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Live tournament JJ in BB, with 9BB
navinbits
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January 10, 2016 - 7:38 pm
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So, this is my bust out hand from a big live tournament with 35k up top. There will be 27 ITM and currently, there are 46 remaining. 

My villains this hand: 

V1: Extremely ABC. 70 yr old regular. Have seen him go all in 4 times, worst hand being AK. Doesn’t mind showing his hand when people fold either! I once raised with AsQs from EP and he shoved on me. I put him on a strong range and open-folded AQ much to the surprise of others on the table, but he showed AA.

V2: Loose-aggressive. Doesnt mind seeing the flop if he gets enough odds. Folds a lot to a C-bet, and is usually raising big with big hands.

Blinds: 1000-2000-300; Chip average is 50k

10 handed table.
Hero (BB) (18k): JspadeJclub
V1 (UTG+1) (52k): Raise to 6000
V2 (CO) (50k): Calls 6000
Hero: All-in for 18k; V1 and V2 call. 
Board runs out all low cards till turn and A on river. V1 had AQ.

When V1 raised to 6k, I put him on AJ+, TT+. He is way too tight to raise with worse.. V2’s call doesnt scare me. If he has a big hand, he will most definitely re-raise it. Now, I am not playing this tournament to min-cash. Hence, I shoved to get max value when I have just 9BB. 

In hindsight, I felt that I could have just called 4k more to see the flop, and shoved if flop had no A. By doing this, the risk is 4k, and I am totally confident that the villains will fold if they didn’t make their hand. I will also be the button soon enough and can pick my spot to shove if I were to lose this 4k. I am sure that on a 665 flop, my donk shove will get people away and I will boost my stack by ~15k. Also, by shoving from BB, I am giving V1 awesome odds to call, if he has a hand like AK/AQ. He has to call 11k to win 25k, not considering V2’s action(If V2 were strong, we would have heard from him earlier). 

What would you guys do here? In this specific spot, is shoving standard based on my read? 

florianm1
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January 11, 2016 - 5:59 am
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hey,

i think this is a clear case of results oriented thinking.

There is more than half your stack already in the middle, you are holding a premium hand and are likely to be called by worse in at least one if not two spots you dont want to ask for more.

I looked at it quickly in CREV and a shove is +7K. As it is hard to quantify how much of your equity you wil lretain postflop multi way i did not analyze that.

Your idea with shoving on non Ahigh is flawed in two ways. First, what if there is a flop A54, you check, OR checks, CO bets with 76s and you both fold? or if its Q32, you check R betsy CO folds, you jam and OR calls with AQ.

 

Further it seems to me you are considering this play because of potential ICM implications as you state 46 left and 27 are payed.

I see this a lot with live player and less experienced player that they are cocerned about the bubble approaching when it is relatively close in absolute numbers but still effectively far away.

i look at it from the point that 27 are paid and 46 are left. so that means 58% of the remaining field get paid or the other way around another 42% of the field need to bust. Would you ever talking about this when in an online mtt where you are 2000people left and 1100 get paid?

Hope this helps.

Cheers

kmid
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January 11, 2016 - 8:09 am
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I’m not sure what your bet on the non ace flop would be achieving, it seems like your saying you’d like to get them to fold worse on a non A flop. I think it’s worth asking yourself before betting if you are bluffing (getting better to fold) or value betting (getting worse to call), if you are not doing either of these things betting is likely a bad idea. I think you’ve overestimated the likelihood of getting folds on the flop on safe boards anyway. You’ll be shoving 12k into 21k from a shortstack, this is not going to look strong and they should be calling with any piece of the board. I find it hard to find any merit in the plan of calling preflop.

V1s range of only AJ TT+ seems strange, is he raising AJo but limping or folding hands such 99, KQs, A10s.
 

Even with the range you’ve given V1 this is still a shove, if V1 calls with his Ax that’s fine. You can take the desperately needed chance to more than double up. It’s likely if V1 has Ax hands the action will likely cause V2 to fold and you’ll be flipping with overlay, which is a great spot to be in.

P-aire 146
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January 11, 2016 - 10:00 am
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If you are not willing to go with JJ w/ 9bb’s left……………….  c’mon man.  ALL IN !!!

You are definitely ahead of V2.  Could V1 have you beat, yes, but maybe you are ahead.

SHIP IT and let the poker gods decide.

