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December 17, 2019
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hi,
again a spot with marginal hand.
Hero A
3 MP open 2,2bb, 50bb eff
BB 50bb calls
A
J
4
(6b) – Check, check
8– BB bet 66%, Hero called
Q– BB bet 66%, Hero ?
In game I was thinking I had marginal Hand with SDvalue so I try to go to SD- xback flop.
The same thinking on turn/river so call/call.
Off table analysis
- hand category: marginal hand,
- 1-1.5, max 2 streets of value
- Hand isn’t vulnerable so we can backload it value (x/b/b, b/x/b)
- Turn: easy call but we are now in bluff-catch mode cos we dont beat any Villains value.
- Bluffs: Flush Draws, straight draws: T9, QT, gut-shots: KT, T7, 56, 57, 53, 52
- River value: ~A9+, obv draws from turn that hits T9/KT (QT has SDv so should check).
- River bluffs: miss FD, miss SD(T7,56,57,53,52)
Bluff-catch check list
- Blocking value ? Yes we block Ax value bets (that said some draws hits that we don’t block)
- Unblock bluffs? Yes we don’t block FD, and we only block 53 (where Villain could only have suited 53), having 5 in our hand will be much worse (that said most Villains may not find that many bluffs with those on the turn and river).
Dunno if Ax is that high up in my range that I dont need to think a lot in game to make river call, or I should consider other things (like I will have other hands with better blokers AT/JT etc).
July 24, 2018
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I think given we are aiming for 2 streets, one of those streets should be the flop. This board favors your range, you should likely be betting your range here.
On the turn, nothing but calling makes sense. There are a ton of draws, and you have an underrepresented hand with SD value.
The river bothers me a little bit; especially Villain’s sizing. It looks like it is aimed exactly at weak Ax that it wants a call from. Of course this is Villain dependent; you are in exploit territory here; against a bluffy Villain we have an easy call; against a more balanced Villain, I’d tend to throw this away.
December 17, 2019
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Hi.
I’m not sure it’s a range bet. That said we can use different strategies ofc.
Like we can CB range with small size or CB bigger size (lower frequency) + Have a checking range (or even use 2 sizings which will be the hardest so executed).
I game I thought it was more big size/ lower frequency spot. So hands like KK/QQ/TT/J9/weak Ax will prefer a Xback.
December 17, 2019
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3for3,
1. I know it’s very player dependent but what’s your play vs unknown Villain?
2. Also you said that you will Cb range here.
How you will play this A3s after Cbet ?
3. If you decide to XB turn , what’s your play vs river 66% bet?
4. After Cb range how you play other marginal hands like KK, J9, TT etc?
January 4, 2020
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I’m with 3for3 in that this is a flop where we have a huge range advantage vs villain and we should be Cbetting basically 100% with all our range.
I know that going through some of these sports with PIO, on these dry A-high boards, it likes to Cbet large. I give it the options of Cbetting 30%, 70% or checking and it Cbets 70% with the vast majority of its range.
As played, this river is just a guessing game as far as I’m concerned and highly villain dependent. From a GTO perspective I guess you have to call as you’re pretty close to the top of your range but then again you should basically never be checking this flop from a GTO point of view.
July 24, 2018
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Sun:
My plan is to call a check raise; if Villain x/c flop, then I check back turn, and value bet blank runouts. Most Villains will bet 2P plus on a fairly safe runout, so I don’t really need to worry about QJ on the given runout.
The most overused line in poker (at the stakes I play) is Cbet in position, check back turn and give up to a river bet. I am super conscious of that, so I want to have hands that bet flop, check turn, and can call the river. This seems like a good candidate for that.
Hands that are worse than Ax are probably folding most runouts, when faced with a 2/3 pot bet. I think I might need to call hands that can beat a Jack, but that particular decision is too player dependent.
December 17, 2019
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Sure it’s Villain dependent but we should have some basic game plan vs unknown. Also if we know something about our Villain why we wanna Cbet range and not some more exploit strategy vs specific Villain?
@Spade42 why it’s a guessing game on the river ? How it’s different to Cb range Xback turn and facing a river bet ?
Also how you will play those mid hands like KK/J9/A3/TT after Cbet range?
July 24, 2018
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If I cbet, then check back river, I’d probably plan to call the river. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this call is a mix at equilibrium, which is why it should be player dependent. Against a nit, it is an easy fold; against a strong player it is a call.
December 17, 2019
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OK, but if you wanna be exploit vs different player profile why not start with exploit it by Cbetting strategy that isnt GTO in the first place?
Like If we are vs NIT mayby its higher EV to check back flop?
Also I run this in PIO in in fact it like to CB with high freq (Xback ~6% in both sims, 1st with tree sizings 33%/50%/75% and 2nd with two sizings 33%/75%). But it splits sizings and prefer the bigger sizing. I guess if we lock IP to bet 100% with bigger sizing it may loose some EV there.
Hands like A3s is mix in all sizings with small % of checks, but lets say KK its prefere smallers sizings and higher check %.
July 24, 2018
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When PIO gives us 6% checkback, it is going to be much easier to implement a 100% betting frequency than to try to balance that 6%. I’d assume that 6% is small pieces of a lot of hands. I’d also assume that our ev loss of never checking will be very close to zero. If I do develop a checking range it will be against a Villain who will double barrel bluff turn/river too much.
A3 beats the same hands that KK beats, but it blocks Villains Ax, while KK unblocks it (assuming Villain 3! AK preflop).
July 24, 2018
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I gave hero 3 bet sizes; check/33%/66%; our ev with a pot size of 5.4BB was 4.311BB
I forced hero bet range with 50% pot, our ev dropped to 4.287BB; with 2/3 pot it was 4.3BB. You just aren’t losing that much by using one bet size, especially if it is a good size.
December 17, 2019
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True, that if we compare different setups that in most cases the EV lost will be small.
That said we don’t need to always play like GTO bot suggest. We dont know how those strategies are compare to some more exploitable ones ( even vs unknown opponent, we still have some more generic reads vs population).
So CB range here maybe ok but may not be maxEV.
July 24, 2018
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I think CBetting range is the exploit. Check out how BB is supposed to respond. They are check raising fairly frequently with hands like 53s and K4s with BDFD.
No one in my player pool is doing that.
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