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Home Forum MTT Poker Strategy Low Stakes Live Shove/Fold Theory

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Low Stakes Live Shove/Fold Theory

TheDukeVA

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November 12, 2014 - 12:59 pm

Question about the less than 20 BB shove scenarios in low stakes games.
Does it make sense to use the ICMIZER calulations or the Jennifear push/fold chart in these situations?

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AiRCAFDKL6fIdHE0QWt5elZMUkU4YzVrSlBVZk5EMFE&hl=en_US#gid=3

So here is a real scenario:
5th 20 minute level, Blinds 400/800 starting stack of 12,000, no one has been eliminated.
So the Average stack size is 15 BB.
In this situation, if you have 20 BB for a stack size of 16,000, you are well over the average chip count. The Jennifear shove/fold chart has you shoving in the cutoff with an unopened pot with Q10s. Why?
Is that the right mathematical/logical +EV play in a situation where you are above average in chips?
The Chart also has you shoving with AA, which also seems wrong.
So in a low stakes live Tournament, less than $200 buy-in (which for those who don’t play live very often, has less skilled players on average than a $2.00-$5.00 online MTT) and a table where no one is calculating odds, hEV, or has ever heard of ICM, and making 3 BB bets after the flop, regardless of pot size, still carries weight, should the ICMIZER and Jennifear charts still apply?
Thanks for helping me understand.
TheDukeVA

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November 12, 2014 - 4:36 pm

I'm not familiar with that chart specifically, so I can't speak to its accuracy. The general idea of guides like these, however, is to give you a list of hands for which shoving is unexploitable. In other words, your opponents simply won't be dealt hands better than these often enough to make your shove unprofitable given what you risk and what you stand to win. It doesn't follow from that that shoving is necessarily the best way of playing the hand, just that it would be better than folding.

It's possible that your opponents may mistakes that cause other plays to be even more +EV. To take an extreme example, against opponents who only play AA, min-raise-folding KK would be better than shoving it.

So yes, if your opponents are folding too often to min-raises and/or continuation bets, then it's possible that plays other than shoving are best, especially if you can fold to a shove. Note that even against tight players this is rarely the case if the shove offers you 2:1 odds on a call.

TheDukeVA

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November 13, 2014 - 11:54 am

Thanks Andrew

lapp3r30

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November 14, 2014 - 2:47 am

Keep in mind these %s assume others are gonna call optimally. GTO shove ranges basically.

DannyN13

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November 14, 2014 - 3:45 am

Yeah shoving is profitable but not necssarily the optimal play. Live, tighten your shoving ranges as well, since structures are usually much better along with your reads.

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