blinds if I shove, or the chances of one of them cold 3 or 4 betting depending on wether I call or or 3 bet. Or do they have a shoving stack?
2. Am not sure what structure is like… Are blinds up shortly or can we get a few more orbits with current stack etc… If I know within a couple of minutes my stack will be 15 or 12bb.. This might be the spot I go with trying to maximise any fold equity we might have… Especially from the blinds.
I think we could find a fold here, given a certain set of circumstances and what action the blinds are most likely to take. However I think I favour a call if I consider Villians range is weighted towards broadway combos and we think one of the blinds might just call with their rags.
Plan on flop… If favourable, I.e – 10 5 3 rainbow I am jamming over Villians inevitable c-bet. If he has Q’s + gg sir, however I think we get folds a lot of the time… If flop K Q 8 on a two tone board… I could find a fold, given range we have him on and his likely aggression… We still have chips, so given our edge we can find another spot to chip up…
Interesting spot… However with all information, I think we are in a good spot to make the right decision…
September 30, 2013
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the blinds had the same size stack as mine and were playing very straight forward. I hadn't seen them cold 4 bet at all. I can't remember if the blinds were going up soon, but I lean towards thinking not. If I remember correctly, they may have just gone up. I hate 3 betting, unless we're just gonna get it in when he shoves. I think our range looks weaker when we shove, becuase we are not just shoving AA or KK or AK or QQ here, so we are more likely to get called by AQ or TT (if those hands are even in his range). We want action from these hands, so a 3 bet looks really strong, especially on our stack size. I think flatting and playing the flop can get us into tricky situations. What if the flop comes K 9 4 and he leads into us. Do we flat hoping that he shuts down on the turn? Do we shove hoping he folds QQ? So much room for error if we call and re-evaluate on the flop.
September 24, 2013
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Yes, certainly agree that a K 9 4 flop is a tricky spot, however, I personally still think flatting is still the best of the 4 options – however thinking about it more a jam is a very close 2nd IMO as I feel it is at this point I think we are maximising our fold equity if his range is actually a little wider than first considered.
With regards to his range, what we do know is that he has close to 40bb and he has just hit the table and with action being folded around to him could he be rasing a little light? i.e. any pair, plus possibly suited connectors or suited A – even any 2? He might be putting a bet out there to test the waters and get a gage on the table and be planning to fold to a 3-bet or jam…
Also important to consider what range we are representing in this spot if we flat, we could easily have a K in our range… I certainly reflect on a number of podcasts etc, where the guys are open in discussing their uncertainly when they get a player who flats them in position… This to me can also represent strength and a pretty strong range which certainly has plent of K combos in it, plus we have the benefit of position.
ICM wise we are putting out tourney life on the line if we do shove on a K high flop – Do we feel we have a big edge on the field? My guess is yes, so conserving chips by folding on a K high flop to aggression might be the right play if we are putting a K squarly in his range; as we still have 18 or so big blinds to play with, plenty of time to find a better spot and make a deep run. Be assured that your fold is the right decision and look forward to the next hand… However doubling up in ths spot would be pretty sweet… 
May 6, 2013
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Its 250 players left, so ICM shouldn´t really be that important, we need to increase our chip stack so we could go for the win. This looks like a perfect spot to shipp, I would jam this in pre, if we flat then there is around a 56% chance of seeing a q+ on the board, so that would put us in a bad spot, unless villain only bets once or c/f straight up. He could call a smaller pair than ours pre, but would just c/f a lot of flops so we wont get any more value from those hands. Also there are plenty of hands we flip against that we are ahead, so I would just do it. My two cents.
September 24, 2013
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MadBaltic said:
Its 250 players left, so ICM shouldn´t really be that important, we need to increase our chip stack so we could go for the win. This looks like a perfect spot to shipp, I would jam this in pre, if we flat then there is around a 56% chance of seeing a q+ on the board, so that would put us in a bad spot, unless villain only bets once or c/f straight up. He could call a smaller pair than ours pre, but would just c/f a lot of flops so we wont get any more value from those hands. Also there are plenty of hands we flip against that we are ahead, so I would just do it. My two cents.
Certainly don't disagree at all, chipping up and putting ourselves in a spot to chip up and run deep certainly needs to be front of mind… Am actually watching theginger45's hand review series, alot of interesting spots he is discussing and have only seen part 1 and 2, and based upon watching these two parts am swaying more towards the shove… You need to run well in these spots to win / run deep.
What do you think about:
A) Villian's 3.5x opening bet?
B) What range this might represent?
