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Live poker question. open ended, flush draw. bet sizing question
britch
philly
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October 13, 2014 - 3:19 pm
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Hi guys. Played the $500 at Parx. Cashed, but I feel like this hand could have given me a real shot at a score. (or a real shot at busting).

villian 600,000 young aggro. seems better than most at the table. positionally aware. calls 3 bets light.

me 350,000 middle age. look young. hoodie. headphones. Havent shown down much except a hand where i floated a missed flop with aq , checked through turn, and called a bet on river when i hit my queen (i had been planning to bluff river). He showed ak.

ante 1000 blinds 5/1000
hand: villain raises cutoff to 22000. I call on button kq♥♥. blinds fold.
flop jt♥7♥villain bets 25k I call
turn 5c villain bets 30k. i raise to 62k. he tank calls
river 5s villain checks. I bet 70k…

Not sure about bet sizing. Was thinking of shoving but thought this looked stronger. Thoughts?

MovesLikeDarvin

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October 13, 2014 - 3:36 pm
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i think as played if you intend to bluff the river you should just jam. 70k makes it too easy for him to call, and represents about 25% pot if i tabulated it all together correctly.

raising the turn is kinda sexy vs raising the flop. might disguise that we have a FD (as many ppl raise the flop here). however, it sorta requires that you know he double barrels light, bc many players here will give up a lot of their range by the turn, so their double barrels will on average be stronger, and thus less willing to fold. our equity against many of these hands is still fine, but with one only card to come, peaks out at ~34%. if we have fold equity by winning on some rivers, we profit. i like the way you set up the hand in general but would prob commit to shoving the river. raising turn + cramming river looks really strong, and makes it him have to feel very confident in being right before he can call (its a lot of his stack too). 

fwiw i think my default is raising flop and pumping all in by the turn. the pot is already pretty big relative to our stack before he even cbets (68k vs our 328k stack from what i can tell), and we have piles of equity vs his range from the CO (or just about any hand for that matter). the worst hand we can be up against here for us is AJhh, where we are still 35%. We're a flip against AhAx, and are a slight favorite vs 98. We still have 40% against sets. if you make it like 86-93k on the flop and he calls, the pot is about the size of your remaining stack, such as that you can cram turn (or bet a commiting amount). 

britch
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October 13, 2014 - 4:17 pm
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forgot to mention that he had been double barreling. I thought floating flop and raising turn would look stronger…I also forgot to mention that he tanked the river and said ” i know you flopped a set”.

Love your videos! Looking forward to your next one. You, Andrew and Daryl have helped me cash in 3/4 of my last live events including an WSOP event in Vegas this year. Thanks.

P-aire 146
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October 14, 2014 - 9:13 am
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I think I like raising the flop……… you hit a monster draw.  I would think you would want to build the pot quick and poss get it in on the turn.  I would bet bigger on turn as well.  At least 75k.  A mini just makes an aggro kid/guy like your vill to call and see riv.

Foucault

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October 14, 2014 - 12:03 pm
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You're right to want to play this aggressively. Raising the flop is fine and probably should be your default play, but if you think V double barrels light then I like waiting for the turn. At the point I'd just shove, though, the min-raise really isn't consistent with how you should play a strong hand, and it gives V room to jam on you and put you in an awkward spot with some hands that may fold to a shove.

NeverAA
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October 14, 2014 - 12:22 pm
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Hi guys,

So how would this play sound?

Raise it to around 66k on the turn. If he flats then barrels again, jam it in. If he reraises, jam it in?

if he flats then checks, bet around 65% – 70% of the pot and jam it in on the river in case he was on a draw too or he had a weak pair?

MovesLikeDarvin

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October 14, 2014 - 8:44 pm
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britch said:

forgot to mention that he had been double barreling. I thought floating flop and raising turn would look stronger…I also forgot to mention that he tanked the river and said ” i know you flopped a set”.

Love your videos! Looking forward to your next one. You, Andrew and Daryl have helped me cash in 3/4 of my last live events including an WSOP event in Vegas this year. Thanks.

hey, thanks for the support!

yeah, with this specific read i really like raising the turn over raising the flop. if hes gonna fold to our raise on the turn, we get one extra bet. if not, we still have room to cram the turn. and youre RIGHT that it DOES look more like we flopped a set here when we do it on the turn vs flop. 

if the result was you got caught on the river, i think sizing up turn slightly and cramming river is the best.

what was result btw?

britch
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October 14, 2014 - 9:20 pm
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Called me after tanking with aj. 

 

Managed to chip back up enough to survive the bubble but  was severely short stacked, then lost a flip after my qj sooted reshove for 16 bbs got called by 66.  

 

Thanks for all the feedback.  I'm still not sure if he would have thought a shove was weaker or stronger.  Some of my most effective bluffs have been on river with value sizing, although this usually only works on pros.

MovesLikeDarvin

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October 14, 2014 - 9:26 pm
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yeah, i see how betting smaller “looks” stronger than shoving, but at the end of the day, its far easier for him to station off for 70k in a live tournament than it is for him to call 220-somethingk on the river, which will represent like 40% of his starting stack by now. i dont know if it would have made a difference with some hands, but AJo comes to mind as one that might have to find a fold.

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