ok i think about it some days now… is it wise to make a deal on ft? on 3 left? on heads up? and to be more specific i want to put some case study to see if there is a thought…
1. lest assume you play a big tourney (not massive) but the 1st place is around the size of your bankroll…. and you feel you have advantage over your opponet on heads up and you even have a chip lead of 2:1… so u make a deal there? poketing lets say the money of the 2nd+ 2/3 of the difference … or you battle it out… i note that in most big tourneys like that 2nd and 1st place have a significat difference… to be more clear 1st pays 10k second pays 6k… 8,6k for u and 7,3k for the other guy or go for the 10k?
2. you are 3 handed all same chips… with an agro medium skilled player and a solid medium skill… u feel u have +ev on both of them but NOT that you have some great reads to exploite them… payouts 10k 6,5k 4,8k do u take the 7,1?
i dont say a scenario that you have less chips cuz i dont feel u really want a deal there… or maybe i am wronge?
sorry for my bad english 🙂
if the money at stake is significant to me, then i usually always chop. i think that in MTTs, where often most of your yearly earn will be coming from one or two giant scores, that when in those situations if you can lock up equity without having to gamble for it then you should.
in smaller tourneys i rarely chop.
in your examples i'd take the deal in both (assuming that they are ICM/chip chop numbers and i can't negotiate a better deal for myself).
I almost always chop for the same reason hagbard stated. I'd rather reduce my variance as much as possible and lock up a score. While my edge in heads up poker is significant against the random player, I probably still only take down that tournament 55-60% of the time because anyone can win on any given day in poker. That is why we love and hate this game 🙂
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