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Marginal Situations - Calling 15-20bb shove
PrimoMM26
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October 11, 2010 - 9:28 pm
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Everyone runs into this situation and I'm curious of the risk/reward that is most practical.  For some reason my hand history disappeared so I'm going to make a simple example from a situation yesterday semi-deep in the FTP 750K.

Level: 1200/2400 300ante

Hero: 72K (30bbs)

Villian: 38K (16bbs)

 

Hero UTG+3 raises to 5,775 with Kspades Jspades

Villian (highjack) raises to 38,000 and is all-in

All other players fold

Pot: 50,075

To Call: 32,225

Pot Odds: 1.55 to 1

 

Hero's stack – win 116,300 (48bbs)

Hero's stack – lose 34,000 (14bbs)

 

Both players have been semi-active at the table – not too tight or aggressive.  Most likely behind and possibly dominated, is it correct to call here and if lose have a decent shove stack or do you lay this down and wait for a better spot?  What do you weigh more here, the pot odds, the percentage of your stack it is to call, or the amount of chips you will have if you win or lose? 

ATrainBoston
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October 11, 2010 - 9:39 pm
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This is a good question, and the kind of stiuation that I am not really sure of what to do in, and I bet a lot of other amatuer players feel the same.

 

So, I'm not sure, but for what it's worth, the way I go about this situation, is that I can see if we call, we are going to need to win about 40% of the time.  Theshover can have lots of hands like small or mid pairs, or hands like AQ which don't dominate us, and we will be competitive against those hands.  But of course he has a bunch of hands in his range that dominate us, and we won't win 40% of the time against those hands.  So overall, it's probably pretty close, and I would probably decide based on game flow, my read of the shover as either a nit or maniac would be very important, and whether I felt I had a good edge on the table.  To be honest most of the time I would fold unless I thought the shover had a very wide range. 

 

I'd love to hear from good players and have them explain what guidelines and thought process they use in these spots. 

Wein
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October 12, 2010 - 12:12 am
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it truly depends on if I know the player is extremely aggressive or not.  With people shoving very light these days, it might be more profitable than it was a year ago.  However, in a tournament as weak as the 750k, you definitely find a spot that is much less marginal.

ttwist

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October 12, 2010 - 11:50 am
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man this one is close. if he had 13 bb its ago if you had KQ it would be a go. so im going to have to say its a very read dependant spot but folding doesnt really change a thing in your tourney so i may lean towards fold but if your confident in your read on the player go with that.

PrimoMM26
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October 12, 2010 - 8:05 pm
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I ended up folding this time.  The opponent was a profitable reg and since I was in EP I gave him credit for a dominating hand and decided to wait for a better spot since I thought at best I was racing 88-1010 (never played with him deep in a tourney).  A few minutes later I had a similiar situation with A10 off and raised in mid position and the bb instantly shoved.  This time it more like I had 22bbs and he had 15 so I called and he had JJ and held.  That crippled me and I shoved my stack with KJ next hand and was reshoved by A9 and 88 and I flopped the K and held and went right back to my 70k stack again.  I ended up 3bet shoving the big stack with AQ and lost a race against 10s to end the tourney.

 

Thanks for your thoughts.

Hagbard Celine
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October 13, 2010 - 11:37 am
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i would try to have a plan for what to do against different players before i open. like here, if i plan to raise/fold then i like minraising as it gives us worse odds+we lose less. i doubt minraising changes his range in any significant way.

 

as for the hand, it's a pretty simple math problem and whether to call or not is entirely dependant upon what villain's range is to shove.

 

in general, deep in the 750K, i'd side with wein and probably raise/fold here and look for better edges. people will play really tight deep in these majors and unless you have a really bad table you can often chip up pretty easily just stealing pots PF.

Wein
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October 14, 2010 - 5:06 pm
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I agree with Hagbard in that when opening any hand, you should see what is left to act in front of you and have a plan for how you're going to play against each person before you decide whether to open something.

FkCoolers
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October 14, 2010 - 5:16 pm
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Wein said:

I agree with Hagbard in that when opening any hand, you should see what is left to act in front of you and have a plan for how you're going to play against each person before you decide whether to open something.


 +1 to this great reply. In bigdog's videos you always hear him say who he wll call if they shove and who he will fold to. In a lot of Wein's videos I have heard him count the number of re-shove stacks left to act behind him when he is thinking of opening a marginal type of hands like KJs.

Maybe I'm too nitty but at a 9 handed table KJs is near the bottom of my opening range so if I have a few re-shove stacks behind me and only30 bb's I am probably just folding pre since I will not be calling 15-20 bb shoves with it.

PrimoMM26
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October 16, 2010 - 3:11 am
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Thanks for everyones input.  The reason I raised at this point was because many of the players had a similiar stack as mine with 2 reshove stacks behind.  There was one of chip leaders 2 seats to my right (amost 300k) that was finally not in a pot and i had not played a hand in almost 2 orbits so i thought it was good time to open and either steal or see a favorable flop and go with it.

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