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Merge $109 5K FO: Call off stack with nut flush draw?

Carlos

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January 11, 2013 - 7:33 pm

Merge Network $5K Gtd No Limit Hold’em Tournament – t200.00/t400.00 Blinds + t40.00 – 7 players – View hand 2060482
TournamentPokerEdge.com Hand History Converter

Hero (CO): BB = 24.6, t9824
BTN: BB = 6.6, t2654
SB: BB = 20.3, t8105
BB: BB = 42.1, t16833
UTG: BB = 25.9, t10358
UTG+1: BB = 26.0, t10396
MP: BB = 13.1, t5231

Pre Flop: (t880) Hero is CO with A of hearts 5
3 folds, Hero raises to t844.00, 1 fold, SB calls t644, BB calls t444

Flop: (t2812) 7 of hearts 9 of spades K (3 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets t1644.00, SB folds, BB raises to t15949 all in, Hero ?

I feel like this is an obvious call but I just have to make sure. Villain is a reg who hasn’t gotten out of line. I feel like he is pretty strong, but I am getting break even odds. I dont know if tEV comes into play in this spot but I pretty much never fold here even though I know we want to be putting in the last bet with a draw. I just want to make sure it’s not a leak.

Turbulence

Falkirk, Scotland

Showing Marc Alioto How Its Done

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January 12, 2013 - 8:07 am

Against a villain range of 99, 77, AK, KQ, Th8h, 8h6h you have 40% equity. Its going to cost you an extra 8180 to win 20492, so:

(prob of winning*amount to win) – (prob of losing*amount to lose)

(40%*20492)-(60%*8180) = 3288 so this is a positive cEV situation to the tune of just over 8bbs.

So the maths says call. Only you know if the table dynamics and your edge or not over the table warrant risking your tourney life in this spot. If you fold you are left with 20bbs, if you call and win you have over 45bbs.

You might want to play with the range above but I very much doubt it will ever come out as negative cEV.

aka Prophead340 aka Prophead2000 aka Turbulence_1

PocketFives Profile: .....urbulence/

Carlos

Atlanta, Ga

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January 12, 2013 - 10:27 am

I would put him on 99,77,Th8h,97s,8h6h. I have 35% equity vs that range. I believe my pot odds is the amount I have to call divided by the amount I would have if I win so that's 7336/20772 = 35%.

Honestly, this is above my normal level and I would say there were only 2-3 losing players at the table. I dont think I had much of an edge at all. Guess I had to take this spot. Maybe spots like this determine who wins games vs who just cashes them. The guy who called me here with 97dd placed 2nd. He must have ravaged this table at the next blind level with that stack set up. The $109s are so elusive. It’s my turn this weekend though.

jjpregler

Grinding Micros

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January 12, 2013 - 1:41 pm

I think your range is too weighted to monsters only. You don't think he ever does this with Kx? In that case your A outs would be good as well. And you don't think he ever does this with flush draws? In that case your still ahead. The BB is playing the hand at 24 BBs effective.

I also think we can discount 99 and 77 slightly from his range, as this is an optimal spot to 3bet shove those preflop. He's shoving AK almost for sure preflop. So I will adjust the range distrubution by adding more flush draws, a small range of spazz off bottom pair, and removed 2 of 6 each of 77 and 99. For a more realistic 45% equity.

You have to call 7,296 to win 11,752. Your pot odds are 1.6:1. You need 38% to break even.

The formula is (19,048 * 45%) – 7296 = 1,275.6 positive cEV.

Carlos

Atlanta, Ga

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January 12, 2013 - 3:55 pm

He is good, so I dont see any naked Kx doing this that wouldnt shove pre. I have been very tight in this game to this point. I agree that 77, 99 would shove pre and that we can add one or two more flush draws like maybe QJs and JTs for sure. Guess we could throw in K9s too for another two pair hand. As far as the math, I got my numbers from universal replayer which is not very accurate with it's pot counting. When using the numbers from the HH, I get 38% too. I feel much better about it now. Thanks.

duggs

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January 13, 2013 - 7:43 pm

flop bet should be way smaller at that eff stack imo

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