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Mathematically right vs. avoiding huge variance plays
PAMtgMaster
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November 23, 2015 - 11:02 pm
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I recently played the WSOP Circuit (Planet Hollywood) Main Event and had this pivotal hand.

My stack is approximately $42k, the blinds are 400/800 with 100 ante 10 handed.  There are 3 limpers and I am in the big blind with A8 sooted.  I call as do not think I can push all out of the pot with a large raise and do not want to play this hand out of position.  I was recently moved to this table and have maybe played only 5 to 10 hands with this group.  It is about 6.5 hours into day 1B.  The flop comes J 10 7 with the J and 10 being hearts, my suit.  I have an over card, a nut flush draw and a gut-shot straight draw, what looks like 15 outs.  I bet 1800 into the 4200 pot.  There are 3 folds and then the SB raises to 7400.  The SB is a middle aged asian male who appears TAG like; seems like a solid player.  There is 13,400 now in the pot.  I can fold, call 5600 or raise.

Using the Pokercruncher and computing the villain’s range as very conservative; TT+,77, suited Kings, 98, other broadway cards with Js (top pair), I have about 48% equity and the pot is laying 2.4 which requires 29%.

I re-raised him allin for my last 39k and he called…with 89 for the nut straight.  This eliminated my A outs but I still have 9 flush outs and 3 straight outs to chop.  I did not improve and was out.

Upon rethinking it, I am thinking I should have folded and just found better spots as I was slowly chipping up.  Does it make sense to avoid high risk variance in a tourney even it the math seems to back the play?  Or is my math wrong and I should not have pushed.  I now think I should have folded and would have had 39k or just under 50BBs.  Maybe that is results oriented.  Any input would be greatly appreciated.

Polarized rage
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November 24, 2015 - 12:21 am
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IMO I don’t think this is ever a fold, that being said given the situation an A is probably never putting us ahead in the hand so I think we can remove 3 outs right there. The texture of the flop is usually hitting SB’s range pretty hard so he’s probably never folding to a shove in that spot (btw what was his stack size?). From a non-math based opinion at that point in the tournament  I don’t see a lot of value in shoving that spot when most of the time you’re going to be behind. Given that fact that you have position I think you’re best play is to flat that spot and reevaluate the turn, if you brick and he barrels the turn you can easily get away from the hand and still be left with a very playable stack. I agree that you could have waited for a better spot to get it in but I think folding is the wrong play. 

Foucault

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November 24, 2015 - 12:05 pm
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Yeah I don’t see why you’re treating shove or fold as your only options. It doesn’t take much fold equity to make shoving best, though, so I do think it’s a good default play and definitely better than folding. Tournaments are high variance, there’s no getting around that. You’re going to lose most of them no matter what you do. You have to give yourself a chance to win when things go your way, and that means not folding away gobs of equity for fear of busting out. “Chipping up slowly” is a form of running good, it’s not something you can assume will continue to happen if you fold.

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