Live Tourney: $400 buy-in, Deep Stack – 20k starting chips – 30min blinds
Level 9: 400-800, 100 Ante
Stack: 24k Avr Stack: 30k 140/210 players remaining
Hero: Button: As-Js
Villian:SB: Tc-9c
Stack: ~60k
Table tight aggressive, villian a known established player at the casino
Preflop: MP limp 800, Hero raises 2500, Villian calls 2500
Flop: Ts – 4c – 3s, Hero bets 3500, Villian calls
Turn: 2c, Hero bets: 6000, Villian calls
River: 8d, Hero checks, villian checks and wins with pair of T's
Approach:
The villian with a big stack was seeing flops with small pairs and suited connectors
Preflop I put him on a wide range Any Pair, Any Big A, Any suited A, KQ s,suited connector 8,9 +
Flop: I like my flush draw, overs, and backdoor straight, when he calls I know he hit a piece of the flop, maybe AT, KQ, set, or flush draw. If he hit a set I have 9 outs, if top pr I have 15 outs.
I bet the 3500 to try and control the pot. Is this my critical error? The pot had 8000 chips. I think I made the critical error.
With only 20k chips left, was is my best option
1) Bet 3500 (the play I made)
2) Ship it (after my analysis, I like this option better)
3) Check/Call
4) Check/Fold
If you agree that I made the correct play with the post flop bet, what do you think of the Turn bet?
Same options as above 1,2,3, or 4?
If you agree that I made the correct play on the river (bet 6000), what do you think of the River check?
.
October 6, 2010
i reckon if you double barrel here, you have to empty the clip on the river, the board doesnt change, and your only option is to rep an overpair and try and get villain to fold.
in a hand such as this, i would cbet and give up if called, or i would fire 3 barrels, firing 2 and then giving up is the worst option imo
Im ok with the PF raise since there is a limper before you
FLOP: I like the CBet with all your draws. I dont see what a larger bet achieves here, he will call you if he barely hits so your size is fine
TURN: With the added Str8 draw I would check and be ready to call a bet to see the river. I'd hate to be blown off of the pot when I have 9 flush outs, possibly 6 outs from pairing up and 4 outs from the wheel. of course some of these are “dirty outs”
RIVER: Check fold if I missed.
Shoving on the flop is also an option Based on a range similar to what you provided you are more than 60% to win, plus the fold equity its definitely +EV:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 62.491% 60.83% 01.66% 128277 3498.00 { AsJs }
Hand 1: 37.509% 35.85% 01.66% 75597 3498.00 { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 97s+, 87s, ATo+, KJo+, QJo, JTo, T9o }
It comes down to if you feel he will stack off or at least pay you off if you hit, and also how often he calls you if you shove. I would probably take the low variance option.
Interesting hand, and a spot I find you can get into often live. After thinking about it a bit more, Shoving seems to be the best option, you represent a top pair or a draw and from Villain's standpoint he knows even with one pair that he is a dog to this range, his best case is that you have something like As9s and still he is only 55% there. So I expect him to fold a LOT, especially since he is a capable player and believes he has an edge over the field…….one problem though…..he has a 60K Stack and might be more willing to gamble thant if he had 30K or so. so again I think there is a lost you can still do if you miss and fold with 20-25 bbs. so I go back to CBettting flop, check calling turn, check folding river.
I def do not shove the flop here. I think u played the hand fine up until the turn — problem here i think is that you had no plan once you fired the turn bet — had you already thought about what you were going to do on the river if u missed?
2 options on the turn, continue your strong line and double barrel with a plan to shove the river if you miss [you have about 12k left to shove ] or check the turn and take the free card and if miss give up
The worse option was to fire the turn and give up the river imo.
Thanks to Benny, Isaac, and John for your input, all good comments.
My plan was to fire one barrel on the flop then check/call small bets or check/fold a big bet. When the wheel draw became available on the turn it clouded my thinking.
The shove on the flop when I start with over 20BB is not in my repertoire .
So everyone agrees I really screwed the pooch on the turn.
FWIW, with 10BB left I pushed in cutoff with T-9 suited and the villian woke up with K-K and got the rest of my chips anyway, lol.
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