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(1 votes) 
October 8, 2012
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No Limit Hold'em Tournament T20/T40
Buy-in: $3K Gtd – [2R/1A]
Merge Network
9 players
Formatted by pokercopilot.com – Mac OS X hand history analysis and tracking
Stacks:
UTG – UTG (T4,775)
UTG+1 – UTG+1 (T5,789)
UTG+2 – UTG+2 (T4,039)
MP – MP (T3,427)
MP2 – MP2 (T790)
CO – CO (T2,220)
BTN – Hero (T3,940)
SB – SB (T1,904)
BB – BB (T489)
Preflop: (T60, 9 players) Hero is BTN with A♣A♦
2 folds, UTG+2 calls T40, 1 fold, MP2 calls T40, 1 fold, Hero raises to T220, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls T180, 1 fold
Flop: 9♣7♥6♦ (T540, 2 players – UTG+2: T3,819, Hero: T3,720)
UTG+2 bets T40, Hero raises to T540, UTG+2 calls T500
Turn: 8♣ (T1,620, 2 players – UTG+2: T3,279, Hero: T3,180)
UTG+2 checks, Hero checks
River: K♠ (T1,620, 2 players – UTG+2: T3,279, Hero: T3,180)
UTG+2 bets T1,620
What is the optimal line? Do I bet turn? Do I call on river? Why or why not?
Opponent is running a 46/9 with AF of 1.75. Very fishy.
My thoughts:
Flop: When he min bets the flop I sense a lot of weakness and raise him up huge trying to get him off of draws. When he calls I honestly put him on an 8 most of the time. He does have a few tens in his range as well such as T9, JT, QT, KT, AT, and even T8. I feel like a lot of sets raise here on such a scary board or lead a bit stronger, same with two-pair. Most of the time he has an 8 here or a 10, weighted towards 8's.
Turn: I feel like this is where I make my mistake. I put him on an 8 on the flop so I feel I need to bet this turn for a few reasons. 1. To asses the strength of my hand. 2. To avoid a tough river spot.
River: I was honestly surprised by his river bet being so large. It was exactly pot and it came pretty quick. I feel his range is insanely polarized here. He either has a ten, or he has complete air. I was agonizing over this decision. On one hand, a quick pot river bet from my experience is wieghted towards strength, especially at these stakes and with this kind of player. However, my check on the turn shows a lot of weakness, and with such a strong bet on the flop, I feel like my hand is face up here. But because he is a fish, I'm not sure how often he can make this bluff with that amount of quickness. Looking back on it now, I think a river fold is optimal.
Hands I put him on: JT, T9, T8 MAYBE QT, and air – but what is his air range? Also, Can he do this with a set, like 88?
-Doctor Orange
May 30, 2012
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i much prefer to bet/fold turn small and check back river, it saves us having to face a massive river bet from someone who doesnt know how to size and is going to call with worse but never bet it on turn. as played river is a pretty easy fold just because those stats very rarely indicate a bluff and he could be button clicking sets/two pair top and bottom end straights, all of which crush us
May 30, 2012
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the reason to bet the turn is also to get value from worse hands not for information or to avoid tough spots.
October 21, 2012
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I'd probably shove the turn putting him on a 9, 8, or over pair. If you lose, rebuy and try to play more pots with him because there are no hands he should be playing this way.
October 8, 2012
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@duggs: But what am I really getting value from on the turn? I agree that betting turn is best I just think if I'm getting called with a lot of two pairs and at worse A9. Maybe something random like QJ? I'm curious, what sort of value range would you put him on?
@Loxxii: I think he raises overpairs preflop. Pot was only half my stack on turn. Also its only a double rebuy, so my rebuy would put me at 2K. I don't like this line.
November 19, 2012
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Yeah really seems as though he got his straight, his stats tell me he’s a typical fish who limps too much and is a massive station whenever his hits any pair or draws. The lead out of 40 on the flop usually means he had a draw and was hoping for a flat to peel cheaply.
With this type of player you probably won’t bet him off the pot if he did indeed make his straight, or even two pair.
Pot sized bet is him wanting value after he probably expected you to double barrel the turn and didn’t get it, and fishy players normally don’t have to guts to bet half their stack on a bluff.
Depending your reads on the player, maybe a smaller re raise on the flop would have given you the same info as the 540?
May 30, 2012
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wait a minute is the a 2r 1a, why do we not have a 6k stack?
October 8, 2012
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@duggs: You can only rebuy with 2K or less. It's kind of a bizarre tournament structure.
@NBG: I raise flop for value more than for information. He has already given me most info that I need and just about every other turn card I'm firing hard. Thank you for your input I agree with his river bet being for value. I feel like I lost the minimum here.
October 21, 2012
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I would say that weak bet and just flatting your flop raise takes all 2 pairs and sets out of his range. I can see him just limp calling pre with TT and JJ. So I guess you are crushed on the turn by TT or JT or you are beating JJ, an 8, or a 9. If thats the case, I could shove for value on the turn expecting him to call with draws or check fold depending on if I think better spots would come up. I'd probably pass on this one too since its not an unlimited rebuy.
If you take out the overpairs (I wouldnt) it is even better for you because only JT is ahead unless you think he could check a two pair or set he made on the turn, in which case I am still done with the hand.
Bottom line. Regardless of the previous streets, that river bet on such a wet board definitely means he is ahead of one pair.
November 12, 2012
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It doesn't really matter if he is polarized or not. What really matters are his tendencies and playstyle. Obviously with his stats that you stated, he's passive, so that's one excellent reason to not think he's bluffing here. Even if a spot is nuts-or-air that doesn't mean that (A) he gets to the river with air very often and/or (B) he would bluff with air. There's no reason for him to bet anything worse than a straight here either, and with his stats especially he's just checking. I think your beat every time here and he's just trying to make it look bluffy (while also getting more value).
Second, just because you made yourself look weak doesn't mean he's going to punish you. Again, with his passive stats, he's probably rarely doing that. I also dont think you can pin him on an 8 on the flop just because he min bet into you. He probably had 9T which I think makes the most sense because he wants to see where he’s at, but then once you raise big he prob thinks you’re full of BS / he can draw to the gutshot. (EDIT: To clarify, this obviously is conflicting logic and a weird thought process but it's still what I suspect he is thinking). If he had an 8 I think he'd just check/call because its an easy decision and he doesnt really care what you bet.
Calling because your opponent is polarized and calling because you turned your hand face up are really dangerous reasons sometimes. What should really weight your decision more are his stats / tendencies …… for example when I play against some reg who checks somewhere in a hand and 'turns his hand face up' I might not bluff because I know that he's gonna want to call anyway after he made himself look weak. So when I do bet and they call, its a pretty huge mistake because I wouldn't be bluffing almost ever.
Aliases: drx975 (Stars/FTP), donkrx (Merge)
October 8, 2012
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I agree w you donk. After thinking about this hand on a walk last week the hand he had to have was T9. I knew he was a fish, and I knew not to give him too much credit in reading my hand. His tendencies weren't clear because it was pretty early, so he was basically a random fish. When I was in the hand I was so tempted to call but I said to myself, “everytime you call this bet he turns over a ten” so I folded. I followed my gut, which probably went through this entire process already. Thanks for the input!
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