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Live Tourney 15 Left / 8 Paid, Big Stack v relative Big Stack, ICM?
mhonan981
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April 29, 2015 - 11:11 am
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$125 Live Tournament w/ about 80 runners and 8 paid. Payout structure is top heavy with 1st getting almost 40% of the prize pool, 2nd 20%, 3rd 10%, 4th-8th having very small pay jumps.

 

Down to 2 tables (15 left) and my table is playing noticeably tighter approaching the FT bubble. Villian moved to table about 3 orbits prior and only saw him play 2 hands – called a raise and folded to a C-bet and a raise pre and it folded around. We were the 2 biggest stacks at the table (everyone else 8-12 BB) and both top 5 in chips. I had been opening a lot of pots and getting little resistance in the last few orbits and definitely seen as “this annoying guy who keeps raising my BB”.

 

4k/8k/500 ante (8 handed)

BB – 75k (very tight older woman who frequently folded her BB with as little as 5 BB left)

Hero (CO) – 235k

Villain (BTN) – 160k

Action folds to me and I raise to 17k w/ 4h5h (felt the blinds were still overly tight)

Villain insta 3-bets to 36k, both blinds fold (I'm putting him on a very tight range given his play so far, that I'm the big stack at the table, and people's general aversion to 3-betting w/o big hands in these types of tournaments)

I call getting nearly 4:1 and having a pretty good idea where I'm at in the hand and think I will have a pretty clear decison on the flop. Thoughts here?

Flop: 4c6d7h (88k in the pot), I check and he shoves his remaining 124k (pretty convinced he's holding a big overpair). 212k in the middle, I'm now getting 1.7:1. Any 4, 5, 3, or 8 (13 outs) + a backdoor flush draw, I'm estimating my equity is close to 50% making this a pretty clear call from a pot odds perspective. 

My question is this a clear call in this spot against what I think is JJ+? 

Given: 7 left till $, 6 from FT, lots of very small stacks remaining, I'd have less than 10bb if I call and lose, chip leader if I win, still a workable stack if I fold, feel I have a skill edge on the table, and I couldn't have asked for a better flop so if I don't call here then no sense calling his 3bet preflop?

 

The top heavy payout structure is also on my mind as well as hearing Andrew Brokos in my head saying “my pet peeve is when people say they can wait for a better spot…”

 

Thanks for your thoughts!

Foucault

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April 29, 2015 - 12:25 pm
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Easy call, I don't think ICM is much of a factor here. You're still a ways from the money (might not seem that way but only 2/3 of remaining players will be paid) and it's a top heavy structure. Also this isn't a small edge, you're getting 1.7:1 in a spot where you break even at 1:1.

mhonan981
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April 29, 2015 - 1:06 pm
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Thanks Andrew.

 

How do you feel about the preflop open and flatting Villain's 3B? I opened because I had seen the BB be overly tight under 10 bigs, but not sure if this is an open against someone who's recognizing I could be light here and knows they have a reshove stack. As for the 3B pre, seemed close to breakeven if I put him on big pairs and AK.

 

I didn't think w/ 15 left this had any ICM implications, but with only a general understanding of the concept, wanted to make sure I wasn't misinterpreting this spot.

Foucault

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April 30, 2015 - 11:09 am
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If BB is excessively tight and BTN won't 3bet much, both of which sound like reasonable assumptions), I like opening this. And yes, it's a clear call vs the 3bet.

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