March 8, 2013
Preflop: this raise sizing seems a bit small for pre-ante according to most regs, but if you have a reason, go for it.
Flop: His large donkbet makes me think he would do this with value hands that are afraid of the flush plus some number of bluffs. I doubt most players would do this with sets, plus QQ and JJ probably three-bet preflop. I think he's more likely to check/call with a Q or a J unless he has AQ, but that again might three-bet pre, so I would put him only QJ, some chance of AQ or 66, and some bluffs. Whichdrawing hands he chooses to donkbet vs. check/call, check/raise, or check/fold is hard to say given you have no reads. Lower two-pairs are possible as well, though it would be pretty unlikely for him to call preflop. With K,Q, and J of diamonds accounted for he doesn't have a lot of flush draws, and the most of the ones he does have either have ace outs of straight outs (T9,98), so you aren't far ahead. I still probably call a bet here as I'm definitely in the toppish part of my range, but I would be very wary here.
Turn: This enormous bet allows us to fold a lot of my range. I think our calling range should be pair/flush draws, QJ, and 66. I think we can shove for value with JJ and QQ, and bluff-shove with straight+flush draws. I like folding KQ no flush draw here.
River: As played, I would definitely fold the river. KQ has got to be the bottom of your turn calling range, right? You aren't calling with QT are you? This is a pot-sized shove and it's optimal to fold about half our range here.
Results: Is this correct? Your post title says you lost, but the HH shows him with KhTh for a busted draw. I will assume the HH is correct.
I'm a bit surprised to see him show up with a hand that wasn't a flush draw on the flop, but an open-ender with a backdoor flush draw is a decent semi-bluffing hand. I think it's probably better as a check/call hand to give him some excellent bluff check-raises on the turn if a heart comes. I think he played the turn and river perfectly.
Honestly think you played it perfect. We can assume his range is usually K10, 109, Flush draw or a weak Q on the flop maybe some Jxs as well. We don’t exactly want to blow him off his hand or play for stacks on the flop so call is perfect. Again you are getting max value by just calling the turn because you remove his river bluffs if it comes a brick by raising. Pretty easy call on river and I think he value bets the top of his range rather than shoving since all draws missed. NH!
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