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This is a hand from the Caesar’s Palace Weekend Afternoon Tournament. It’s a $235 buy in paying 9 spots out of 102. This hand was in the mid stages when there were between 35 and 40 players left.
H and V are the two big stacks at the table both well over 40 bbs deep (about 2x average stack). V has recently moved to the table. He doesn’t appear to be playing especially tricky, but his action suggests an awareness of good spots (i.e button raising after multiple limpers which got all folds and picked up a nice pot). He does not appear to be spewy, so let’s call him relatively TAG, possibly a little looser than true TAG if the situation warrants. He’ll definitely peel flops on a hand that has some potential.
Blinds are 800/1600/300 ante. Table is 8 handed so the pot before any preflop action is 4800. H is in the BB.
V limps UTG+2 folds to the SB who completes, H has Kh 7s and checks his option. Pot 7200.
Flop is Kd Jd 8c. SB Checks, H leads for 3500, V Calls, SB folds. Pot 14200.
Turn is 7c giving H top and bottom pair. H leads for 8000, V calls. Pot 30200. Pot is now about 19 bbs with 30+ bb effective stacks behind.
River is 9h.
What’s the optimal river line?
Thoughts on all streets appreciated.
bet for value…can get called by worse kings, possibly a jack…however, if you put him on diamonds, maybe a check can induce a bluff? but im most likely always gonna bet for value here…only logical hand that beats u is q10…in that case…you still have to blocker bet and see where you are at…if you get raised, its an easily fold (assuming player is capable of raising with busted diamonds) i just doubt a player who limps is ever going to be slow playing on 2 streets with hands like kj or 88….they are going to raise in fear of the draw heavy flop most likey….so i think you have the best hand here a huge percentage of the time….what ended up happening????
Given villian is somewhat TAG. I like a nice squeeze bet preflop. I think it takes it down a very large percentage of the time.
As played, I normally wouldn't mind a check on the flop for pot control and deception but the board is a little wet so your bet seems the right play. On the turn we are betting for value. The river is a little tricky cause QTs is in his range but unlikely and better two pairs are also unlikely. Seems like the best river play is bet for value here but I also feel like sometimes check/call is better just because pot is already plenty big and you dont wanna get raised for stacks. My nitty self leans more toward check/call given the board texture and pot size.
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August 3, 2011
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Flop lead and turn barrel I like. As played I check/call river because your donk lead on the flop looks like diamonds all day to me. Your hand does not look that strong to me as I don't think you have any set as you would obv raise KK and JJ pre and most likely 88 as well to play HU against V pre. Check/call for value especially since J10/Q10/K10 maybe A10 got there on the river. He pretty much always has to bet this river as diamonds missed and any 10 got there. Don't want to put yourself in an akward spot on the river so don't like betting.
Thanks for the input folks. I think the choice here is between a check/call line and a bet/fold line. I decided not to check as I thought the four to a straight on the board would encourage a busted flush draw to make a large river bluff. However, since any ten could also bet the river large I didn't want to put myself in the position of having to call a large bet that could literally be the nuts or nothing.
I elected to just repeat the turn bet of 8,000. I thought that sizing was good as it could still get a call from worse two pair hands (J9, 98, 97, 87) and could credibly enough represent a hand like KT or JT that would discourage a bluff.
V tanks for a bit and raises to 20,000. Although I gave it some thought, I stuck with my plan and let it go. Would anyone go bet/call here?
I'm nitty and think c/c is the best river line here
I'm not sure a limping hand could be strong enough to call 3 barrells unless he puts us on complete air and although this is an ugly river card it's perfect for him to bluff at too
I'm sure there would be an argument for bet calling here too, reserved for high level thinkers with great reading abilities imo
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