Foucault

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January 11, 2016 - 10:17 am
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Lots of good responses here already, so I’ll just add that I’m not a fan of “open-folded AQ”. Don’t show your opponents your cards or tell them how you play. It is far more likely to hurt you than help you.

navinbits
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January 11, 2016 - 1:44 pm
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florianm1 said

Your idea with shoving on non Ahigh is flawed in two ways. First, what if there is a flop A54, you check, OR checks, CO bets with 76s and you both fold? or if its Q32, you check R betsy CO folds, you jam and OR calls with AQ.

Further it seems to me you are considering this play because of potential ICM implications as you state 46 left and 27 are payed.

Would you ever talking about this when in an online mtt where you are 2000people left and 1100 get paid?

Hope this helps.

Cheers

I agree with the A54 flop case. Even there, if V1 has an Ace, he is DEFINITELY betting.. That’s the only way he plays… There is a good chance he will check AA, but even then, I am behind. V1 will definitely check all other pairs on this flop.. In that sense, I agree. 

As I had mentioned in the post, I am not interested in a min-cash in this tournament. I am not going to be folding until the bubble. ONLY reason why I considered a flat call preflop is that if I shove, I give the villain very good odds to call with his hand. I assume that poker is not only betting to get better hands to fold, but also making the villains err by giving them insufficient odds for a call. I am not doing that preflop with my shove. 

navinbits
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January 11, 2016 - 1:48 pm
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Foucault said
Lots of good responses here already, so I’ll just add that I’m not a fan of “open-folded AQ”. Don’t show your opponents your cards or tell them how you play. It is far more likely to hurt you than help you.

Andrew, why do you think so? I am not showing every other hand, and I decided to show this particular hand against this opponent because I was very sure that I was right and I wanted a confirmation from him. This time at least, it gave me a better table image and I got away with a couple of 3-bet bluffs with 9d8d and Kc4c from the blinds. I think this is partly due to people thinking I am capable of folding 2nd best hands and I am not married to those hands.

Foucault

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January 11, 2016 - 2:38 pm
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navinbits said

Foucault said
Lots of good responses here already, so I’ll just add that I’m not a fan of “open-folded AQ”. Don’t show your opponents your cards or tell them how you play. It is far more likely to hurt you than help you.

Andrew, why do you think so? I am not showing every other hand, and I decided to show this particular hand against this opponent because I was very sure that I was right and I wanted a confirmation from him. This time at least, it gave me a better table image and I got away with a couple of 3-bet bluffs with 9d8d and Kc4c from the blinds. I think this is partly due to people thinking I am capable of folding 2nd best hands and I am not married to those hands.

If you were very sure you were right, why did you want confirmation? Besides, seeing AA doesn’t really confirm anything. Just because he had AA doesn’t mean he wouldn’t have made the same play with a different hand. If you open the CO with KK, I 3-bet, you fold, and I show you AA, that doesn’t mean your fold was correct.

I’m not saying folding was wrong here, just that seeing your opponent’s hand didn’t give you any information, especially since you were pretty sure you were right anyway. You did, however, give away a lot of information about your own play and your perception of this Villain in particular. 

It’s hard to say definitively whether showing this hand had anything do with people folding to your 3-bets later. My guess is that it didn’t. It certainly doesn’t make sense that people would fold more often to your because they think you’re capable of a big fold. If anything, it should make them more willing to 4bet you.

When you show this, you’re basically saying, “Haha, I know what a nit you are.” That might cause the V to feel embarrassed, or to realize the mistake he’s making, and in any event to play better in the future.

P-aire 146
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January 11, 2016 - 3:16 pm
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I’m with Andrew here for lots of reason him and others have said.  STOP showing hands.  Everyone.  I’ll be the right to say I did it some back in the day at times.  As you play more and more, you see how much a mistake it actually is.  I don’t show any unless I’m called now. 

Your image is going to be your image regardless.  I like it when players show me their cards.  Now I know the chances of them having a hand the next hand are slim.  I think when you show you are giving away too much information.  And information is the key to being a successful player in this game. 

ltcolumbo
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January 15, 2016 - 3:14 pm
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On showing cards in this scenario: It’s not that I want the nit to realize how nitty he is (I assume he must know).  Rather it’s that I don’t want anyone else at the table to get that reinforced, nor do I want them to know I am smart enough to fold AQ there. 

And if you really do want to advertise, just say you folded AQ (or say you folded KQ or 22 or whatever), just don’t show it. 

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