March 29, 2016
So the good news is that I qualified to my very first Sunday Warm-Up for just $27.
The bad news is that I busted in 20 hands. Here is a hand where I lost most of my stack.
Blinds 500/1000/125
Hero UTG+1 50 000 [50BB]
Villain UTG+3 95 000 [95BB]
Info about Villain – he is a reg, but not super successful. Didn’t play against him yet.
Hero has 6h8h, opens to 2270. Villain raises to 5540. Other players folds, Hero calls.
I felt like I have good pot odds and I am deep enough to make a call and see the flop.
Flop 2h 10d 3d (pot 13580)
Hero checks, villain checks.
Turn Jh
Hero bets 7605. Villain calls.
At this point I felt like betting the turn was a good idea. A – I could see where I am at, and B – the plan was to bluff him off his AK,AQ by betting the turn & river.
River 6c (pot 28790, hero has 36921 behind)
Hero calls, villain bet 13243. Hero?
At this point I think hero would check-raise all his monster hands on the turn. With 2 flush draws & straight draws on the board, IMO he should check-raise 100% of QQ+, AJ.
He could check-call turn with flush draws, straight draws(KQ,AQ,AK), lower pairs, QJ, KJ. I exclude T from his range because he didn’t bet the flop.
Given that I excluded monsters from his range and there are tons of missed draws, even though I beat pretty much no value hands, I decided to call.
Villain showed AJo and won the pot.
July 24, 2017
I think his 3bet range could look something like this – 55+,A8s+,A5s,KTs+,QJs,ATo+,KJo+,QJo
And his turn calling range narrows it down to – AJs+, A9s-A8s, A5s, KJs+, QJs, AJo+, KJo+, QJo
against this range you have 62% equity, a lot of flushdraws miss, any AK,AQ,KQ hands miss as well, so we only really lose to Jx hands. When villain decides to fire a river bet, it looks like a value bet with Jx hand, but it can very well be a bluff. If villain understands ranges then you dont hit this board very well with your opening/calling range as well, so a bluff is very possible.
TPE Pro
December 6, 2012
Fold pre-flop. This isn’t a good hand to open UTG+1. Once you get 3-bet, you should call getting such a good price. It’s nothing to do with how deep you are, though. In fact, being OOP means more stack depth is generally bad for you. The shallower you are, the better this call would be. It’s still a call, though.
I like betting turn, but I would go a lot bigger. When you offer Villain 3:1, you’re probably getting peeled by AK/AQ and underpairs.
River I think you should call, as labrocis said a lot of draws missed. You block some of those, but given that he’s an EP three-better I don’t think he would have much 8h in his bluffing range anyway.
March 29, 2016
Thanks guys for your feedback.
During the hand in my analysis, I thought that V should not have too many Jx in his hand. I didn’t see him raising pre with KJ or lower. I was pretty sure V would check-raise his AJ on the turn.
Was it a mistake by the V not to check-raise his AJ on the turn with two flush draws and straight draw on the board?
February 8, 2017
kardi31 said
I was pretty sure V would check-raise his AJ on the turn… Was it a mistake by the V not to check-raise his AJ on the turn with two flush draws and straight draw on the board?
I think it would be a pretty big mistake to raise AJ on the turn. Although villain beats many of your value bets and benefits from folding out your draws, almost the entire range that continues vs a raise has AJ in bad shape or is drawing to a lot of equity. Villain may win the pot more often by raising, but he’s losing WAY too often when stacks get in the middle. By flatting, villain wins more from hands that will bluff the river, keeps weaker made hands in your range, and loses less chips against your monster hands. Seems like a pretty good trade-off for occasionally getting outdrawn.
kardi31 said
I didn’t see him raising pre with KJ or lower.
KJs,QJs and JTs seem reasonable for villain to 3-bet. MP v UTG+1 I think they should mostly be 3-bet or folded at 50bb effective. I don’t think all Tx will bet the flop, I would often check-back QT/JTs in these positions after 3-betting. I often choose to pot control this type of hand, and value getting closer to showdown a lot more than protecting against draws.
As you move up in stakes you will find that most good players become a lot less concerned about protection. Most will fast-play their big hands and draws/air, while taking a more conservative approach with a lot of marginal top pair hands. Kind of the opposite of what you see at lower stakes, which is one of the many reasons that jumping up to much larger stakes is very difficult.
EDIT: Don’t be too disappointed by the quick exit in this tourney. You did a great job to qualify such a big tourney for only $27 and, by busting so quickly, you may have accomplished something much more valuable than min-cashing or a similar score. There comes a time in every winning player’s journey through poker that they (hopefully) have a rude awakening, when they realize that they are the fish at buy-ins much higher than what they normally play. I’ve lost >300 * $27 to learn this lesson, and I still forget it from time to time when my ego gets in the way.
March 29, 2016
Thanks DDD for your response. That’s something I completely wasn’t aware of. Your analysis brings some very interesting stuff I would have to learn in near future (in case I qualify again:-D). Appreciate that.
I am more disappointed busting this tournament by showing 20BB AQ vs KJ and getting 3-outed on the river. This hand is fine IMO as I played according to my knowledge/what I’ve learned, made an analysis and you just live with the results. With the feedback of all of you, I will adjust in future. Thanks again.
TPE Pro
August 25, 2012
I think Andrew covered it. Fold pre, bet bigger turn, call river.
Don’t be disappointed about busting – you didn’t get 3-outed, you lost a 60/40 (assuming you did get it in preflop). You have no control over results, and representing it to yourself mentally as getting 3-outed is just going to make you feel hard done by in a spot where you really weren’t.
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