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Merge 10K spot
EllDan
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February 9, 2014 - 9:27 am
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Hey guys, new to posting hands.  Tried to use the replayer but it could not read the data.  Here's a recap.

 

This is the Merge $33 nightly.  

Blinds 250 /125

Villian is UTG+1, sholves with 14 BB (I have 500 hands on villian.  Has rasied 14% from e.p. )

Hero is UTG +2, cards are 88, I have 33BB.

Two big stacks are left to act.  They have shown a lot of gamble in previous All-in's.

 

Based on the 14% PFR this becomes an equity flip.  If I were later to act I would snap sholve.  

Fold or Sholve?

Thanks for the feedback.

Chuck Blaze
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February 9, 2014 - 11:22 am
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22+ A9s+ A5s AJo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ JTs T9s. That is the optimal +cEV shoving range according to my push/fold chart.

 

We have some pretty good equity against that range. I imagine villain to be a little tighter than that and prolly folds certain hands like J10s, 910s, K9s, K10s, maybe even KJs depending on the villain.  22, 33 might fold too. I'm curious (aside from the stats) how we perceive villain and how he's acted in the past few orbits.These structures are pretty good so I can see passing up some hands in that optimal range and waiting for a better spot.

 

Given our early position it really sucks when someone wakes up with a hand. Its a tough spot. I think we are ahead of villains range but I might lean towards folding here because so many people have to act behind. 99 i think is the point where I shove. 88 is borderline. In game, I think I'm folding as I think we can find a better spot and its not worth taking the risk to our tourament life the times someone wakes up behind.

theginger45

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February 10, 2014 - 10:48 pm
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Chuck Blaze said:

22+ A9s+ A5s AJo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ JTs T9s. That is the optimal +cEV shoving range according to my push/fold chart.

 

We have some pretty good equity against that range. I imagine villain to be a little tighter than that and prolly folds certain hands like J10s, 910s, K9s, K10s, maybe even KJs depending on the villain.  22, 33 might fold too. I'm curious (aside from the stats) how we perceive villain and how he's acted in the past few orbits.These structures are pretty good so I can see passing up some hands in that optimal range and waiting for a better spot.

 

Given our early position it really sucks when someone wakes up with a hand. Its a tough spot. I think we are ahead of villains range but I might lean towards folding here because so many people have to act behind. 99 i think is the point where I shove. 88 is borderline. In game, I think I'm folding as I think we can find a better spot and its not worth taking the risk to our tourament life the times someone wakes up behind.

Your push/fold chart is terrible. Shoving hands like K9s or A5s for 14bb UTG+1 is most likely really bad.

Having said that, I think you're more or less correct that 88 or 99 is more or less the cutoff here for what we can get in. I think I would go with 88 and AQ+, but I don't hate folding here either.

jacobsharktank
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February 11, 2014 - 12:56 pm
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Chuck Blaze said:

22+ A9s+ A5s AJo+ K9s+ KQo QTs+ JTs T9s. That is the optimal +cEV shoving range according to my push/fold chart.

just wanted to point out that a push/fold chart isn't going to show you the optimal +cEV spot. it's likely trying to give you the minimum to be neutral ev given that others will call correctly. i think this is just a case of semantics, but just in case, yah charts are going to show what is +cEV but never a comment on other options or even itself. we all know shoving AA utg will show a profit at any size effective stack. hyperbole is the easiest way i can think to explain this. it's math and the answer is binary. it basically is just a check to see if something is -ev. the decision tree a chart shows something like this-
if cEV(shove) => 0, output “shove” else output “fold” nowhere does it comment/account for optimality. i've seen your posts so i think this might just be me beating a dead horse/showing semantics, but just in case i thought i'd point it out.
i don't use charts since i feel like i have a very good grasp of <20bb stacks, but def not into shoving hands like K9/KTs or T9s or A5-A8s etc. i sort of doubt that it's +cEV but i can't really calculate it all out myself. that said, i wouldn't take the lower ends of shove charts when other spots come up or you're talking about a bust out rate of like 30%+ (if everyone only calls 5% of hands, 5%x remaining players= % chance of being called by a crushing hand)
jacobsharktank
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February 11, 2014 - 12:58 pm
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sorry i prob need to add grunch to things like this haha. i didn't even realize it was a reshove spot. my comments all are related to being first to act, or rather they're just a comment on the nature of push/shove charts.

Chuck Blaze
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February 11, 2014 - 7:23 pm
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I may need to look into the chart I have. I'm never shoving that range from that position either but from what I've been told those are +cEV ranges you can shove and show a profit against a optimal calling range. simplely put, math wise you can do it.

 

obviously you have to take that and factor in numerous other elements and factors, so I'm not ever really shoving that range in practice. i like to use it as a guide and basepoint to look at ranges from and its helped.

 

now if that is math wise really wrong or off base i'd like to know.

jacobsharktank
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February 12, 2014 - 10:44 am
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It's not that it's off base or anything, it's just that the nature of the math in question isn't going to tell you anything outside of a binary answer really, and it says nothing about the times you're called and bust. (I'm moving past this hand and speaking generally about the idea of shove charts and hovering around 12-15bb in ep-mp since that's when these get questioned/used most often I feel. It's relatively easier to figure out/learn late position so this is where I think people stray/make mistakes. The shove chart says if it's profitable if you're called correctly yes. People generally call tighter than correctly, partly because generally people shove tighter than correctly (if more shoved correctly, the next adjustment would be people calling correctly). Anyway. Shove charts certainly will tell you if something is unexploitably profitable, but the more and more people you add that you must get through, the more you'll run into the group of hands that just won't ever fold. Shoving 22 from ep for 14bb MIGHT actually be profitable (I'm not looking at a chart honestly so I couldn't tell you), but when you're called by TT+/AQ+ you're talking about 5% x 8 people = 40% of the time you're called, which comes to 20% of the time you're a 4:1 dog, 20% of the time you're flipping, 60% of the time you get folds. It's much lower variance to simply ignore taking what is possibly a +cEV spot and taking what you get later. In a turbo, you have fewer opportunities and the math becomes more reliable. When fewer hands end up being played, slightly +cEV spots, even with bigger % chances of busto, end up adding up. I realized I strayed off topic, but this post has taken me a little bit to write. been going back and forth between running code and this haha. Anyway ya, you have the idea down really. You know to adjust from the charts. I guess just hammer in the point that what that math says is something is unexploitably profitable/neutral (usually the charts stop at the minimum hand or max blinds to be neutralEV), meaning you can flip your hand over and give the remaining opponents perfect information, and while theyll call more correctly, it won't ever cause your shove to fall to be negativeEV.

jacobsharktank
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February 12, 2014 - 10:46 am
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in my old comment on never shoving those hands and doubting they're +cEV just at cursory glance, what i meant was from ep. there are plenty of situations where i'm shoving those hands and that stack size lol. i just usually have fewer people waiting on me to act by then 😛

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