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Marginal showdown value vs over bet shove
ZakLawson
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August 16, 2014 - 9:13 pm
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Hi, I just wanted some feedback on what you guys would do in this spot, it was quite late on in tourney, but not yet at the bubble.

Ok, so I had less than 50 hands on this villain, and he was playing 10/8/0.

(sorry, hand history messed up so will have to do manually)

 

$5.50 NL Hold'em [2R1A], $8K Gtd – Level XII  (150/300) 
Hand uploaded on August 16 2014, 19:15 ET

 

Hero is dealt Aheart10heart

 

Villain is UTG with 15,746 and raises to 900

Folded to hero on button with 25,342 – SB has 7020, BB has 29,911

Hero calls 900

Both blinds fold.

Flop: (2610) 6club4spade10diamond

Villain bets 1200. Hero calls 1200.

Turn (5010) Qheart

Villain bets 2100. Hero calls 2100.

River (9210) Qclub

Villain goes all in for 11546

 

Hero?

 

I know what the villain had and will post

Foucault

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August 17, 2014 - 9:21 am
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Against a player with such nitty stats I’d just fold pre. Though with antes and passive/weak blinds a call can’t be too bad. I call down post-flop though, wouldn’t expect a nit to jam AA for value so either he holds both of the case Ts, he ran out trips with AQ/KQ, or he’s making a desperation bluff with AK/AJ.

pckrrr
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August 21, 2014 - 12:28 am
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Vs a nit and a 3x UTG open easy ( Lol sample) fold pre. As played I don't think we beat villains range on the turn, +I doubt villain would ever go to showdown ( checks river with worse), so I would fold the turn.

ZakLawson
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August 21, 2014 - 4:06 am
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I folded river and showed, he showed AdiamondKdiamond

Foucault

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August 21, 2014 - 8:18 am
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ZakLawson said:

I folded river and showed, he showed AdiamondKdiamond

Why did you show?

ltcolumbo
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August 21, 2014 - 11:35 am
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Not to steer too far from what I think is a perfect analysis by Foucault, I often see the pattern where villians have more bluffs than value in their triple barrel hands.  This gets additional attention when the turn or river would tend to improve hero's hand and villian continues with this line.  In this case, the second Queen would cause villian to seriously consider check-call or thin value bet the river, not shove.

You have ~$16.5k behind(?) when the shove comes, so you could live to fight another day and assume that nitty guy had AQ, and if it was LIVE poker, I may make a mistake(?) and fold here.  But online, where I see more of this, I want to call.

NeverAA
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August 21, 2014 - 12:21 pm
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I have seen a lot of very nitty guys taking that line. I would have seen the flop and folded to aggression as long as I didnt pick up any stronger draws.

I think it kind of depends on the guy, too. I know some guys with those stats and they only play AA, KK, QQ. They dont even bother AK.

However, the interesting thing here is that he is overbet shoving. If it was around pot size, I would have been more cautious. Here though, it depends on the player.

Saying that, I would still fold. It is not worth it. You will be behind more often than you are ahead against that kind of weak nitty player.

Foucault

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August 22, 2014 - 2:39 pm
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You don’t need to be ahead more often than not to call.

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