September 29, 2012
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I think you are making unwarranted assumption on the villain's range due to sizing. You said he just sat down so you have no reads. Some players just hit the pot button all the time because they are lazy or they don't know better. And pot button in this case is 8.5k.
Shoving JJ all in here preflop is so super standard. Even if his range is just AA/KK/AK (which i very seriously doubt) you are still getting 40% equity. But in reality in MP with a big stack, his range is likely to be at least 77+, AJ, KQ and probably some semi-bluff hands such as small pairs and suited connectors, but that depends on whether he makes adjustments for stack sizes. Good players will reduce these when there are 20BB stacks behind as they don't want to get 3 bet shoved on light and have to fold.
June 8, 2012
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Can we just snap this in already!! Flatting is terrible and folding is way too nitty with no reads. Doods are lazy button clickers on sundays while watching futbol… Stuff and run goodies. If hes got it then so be it.
September 24, 2013
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LOL… Yep, absolutely… Definately a shove… JJ definately ahead of his range, and if not – we run well…
June 11, 2012
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few points:
1.) i dont like terms like “this is 100% AA,KK,…” or “this is never AA,KK because of….”
to me this is results oriented thinking and selective memory of situations where either A or B was the case.
If one would look through all HH here combined and calculate the distribution of A and B it would probably be around 50%
2.) i dont know where the ICM hype comes from. ICM is a mathematical model to give a $ value to the chips. It has its benefits and also its draw backs. One of the main drawbacks is that it is almost impossible to calculate its implications with more then 2 tables. To many unknown variables like future game situation, average skill and so on are not taking into the equation
3.) also the fact that you are questioning a hand which seem to be fairly standard relates to point 1.) where results oriented thinking comes into play sets alarm bells of
for some people 3.5x is actually their standard size even post ante and they do it with their entire range.
i have calculated tons of spreadsheets of reshoving ranges vs all different opening vs calling ranges. And tbh there is not a single scenario i remember that JJ with 20BB is not a profitable reshove given the positions.
4.) stacks behind are important. If stacks in the blinds are actually around 20BB i might consider flat calling with KK,AA here. I hardly ever do it with JJ as there are to many overcards which makes life tough on flop and turn if facing multiple bet sizes
5.) hands like this would be a perfect example to assign OR and CR to different villain types and then run the math. doing this makes your reshove game second nature in the long run. And there is nothing more important then proper reshoving in online MTTs where most of the time we spend with 20-30BB
with all that said,
I am either 3b/calling or reshoving doesnt really matter much
cheers
May 30, 2012
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insta 3 bet shove with 20bbs and Jacks…if the villain has better than its a cooler. I am using my folde equity to scoop the dead money in the middle if he folds, and villain can also call and turn over 9s and 10s plenty. If villain ahas aq/ak then we are flipping. We are going to have to win about 10-15 more races like this to ship the tourney so lets start now. Best of luck at the tables.
August 31, 2013
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thaWONthaOWNLEE said:
I have seen this type of play before and it's almost always AA KK and AK.
Just a hand I played today. I'm sure I can find a hundred other examples like that. Not saying it's never AA/KK but it's way more often AQ+, TT-QQ or random shit like that. Never folding JJ in that spot espcially wiht no info on villain.
Winamax No Limit Hold'em Tournament – t400.00/t800.00 Blinds – 9 players – View hand 2319608
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter
MACONROM (UTG): t14231.00 17.79 BBs
cluch64 (UTG+1): t10940.00 13.68 BBs
LOISFLASH (UTG+2): t35929.00 44.91 BBs
Hero (MP1): t11141.00 13.93 BBs
Mikou11 (MP2): t7710.00 9.64 BBs
CLEO2009 (CO): t17540.00 21.93 BBs
pheniiixx (BTN): t21628.00 27.04 BBs
Guigz92 (SB): t61636.00 77.05 BBs
Balaam (BB): t28272.00 35.34 BBs
Pre Flop: (t1200) Hero is MP1 with K
A
2 folds, LOISFLASH raises to t4000, Hero raises to t11066, 5 folds, LOISFLASH calls t7066
Flop: (t23332) J 2 7
(2 players)
Turn: (t23332) K
(2 players)
River: (t23332) 4 (2 players)
Final Pot: t23332
LOISFLASH shows T A
Hero shows K A
Hero wins t24007.00
(Rake: t-675)
May 30, 2012
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Im shoving this in his face all day long. If he's got better, then on to the next one. If he hits a 2 outter, on to the next one. You have 20bbs with a premium, STUFFY BAKER w/ JJ………….
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